The American Immigration Council (AIC) has a new web page that collects and organizes statistical information from USCIS. The data spans the period from FY2016 through FY2025 (October 2015 through September 2025), and covers most areas of immigration: humanitarian, family-based, employment, and work permits, among others. Organizing USCIS data this way reveals some interesting patterns, and may help set expectations for people with pending cases.
To fully appreciate the data, it’s worth spending some time on the AIC web page. Here, we’ll examine a few of the trends revealed by AIC, with an emphasis on asylum and asylum-adjacent applications.
Before we get to the humanitarian forms, let’s look at the overall picture at USCIS. At the end of September 2025 (the most recent data available), there were a total of 11,651,012 cases of all types pending at USCIS. New cases received by the Agency have been dropping during the Trump Administration. During the last three months of the Biden Administration, USCIS received 3.2 million new cases. During the last three months of FY2025, USCIS received less than 2.6 million new cases. That’s more than an 18% drop. Certainly a portion of the decrease would relate to fewer non-citizens coming to the U.S. and filing immigration forms. The numbers may also be down because some people are leaving or were deported, and because others have decided that seeking immigration benefits is not worth the expense, the risk or the long wait.
You might guess that with fewer applications being filed, USCIS would be able to process pending applications more quickly, but the data generally shows the opposite. Comparing the last quarter of FY2024 to the last quarter of FY2025, the overall USCIS backlog has grown by more than 20%. The reasons for the slowdown are not entirely clear, but USCIS has lost about 10% of its personnel during the Trump Administration. In addition, much of the Agency’s focus has shifted from processing applications to looking for fraud.
Turning to asylum cases, the AIC data shows that on September 30, 2025, there were 1,435,560 cases pending. That is down from the all-time high of 1,548,261 on March 31, 2025. Prior to March 2025, the backlog had been growing steadily, with the most rapid growth occurring during President Biden’s term, particularly between 2022 and 2025, after the pandemic ended and travel become easier.
According to the AIC data, the asylum backlog is shrinking for two reasons: fewer people are applying for asylum and USCIS is completing more cases. Between January and March 2025 (a peak period for new applications), 153,786 people filed affirmatively for asylum; between July and September 2025, only 43,480 people applied for asylum. Completion data is more up-and-down, but between July and September 2025, USCIS completed 116,795 cases. AIC estimates that if new filings and case completions continue at this same rate–and there is good reason to think that they will not–the asylum backlog would be completely cleared by the end of 2028.
While I would not expect new asylum filings to increase (at least under the current Administration), I do expect case completion rates to go down. That’s because the Asylum Offices have been “completing” many cases by declaring that they do not have jurisdiction and referring the cases to Immigration Court without a decision on the merits. Indeed, nearly 85% of cases completed between July and September 2025 were dismissed without an interview. I’m guessing that most of these cases are for people who entered the U.S. at the Mexican border and who should have been referred to court immediately. They were not, and now USCIS is “correcting” that problem. As the Asylum Office runs out of such cases, they will be forced to conduct more interviews and make more decisions on the merits, which will likely slow down the process and result in fewer completions.
In terms of grant rates, the AIC data shows that approval rates at the Asylum Office have fallen, but not as much as you might expect. The approval rate for July to September 2025 was 5.1% and the denial rate was 10.4% (the remaining 84.5% of cases were dismissed without a decision). Meaning that for cases decided on the merits, about a third were granted. This is comparable to (or better than) the approval/denial rates during the first 20 months of the Biden Administration (after that, approval rates increased). So while we are seeing a higher denial rate at the Asylum Office, the large majority of these denials are cases that were selected for dismissal based on lack of jurisdiction. In other words, it is still possible to win a case that is decided on the merits.
For Employment Authorization Documents (EADs), the AIC data shows that between July and September 2025, the wait time for an initial asylum-pending (category c-8) EAD was one month, which is a bit longer than at the end of President Biden’s term, when the wait time was 0.6 months. The wait time to renew a c-8 EAD actually improved during this same period–from 3.4 months to 1.4 months. Unfortunately, since this data came out, USCIS has further shifted its focus to fraud and also put a “hold” on EADs for people from “banned” countries, and so any positive EAD news contained in the AIC data has largely been erased by more recent developments.
In a future post, we’ll discuss what the AIC data has to say about I-730 petitions for family members of asylees.
If you have a pending application with USCIS, it’s worth checking out the AIC web page. While much of the news is not great, there may be some comfort in having a better idea about what is–and is not–happening at USCIS.
I am an asylum seeker and I live in Michigan. I recently got a ticket on the mail saying that I didn’t stop for a school bus driver. I have a court hearing about that. I don’t want this to really impact my asylum case at all. I don’t recall driving the car, and I want to dispute the ticket. The court agreed to let me appear online via Zoom. I want to dispute the ticket and just erase it from my record, not only so that my insurance rates don’t go up, but also because I want to have my records clean. I can’t afford a lawyer to represent me in the case, nor do I think that this case warrant a lawyer, because I was issued a ticket based on a video. But the ticket presumed that I was the driver, because the car is under my registered name. I want to challenge that assumption—namely that I was driving the car when the ticket was issued. How do I challenge that assumption in front of the Judge? And what are other strategies that I might challenge a ticket that was issued to the registered owner of the car? A ticket that was issued based on a video?
I have not done such a case, and so I cannot advise you about that. However, it sounds like a traffic ticket and not a criminal incident, and so even if you have to pay a fine, it should have no impact on your pending asylum case. Take care, Jason
There was a moment that I felt bad for my persecutors…but after examining what they have done, I concluded that they are despicable and should not be forgiven.
To all the asylum seekers out there: You deserve happiness and safety and you are the one living your life and have your best interest at heart. Never let others manipulate or gaslight you. I chose not to forgive because the harm is irreparable. I don’t think I will have closure but I believe justice should be served and justice will be served.
For example, if a person received FGM…
Can they forgive the cutters ? I imagine that, even if asylum seekers are granted asylum, they will never be able to reach closure for their harm…right ?
Hi Jason, I have a question I am planning to travel to UK on refugee travel document I have a green card too since 2024. I got a uk visa recently to meet my mom. My RTD is gonna expire in September 2026. I am not planning to travel next week. My question is it gonna be travel in boarding because it’s less than 6 months validity of RTD and how about coming back to the USA regarding the validity of RTD and overall immigration. I am one of 75 countries ban list
As long as the RTD is still valid, you should be able to return to the US, even if there is only a day or validity remaining. The ban on the 75 countries should also not be an issue, as that is only for an immigration visa, and not for someone traveling and returning. In terms of going to the UK, I do not know what is required in terms of validity on the RTD. Maybe their embassy website gives some ideas, or you can try to call the embassy or even your airline to ask. Take care, Jason
I feel that the asylum community needs to participate in some way in the 2026 and 2028 election.
In the 2028 presidential election, who is the most electable Democrat against either the current Vice President or the current Sec. State ?
If we can identify this person, we can steward our resources and have the best shot at helping the asylum community by electing the most electable Democrat…
I have a curious question…
If immigrants are a net gain to U.S. economy…why then restrict immigration ?
No offense, but I feel white people like money a lot…So I am just curious…
“The white man’s dollar is his god” – Ida B. Wells
Lying about powerless groups and portraying them as a threat has long been a path to power. And so while immigrants commit less crimes than native born citizens and are a strong net positive to the economy, the Trump Administration has used the phony threat of immigrants to increase its own power. Take care, Jason
Is this…hunger for power more intense than the hunger for money ?
Particularly for Trump, many people see and portray him as a successful businessman…
Doesn’t he like money ? If he likes money, why then he does something that is to the detriment of his money ? Or he likes power more than money so he is willing to trade some lost net positive for some power ?
Sorry, just curious…
As a political asylee, I was inspired to attend law school, and to specialize in immigration law. Few law professors (whose name I won’t mention) said that immigration law is the hottest thing to major on at the moment. But I spoke with an immigration lawyer, in the Midwest, who gave me a discouraging and dim view, saying that the cases they receive in their office has basically went down drastically, to the point where they are not making ends meet—a proposition that I find surprising. That led me to ask a fundamental question about good lawyers and bad lawyers. I know you have written on the subject, but let me ask here again, on the criteria through which one ought to distinguish between a good and a bad lawyer.
As I understand, a lawyer to a client is what the doctor to a patient. Good doctors fix the problem that the patient brings; and good lawyers fix the problem that the client brings. So lawyers are problem-solvers, and advocates. But sometimes I meet with lawyers whose advocacy falls below the threshold of the average person. Sometimes I find that I can be a better advocate for myself, simply because the lawyer is not interested in researching the case.
For example, I have been trying to search and determine the issue asylum seekers and in-state tuitions, and found lawyers who specialize in that specific niche, but whose knowledge in the matter was so pathetic, so below what I was able to find through my own research. For future reference, how could know determine between good vs. bad lawyers.
There are good and bad lawyers, but these days, things are more difficult as rules are often changing and in many cases, the government is not following the rules. To me, a good lawyer listens to your problem, tells you the law and the options, and helps you think about what is best for you. We do not make decisions, we provide information that hopefully allows the person to make the best decision in their circumstances. In terms of in-state tuition, I doubt many lawyers know about this; maybe if they encountered it for a past client, but it is something that could be researched, and so maybe you could do that yourself or hire a lawyer who is able to look into that question. Take care, Jason
Hello Jason,
I wanted to get your input regarding joing a multiplaintif lawsuit (I have a pending asylum base N400 application and im from ome of yhe 39 countries) does joing such law suits increase risk of retaliatioj by USCIS, what is your opinio on those.
Thanks.
My experience with USCIS is that they do not retaliate when a person brings a lawsuit to get the case moving. These days, of course, you never know, but I do not know how they would retaliate even if they wanted to. I suppose if there was something in your record that was inconsistent or problematic, they could use that to try to deny citizenship or reopen an old case, but if there is nothing like that, I do not know what they could do. If this is a big worry, you can just wait to see how the lawsuit goes, and if it works, there will likely be additional lawsuits in the future and you could join one of those. Take care, Jason
I witnessed the incompetence of international offices of different schools.
Typically, I would say, after immigration attorneys, these people should be best suited to address in state tuition for noncitizens.
The fact that they rarely branch outside student/scholar visas is concerning. They are either intentional which is discriminatory to other classes of noncitizens, or they are just lazy and incompetent, couldn’t bother to read more about INA.
I expect them to be semi-immigration lawyers in terms of status, immigration, visa issues. They need to be a bit more capable to serve in their roles.
Hi Jason, I have a question related ice detention and bond, if someone doesn’t have a citizen or green card holder as sponsor for bond, what are other options? Also do you take bond / habeas corpus cases? Context – I have pending asylum for the last 5 years in NYC, entered with B2, no other status – want to be prepared in case of detention. Would it be something you could help me or your law firm? Thank you.
Our firm does such cases all the time. However, the purpose of a habeas is usually if the judge refuses to allow a bond hearing (a common practice these days). The habeas is generally used to force the immigration judge to hold a bond hearing. In your case, since you entered on a B2 visa, you are eligible for a bond hearing with the immigration judge and so a habeas would probably not be needed. The key, though, is to move quickly. I just did a consult for a woman who was interviewed at the NY asylum office, detained at the interview for unknown reasons, and then shipped to Louisiana, where she is currently detained and deciding whether to pursue her case or give up and leave. Although she was eligible for bond, the immigration judge denied bond for (in my opinion) illegitimate reasons, and so she is stuck in detention. Potentially she could do a habeas at this point, since the judge’s bond ruling was so bad, but even the federal judges in Louisiana are often unhelpful and slow. While I do not expect that detentions at asylum interview will become common, we will have to see how this develops, and so it would be a good idea to have a lawyer, or at least have a lawyer “on call” who you can contact if something goes wrong, so the lawyer can try to prevent you from being moved to another location and could also file a bond motion to try to get you released if you are detained. Take care, Jason
Can you please share more context on the detainee in NYC? I also have asylum, and expecting to have interview in the next couple weeks. Did she have criminal history, or entered illegally? Only people I heard who were detained were people with DUI, or someone who entered with CPB One app.
I do not have many details, as she was not my client – I just did a consult with her friend, who may not have had all the details either. If the friend’s info is correct, the asylum seeker had no criminal history and the only issue was that she did not file for asylum within one year of arriving. In many cases where I hear about this, the person I am speaking with does not have all the info, so I do not want to jump to any conclusions. However, obviously we need to keep an eye on whether USCIS starts detaining people at the asylum office. If I have news, I will try to post about it here. Take care, Jason
Hello Everyone!
This page has been a resource for my immigration process since 2015 when I started my asylum journey. My immigration journey has ended with my citizenship approved. This is just to say thank you to this forum and Jason specifically. Jason has been a light of hope during our ups and downs with immigration processes we went through. The last consultation session I had with Jason had helped me to make decisions when I was spit between ideas. Jason made a great analysis and gave me his recommendations. Thanks again Jason!
Here is my timeline:
Applied asylum: 2015
Approved asylum: 2018
Approved green card : 2021
Approved citizenship: 2026
Good luck everyone!
Congrats! Could you please share how long it took to get citizenship from the day you sent application for citizenship?
Thank you for the kind words and Congratulations on finally finishing your journey! Take care, Jason
Congratulations on reaching citizenship after such a long journey. Wishing you all the best in this new chapter!
My timeline is very similar. I’m a derivative asylee and currently in the same stage you were in before approval. I submitted my N-400 on January 20, 2026, and I’m still waiting for my interview to be scheduled. Posts like yours definitely give hope to many of us still in the process. Thanks for sharing your experience!
If you don’t mind sharing, what was your field office and how long did it take from N-400 submission to interview/citizenship approval?
Also, if you’re comfortable sharing, could you shed some light on how your interview experience went? It would really help others who are still waiting in the process.
Hi Jason. Thanks for sharing this new resource.
It shows that processing time for GC based on asylum is at 11.9 months.
Even with delayed data, USCIS processing time page didn’t show this number in 2025 or 2026.
Do you know where this disconnect is coming from?
AIC is a reliable organization, but I did not look to see where they get the data. I think directly from USCIS. Maybe from Freedom of Information Act requests. Remember that much of the slowdown in GC processing is due to the travel ban and to new rules that went into effect after September 2025 (when the data was created). I believe AIC will update their web page when they get new information, and so we will get more of an idea about how the ban is affecting overall processing when that happens. Take care, Jason