It’s the season of miracles. One day’s worth of oil burns for eight days. A child is born to a virgin mother. The Eagles will return to the Super Bowl. OK, that last one is probably a bridge too far, but I know miracles happen because the asylum backlog is shrinking. Yes, shrinking.
As usual in asylum world, the news is not quite so straightforward, but let’s look at the newest data from the Asylum Division and try to break down what’s happening. The most recent report covers the months of July, August, and September 2018. The number of asylum cases pending in the United States is shown in the chart below:
| July 2018 | 320,663 |
| August 2018 | 320,314 |
| September 2018 | 319,202 |
So between July and September 2018, the backlog shrank by 1,461 cases, or about 0.5%. Prior to July, the backlog was still increasing, though for a few months growth had been pretty flat. This means that more cases are being completed than are being filed.
The first question is, Why is this happening? Looking at the data, it seems that the main reasons are that the number of new cases being filed is down and the number of cases being interviewed is up. Between July and September 2018, there were 23,257 new asylum cases filed. For the same period in 2017, there were 30,804 new cases filed. This represents a decrease of nearly 25%. Also, between July and September 2018, the Asylum Offices conducted 19,573 interviews. For this period in 2017, they conducted 15,405 interviews. Thus, the number of cases interviewed has increased by about 27%. The total number of cases completed during this time frame has also increased, from 16,852 in 2017 to 24,695 in 2018, an increase of almost 47%.
Why have the number of new cases gone down? The most obvious answer is that fewer people are able to get to the United States. Between the “Muslim ban,” the generally hostile attitude towards foreigners, and the Trump Administration’s machinations at the border, it is more difficult for people to come to our country. For example, in September 2017, the State Department issued 652,035 non-immigrant visas worldwide. During September 2018, the State Department issued 620,158 visas, which represents about a 5% decrease. However, for countries that “send” us asylum seekers, the drop appears much more dramatic. Take Venezuela, the top source country for asylum seekers. The number of B visas issued for Venezuelans dropped from 1,861 in September 2017 to 1,060 in September 2018, a drop of 43%. If fewer people are coming here, especially from troubled countries, it stands to reason that we will see fewer asylum applications.
Also, the Trump Administration has made its attitude towards non-Americans quite clear. It has also ginned up hostility and anger more generally. In a case of cutting off the nose to spite the face, I suppose making our country a less attractive place to live means that fewer people will want to come here.
Why have the number of interviews gone up? One explanation is that fewer Asylum Division resources are being deployed to the border, and so this is freeing up officers to interview affirmative asylum applicants.
Anyone who arrives at the border (or an airport) and who states that they need protection should receive a Credible Fear Interview (an initial evaluations of asylum eligibility). These interviews are conducted by Asylum Officers. When the officers are doing CFIs, they are not working on “regular” asylum cases. The large number of CFIs is widely believed to have led to the backlog. However, here we run into an anomaly. In FY2017, Asylum Officers issued 79,710 CFI decisions. In FY2018, they issued 97,728 decisions, an increase of nearly 23%. Somehow, despite a significant increase in CFIs, the Asylum Division managed to process more affirmative cases.
My guess is that this “anomaly” is the result of increased people power. The Asylum Division has hired large numbers of Officers who deal exclusively with CFIs. Many of these Officers perform interviews remotely (there is an office in Arlington, Virginia dedicated to CFIs). So perhaps this explains how the Asylum Division was able to make progress on affirmative cases while still processing large numbers of CFIs.
Aside from hiring more Officers, the Asylum Division has tried to increase productivity by identifying cases that have been filed more than 10 years after the applicant arrived in the United States, and to offer those applicants an opportunity to skip the interview and go directly to Immigration Court. Some applicants have filed asylum primarily as a vehicle to get into court, where they will seek other relief (usually Cancellation of Removal). However, the impact of this plan seems fairly marginal. The number of cases referred to court without an interview during the three-month period was 1,275 in 2017 and 1,680 in 2018. The total number of cases referred to Immigration Court based on a filing deadline referral (i.e., the applicant missed the one-year asylum-filing deadline, failed to demonstrate an exception to the rule, and probably received a truncated interview) was 5,138 in 2017 and 6,684 in 2018. Also, the number of “no shows” increased from 2,072 in 2017 to 3,040 in 2018. Collectively, all this probably made a modest contribution to increased productivity.
All this leads to the final, and probably most important question: How will all this affect people who are stuck in the backlog? I think the answer here is, It depends.
First and most obviously, it depends on whether this trend continues. I think there is good reason to believe that the trend will continue. Between the Trump Administration’s efforts to block people from coming to the U.S. and the Asylum Division’s seeming ability to simultaneously process CFIs and affirmative cases, I expect we will see continued progress on the backlog.
Second, it depends on which particular Asylum Office we are talking about. Some offices are dealing with their backlogs better than others. For example, in September 2018, some offices completed more cases than they received (Chicago, Los Angeles, Newark, and New York). Other offices received more cases than they completed (Arlington, Boston, Houston, Miami, New Orleans, and San Francisco). This changes month-to-month, and so it is difficult to guess how a particular case will ultimately fare, but you can see the data for yourself and make your own predictions.
Of course, all this can change quickly, depending on the state of the world, our government’s policies, and the ability of the Asylum Division to keep pace with new cases. But for now at least, the backlog is shrinking. For those stuck waiting, I suppose that is a rare bit of good news.
Hi Jason,
I applied for asylum November 26 2015- still waiting for the interview.
I have my EAD card expires January 2020- I have to pay for renewing again. This time will be 3 that I paid for the renewing. I wish I could get my interview and stop paying for this fees. It looks like it will take forever to get my inventory. I did try to expedite my case with my health issues and lost mom in my country. They refused me all the time. Also I changed my address and did notice from the immigration. It was 11106 Zip code- now it’s 10023 zip code – I assumed this Zip code is NJ office. Do you it will affect my case that I moved in to city and different office? I feel so hopeless about this interview and makes me tired this waiting process without any bulletin. I’ve been paying my tax since 3 years and working hard but don’t know. This country is not easygoing without seeing family and friends. My question is do you have any idea about this backlog thing? I just want to know when! Another 4 years or 1 year? I’m really tired. Thank you very much
Leyla
Unfortunately, no one knows. You can check whether the move causes you to change to a different asylum office – follow the link at right called Asylum Office Locator and enter the zip codes. If the asylum office does not change, then the move would likely have no effect on your case. If you have a new reason, you can try to expedite again (I wrote about that on March 30, 2017), or you might try to get Advance Parole to visit your family in a third country – I wrote about that on September 11, 2017. Take care, Jason
Thank you for the answer! I did try Advance Parol as well. Wanted to see my family in 2rd country hut they refused me again. They keep sending me a message that it’s not a humanitarian reason. I lost my mom, couldn’t attended for the funeral it’s been 2 years almost. My father is very old and has heart issues. Try to expedite for this reason as well. They denied again. I am so afraid that God forbid if something happens to my father don’t know what to do. I have a good job with insurance but missing my family. Still couldn’t live my grief about my mom. I left her home 4 years ago, now couldn’t even go to her cemetery. Sorry for the any inconvenience but I just want to ask you that if I change my lawyer anything could change? By the way, I checked my Zip code, it looks like my case is in NJ now. Let’s see if anything changes
Thank you again.
God bless you
Leyla
NJ is generally a faster office these days, and so you might want to try to expedite again. Before you do that, contact the NJ office and ask if they have your case (you can find their email on the Asylum Office Locator). What they are doing with AP is a real disgrace. They denied one of my clients whose mother was in the hospital in a third country. The reason: Her condition was “stable” and so it was not an emergency. I wish I could find the idiot who made that decision, but of course, they hide behind a wall of bureaucracy so it is easy (and cowardly) to deny cases. In any event, you may have better luck expediting in NJ, so I would give it a try. Take care, Jason
Hi Jason, this is in regards to my Nephew, he applied for Asylum in
April 2018
Biometrics July 3, 2018
Interview July 30,2018
work permit December 24, 2018
Today 05/1/2019 he received Notice Hearing of removal procedings for September 19, 2019. They also sent him a list of pro-bono Attorney, this is his Individual hearing, WHY DIDN”T HE GET A MASTER HEARING? he also got a letter from the Army that he was register and he never did. what can we do? I feel we have very little time to get a Lawyer who will be able to handle the case. His is from Venezuela and the court is in Dallas Tx, the highest State with Denial 🙁 I hope you can give us some directions thank you.
This seems wrong – I have not heard about someone going directly to an individual hearing. Maybe it is a new policy from them, but I do not see how that would work, as they need to have some idea about the case and make sure everything is ready to go before the individual hearing. In many cases, the dates on the NTA are not correct – you can call 800-898-7180 and enter his alien number (this is a computer, not a person). When instructed, press 1 and it will tell you the next court date. If it is still an individual, talk to a lawyer. He will need a lawyer anyway to assist with the case, and if he has a case in September, the sooner you find someone, the better. As for the Army letter, I have no idea what that is about. I suppose he should contact them and find out. I think as an asylum seeker, he is not eligible to join the Army. Take care, Jason
[…] growing since then, although it’s unclear how much credit should go to the switch. Other factors may also be playing a role: For example, the number of visas issued to Venezuelans, who […]
Dear Jason, thanks for the insightful analysis! I filed my case back in Oct 2017 and have been waiting for interview since then. I tried reaching out to local Houston office to check progress but did not get any information. Are you familiar with the workload and processing times in the Houston office?
Not really – the most recent case there, we filed and then expedited (based on a physical health problem). The above article is the latest I have seen about TX. If you were interested in expediting, I wrote about that on March 30, 2017. Take care, Jason
Hello Jason, Thank you for your professional information and analysis. I have two questions need your help.
1. I filed my case in July 2016, where I know that it is in an eternal backlog. Do you know the lastest time frame for LA office on the backlog? (Like which month of 2017 have already been interviewed.)
2. If I move my case to another location such as VA or Houston, will my case be on a new time scheduling or it will go into the backlog on the VA/Houston list? Does it worth to transfer my case to another office for faster interview scheduling (LA has a long wait)?
Thanks.
1 – I don’t know about LA, sorry. I do know that they are moving more quickly through their backlog than most other offices, so maybe they will get to you soon. Maybe. 2 – I do not know that it would help. You would still be in the backlog, and whether you somehow get a faster interview, I do not know. We once transferred a case from VA to San Francisco, and the person did get an interview pretty quickly, but I do not know why that happened. If you want to try to expedite the case, I wrote about that on March 30, 2017. Take care, Jason
Thank you for your kind words and detailed explanation.
I have read through the article and one more concern through that. How are we going to submit the expedite request? By mail? From my lawyer or myself…And if there is a standard guideline to follow.
You would have to contact the local asylum office about the procedure. It is best to have the lawyer involved. The lawyer needs to know what is happening with the case and also, the lawyer should know the procedure to expedite. Take care, Jason
Hi Jason
My work Authorization is due to expire in February so I would like to renew it as per Law. How do i go about it?
Is is the correct time to start processing the application for renewal?
Are there any charges to renew?
Could you please advise on this.
Thank you
Assuming you are eligible (and assuming your EAD is based on asylum pending), you should renew now. It normally takes 4 to 7 months to get the new EAD. However, you should have the receipt in about 4 weeks, and the receipt automatically extends the old card for 180 days. As for the procedure, you need to check the form I-765 and its instructions, available at http://www.uscis.gov. Take care, Jason
There is no more receipt from USCIS. At least not for me, located in LA. My lawyer said there will be a letter after sent in the renewal on Sep 2018. I did receive nothing till now and I called in On Dec2018 to USCIS where the officer told me to print their automatic extension notification online. She told me there will be no letter issuing for the extension. 🙁
I did a post on January 25, 2017 that might help. At the bottom of the post are some links to USCIS websites that explain about the automatic extension. I am not sure if that answered the question, but let me know. Take care, Jason
My asylum case is in the backlog because , I filled my case in March 2016 and waiting for the interview .
I tried to reached up the asylum office but no result due to the new regulations.
How long does it take to get my interview?
Thank you
No one can say, and different offices are dealing differently with their backlogs. If you have a reason, you can try to expedite. I wrote about that on March 30, 2017. Take care, Jason
I filed my asylum in November 2018. Got a fingerprint in December 2018 and will have the interview in January 2019. I am on F2 type visa and file the asylum after 1 year. today I got nervous since my attorney told me maybe getting interview early after filing is a sign that officer does not trust my story. However, I thought this is because of new LIFO system since I believe my case is strong. Do you have any idea about the relation between the timeline of the interview and the officer view?
It is an odd thing for your attorney to say, and as far as I know, it is not true. I have asked the director of my local office (Virginia) about how cases are scheduled under LIFO, and she explained that it is random. They have a certain number of interview slots, and a computer randomly picks cases to fill those slots. The strength of the case has nothing to do with this (in some instances, people get an early interview, but those are people who have been in the US for 10+ years and may be subject to the one-year asylum filing rule; maybe the attorney was thinking of this?). Take care, Jason