One of President-elect Trump’s key campaign promises is the “mass deportation” of “illegals.” Now that Mr. Trump is preparing to assume the reins of power, there is understandable fear among immigrants and asylum seekers. What does the once-and-future President mean by “mass deportation”? Who will be affected? How will these plans be carried out?
The short answer is: We don’t know. Neither Mr. Trump nor his incoming staff has provided much detail about their plan. Here, we’ll review what we do know, and also take a look at the legal and logistical difficulties inherent in removing large numbers of people from the United States.
First, who will be targeted? Tom Homan, the acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) during President Trump’s first term and the designated “Border Czar” for Mr. Trump’s upcoming term has stated that the Administration will target “unauthorized immigrants with a criminal past” and “immigrants who’ve already been ordered out of the country by a judge but who have yet to leave.”
According to ICE, there are about 663,000 “non-citizens with criminal convictions or pending charges” in the United States. However, not everyone with a criminal conviction is deportable, and non-citizens with serious criminal convictions are already being deported, so this part of Mr. Trump’s plan is nothing new. Of course, people with pending charges are innocent until proven guilty, and are generally not deportable unless they are convicted. The most common “migrant” crimes are non-violent, and include traffic offenses, immigration offenses, forgery, and larceny.
ICE also estimates that there are about 1.3 million people with final orders of removal (deportation orders) who have not left the country.
So between convicted and accused criminals and people who failed to depart when ordered, there are about 2 million non-citizens who appear to be targets for the “mass deportation” plan, at least according to Tom Homan. While this figure represents the low end estimate for the new Administration’s deportation goals, Mr. Homan is correct that many of these 2 million non-citizens can be legally removed from the United States (exceptions might include migrants who cannot be deported pursuant to the UN Convention Against Torture or people whose countries will not take them back).
A higher number has been proposed by Mr. Trump, who has pledged to deport “between 15 million and 20 million people” and to launch “the largest deportation program in American history.” Presumably, everyone who is here “illegally” would be subject to removal under this plan. But what is an “illegal” immigrant? Speaking as one who has practiced immigration law for more than 20 years, I have no idea. That’s because there is no such term in the immigration law.
The Pew Research Center defines “unauthorized immigrant” as any immigrant who is not a naturalized U.S. citizen, a Green Card holder, an asylee or refugee, or a person in the United States with “temporary residency” (people on student or work visas). By this definition, in 2022 (the most recent year for which we have data), there were 11 million “unauthorized immigrants” in the United States. However, more than 3.1 million of these “unauthorized immigrants” are not illegally in the U.S. They include asylum seekers (about 1.6 million in 2022), people with Temporary Protected Status (650,000), Dreamers (595,000), and migrants with other pending humanitarian applications (300,000). According to Pew, the remaining 7.8 million “unauthorized immigrants” have no legal status and no application pending, and are presumably deportable. This is a far cry from the numbers cited by Mr. Trump.
Could the new Administration deport people with temporary status or with pending applications, like asylum? The President has wide latitude to implement the immigration law, and certain statuses, such as TPS and DACA, can probably be terminated by the Executive Branch. Such a move could be challenged under the Administrative Procedures Act (APA), which prohibits executive actions that are arbitrary and capricious. If these statuses did end, the affected non-citizens would need to seek other ways to stay legally, or they would be subject to removal.
As I see it, asylum seekers are more secure. That’s because non-citizens have a right to seek asylum under the law, and the President does not have the authority to change the law–only Congress can do that, and such a change seems highly unlikely. In part, that’s because Congress rarely gets much done, but also, I know from my lobbying efforts that at least some Republicans support asylum and would not agree to major changes in the system. However, the President could impose all sorts of limits on asylum, including on the asylum-pending work permit (which is a good reason to renew now). Such actions would be subject to the APA, but last time, the Trump Administration did its darnedest to make asylum more difficult, and I would expect an even more concerted effort this time.
How will the “mass deportation” plan be implemented? Tom Homan states that the new Administration will use the U.S. military to assist with “non-enforcement work,” which will free up ICE officers to “look for the bad guys.” There has been talk about creating a large camp to use as a staging ground for removals, and the President-elect has floated the idea of reviving the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to strip non-citizens of due process rights so they can be more quickly deported. Whether any of this will pass Constitutional muster with the Supreme Court, we do not know, but the Court has a conservative super majority, and so I imagine that anything is possible.
Legal issues aside, there will be serious logistical challenges to implementing deportations on a mass scale. For one thing, it will be difficult to locate many non-citizens, especially those who already have deportation orders and are presumably not updating their addresses with USCIS. Even if ICE knows the address of a particular person, it takes resources to pick up and hold that individual until removal can be arranged. If this is attempted on a large scale, it will be very disruptive to many communities and industries (agriculture, construction, restaurant), and will likely result in significant push back–or at least lack of cooperation–from large segments of the population. Finally, many foreign countries may be unwilling to assist with these removals and some will refuse to accept deportations from the United States. In short, moving so many people against their will is a vast undertaking, and will be difficult to accomplish given limited resources and limited public appetite for mass removals.
So far at least, the incoming Administration’s deportation plan seems a bit half-baked. Even so, it is causing significant fear among non-citizens and their families, which is part of the point. Hopefully, for legal, logistical, and political reasons, the Administration’s intentions will not be fully realized. For now, we can only wait and see how things develop, and get ready together for whatever is to come.
Hello Jason,
I am not sure whether you have already experienced this with your clients. The city I live in has a USCIS Service Center but several months after they received my adjustment of status application, they transferred it to another office where my application was pending for nearly a year. Today, I received notification that my application was transferred to new office though my application is already outside processing time. What could this mean? Do you think they sent it back to the Service Center in the city I live in? If so, will the new office do the final adjudication? This country has been killing me emotionally. Where can I view the notice on my USCIS account? Please advise.
Hi Jason, could you please help us to navigate this question? How should I indicate the principal applicant status when filing I-485 based on granted asylum for myself and my dependents? Should I list myself as the principal applicant (as in the asylum case), or should we each file individually (without designating principal and derivative roles) and send all applications together in one envelope?
I am not quite sure I understand the question. Each person who files an I-485 is a principal applicant. Asylee derivatives each need to file their own I-485 to get a green card. As long as each person has a complete application packet (including the medical exam), you can put everything in one envelope. There is a question on the I-485 asking for info about the principal applicant, but when we complete that for an asylee, we leave that section blank (we write N/A). Take care, Jason
Are you talking about the information after 245 ina question? About petition number and etc? That information is for different type of adjustment and since you are applying as an asylee that info can stay empty or you can write N/A , since you don’t have a petition.
Also, check instructions because you will have to submit extra documents like marriage certificate, birth certificate and etc.
Hello sir, im an asylum seeker my asylum was filed in 2022 with uscis ( LA asylum office) December 2 years ago. I got my ead in 2023 july. I moved to upstate new York ( Albany ny capital )recently and i checked asylum office locator it says my new asylum office based on my new address should be new jersey office not new york office ? Will my move result in quicker asylum interview scheduling. I mean have you seen that in your practice. Moving to another asylum office schedules interview fast or im stuck in backlog like i was for last 2 years.
Is new jersey asylum office scheduling interviews faster or no ?
No office is moving quickly and it is unlikely you will get an interview soon. You can try to expedite – I wrote about that on March 23, 2022. If that fails, you can try a mandamus lawsuit to force the asylum office to interview you. For expedite requests and mandamus cases, the NJ office is probably better than the LA office, which is one of the busiest offices in the US and I’ve heard there is a 2-year backlog even for mandamus cases. Take care, Jason
Hi Jason,
Thank you for everything you do.
Do you see a situation where scheduling of asylum interviews, even those back logged can speed up under the Trump administration because they will want to determine your eligibility to stay fast? If you are not eligible you will be sent away fast.
Do you see this like something that could happen once Trump takes office?
I do think that is possible. Many asylum officers are assigned to work on cases at the border – they care called credible fear interviews and are initial evaluations of asylum eligibility. These take most of the resources from the Asylum Office. And so if fewer cases are coming in, more officers should be available to interview asylum applicants. Of course, we do not know what the new Administration will do or how it will work, but I do think there is a chance that the asylum office will speed up. For that reason, I recommend you gather your evidence and make sure you are ready for the interview, just in case it gets scheduled. Take care, Jason
Hi Jason,
I hope this message finds you well. My RTD request (i-131) was denied yesterday. I am an asylum seeker in the USA and the Immigration Court granted my asylum application in October 2022. I applied for a Greencard and i-131 at the same time around April 2023. I received my greencard in May 2024 but my RTD request was denied this week. When I was applying, I requested RTD and selected 1b as the application type in the form. Not Advance parole. But the reasoning behind the denial was a bit strange and looked incorrect to me.
1. Do I need to pay a $800 filing fee if I decide to file form i-290B?
2. Do you think the denial was a mistake or filed incorrectly?
The letter states that “In order to be eligible for an Advance Parole Document, you must have a pending Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, filed with USCIS.
USCIS records show that your Form I-485 was approved on May 25, 2024. At that time, you adjusted status to that of a lawful permanent resident of the United States. Because you no longer have a pending Form I-485, you are not eligible for an Advance Parole Document.
If you desire to travel outside the United States, you may request temporary evidence of lawful permanent residence and be issued an i-551 stamp at your local USCIS office. You must bring your approval letter and valid passport.
Therefore, this application is denied.
There is no appeal to this decision. If you disagree with this decision, you may file a motion to reopen or reconsider pursuant to 8 C.F.R. § 103.5 on a Form I-290B, Notice of Appeal or Motion, within 30 days (33 days if this notice was received by mail) of the date of this decision. If USCIS does not receive a properly filed motion, this decision is final.”
It sounds like USCIS believed that you filed for Advance Parole. If you completed the parts of the form for the RTD and indicated that you wanted an RTD, it is a USCIS mistake. I would double check the form you sent to be sure. If this is your mistake, it is best to just fill a new I-131 and send it again. If it is their mistake, maybe you want to try calling them (800-375-5283) to see what they say. In practical terms, I think the I-290B is not a good idea. It takes a long time and is expensive. Even if you can avoid the fee due to USCIS error, it still takes too long. If you cannot resolve the issue by calling USCIS, I would just re-send the I-131 form, explain the prior error (and provide evidence about that), and ask them to expedite on that basis. Take care, Jason
Hi Jason
Happy Thanksgiving. I have been struggling with whether to move to see if I can get an interview arrangement. My case has been more than 3 years and I have not received an interview arrangement. Even with the expedited order, it will take 5 years to file an application in Los Angeles. Can you give me some advice? Thank you
It’s up to you, as some officers may be easier to expedite than others (such as LA). However, your better bet may be to try to expedite and if that fails, you can try a mandamus lawsuit. I wrote about expediting on March 23, 2022. If you want to move to a new office, you will have to physically move to that location. I have not seen any recent data about the asylum offices, as I think they have not posted anything. I posted the most up-to-date info I have on July 13, 2022 and so maybe that will give you an idea about which asylum offices are better than others (as I think I discuss in that article, the data is of limited value and also, at this point, it is a few years old). Take care, Jason
Hi Josan,
Thank you for your response and all the effort you’ve put in for us. Are you saying that even in Los Angeles, there are still officers who might process cases faster? I’m a paraplegic and rely on a wheelchair, so moving to another city would not be easy for me. That’s why I need your professional advice: should I stay in Los Angeles and continue requesting opportunities from the asylum office, or would it be better to move to another city? Because i understand that in some places, you can file a motion to expedite after three years, but in Los Angeles, it takes five years to file one. This is why I’m considering whether I should move to a different city.
Curious to hear a memorable case of yours that ended up in removal order.
Popcore for storytime.
I wrote something about this on January 20, 2015. Take care, Jason
Hello,
Happy Thanksgiving!
Please can you help answer a question for a step I want to take in few days please?
I am an asylum seeker that has been denied both by USCIS and court. I am currently in Appeal with BIA but I have not heard from them in 2 years. I have a social security and 5 years work permit.
My plan with my husband is to file for Concurrent filing of EB1 and Adjustment of status ( file petition to receive I797 receipt notice, and use the receipt notice to file for adjustment of status I485) in the next few days but my question is if I am qualified because I spent over 6 months before filing asylum and I am currently in appeal.
In general, such an application is unlikely to work. There are exceptions to the rule, and I think you need to talk to a lawyer to evaluate your eligibility, whether (and how) you need to leave the US to get the green card, or whether there is some way to get your green card without leaving the US. Getting the GC this way would likely require you to dismiss the BIA case without a deportaton order, and that will likely be very difficult at this point in the process. I wrote more about this issue on August 28, 2018 and September 6, 2018, but you would need to talk to a lawyer. I would recommend that you have the lawyer write down, step by step, how you will get from where you are today to having the GC, whether you need to leave the US, and what are the risks. Take care, Jason
Happy Thanksgiving,
This could be off topic but important to me
So I am in US for the last 10 years on pending asylum with no interview. I have been through bad and good over these years.
Currently I am worried about a decision which I made in 2021 during COVIDlock down-opening period. I was kind of naive to online dating back then. As a result I found myself on seeking website which is famous site for sugar dating (I had no idea when I joined, I saw their add on snapchat, I am male). So I paid membership fee and met two ladies. I quickly learn It was not what I really wanted so I left that site. When I made the payment using my credit card (my bank flagged the payment but it was processed later). Now I found out that the site was controversial over years. It was the site where the MAGA Matt Gaetz met underage girls. I have never seen any underage girls on that site and the one I met were both grown women with no indication of any sexual exploitation or trafficking
So now my question is how fucked am I for making a payment to that site using my credit card? Does it show on background check after my asylum interview? Should I prepare pack?
I highly doubt this would appear in a background check and even if it did, I highly doubt it would have any effect on anything (maybe if the website is specifically to find underage girls, that would be different, but that does not seem to be the case). Also, if the government or anyone did learn about it, it sounds like you can explain. In short, this does not sound like much of an issue. Take care, Jason
Hi Jason,
last week you mentioned that someone can used a copy of their passport to apply for refugee travel document after winning asylum. My passport is in French, do I have to translate it?
We always send a copy of the passport – the photo/bio page and if there is a US visa, the US visa page and I-94. Most passports have the photo/bio page in the country’s language and English, but if not, it would probably be a good idea to provide a translation (and a certificate of translation), as the next Administration (which will process the form) is likely to be more strict. Take care, Jason
Hi Jason is necessary to send the passport and Visa pictures for RTD application? The USCiS page don’t mention this.
No,
I have applied for my RTD with Drivers License and IJ signed order. If you have i-94 attach that. They also don’t ask for passport pictures, but i have submitted them.
I have always sent a copy of the passport and the 2 photos, among other items. Some people do not have a passport, and so they cannot include that document and that has never been a problem, but I like to include it if we have it. You can check the I-131 instructions at http://www.uscis.gov to see the needed documents to be sure about what to send. Take care, Jason
Hello Jason,
Hope you are doing well. After asylum interview you can be approved, refer to court but what will happen when they denied your application after asylum interview at USCIS asylum office. What are the option if you got denied? Please explain.
Thank you.
JImmy
If the case is denied, it means you still have some lawful status in the US, and so you will continue being here in that lawful status. You can re-apply for asylum again or you can apply for some other type of status. I wrote more about asylum denials on February 21, 2018 if you are interested. Take care, Jason
You said that some republicans support asylum…would you like to identify them for me ?
It will help me to use my limited resources and time to do research them and support them and their messages…
Our lobbying efforts are not public information, but we have met with at least 3 or 4 Republican offices in the House. Take care, Jason
Thanks for the info.
3 OR 4 republican offices in the house probably are not enough…too marginal…
But keep up the good work, more republicans in the house and in the senate hopefully.
I should have said that I met with 3 or 4 Republicans. The group has met with others, but I do not know how many. Take care, Jason
Hi Jason,
Can a bad credit score affect your application to naturalize as count of moral character?
Also, can a suspended license (Due to minor traffic violations) affect your application to naturalize?
Thank you,
I do not see how either of these problems would have an effect on the naturalization case, as long as the traffic violation was not a criminal offense. Take care, Jason