The Ineffable Backlog (and a Bit of Good News)

by Jason Dzubow

Someone–maybe a new age guru–once defined for me the Buddhist concept of time: Once every hundred years, a monk walks up to a mountain and brushes it lightly with a feather. In a short time, the mountain will be eroded to nothing.

This is also good way to think about the asylum backlog. If you assume that the mountain is growing. And you assume that the monk sometimes forgets to show up.

If you’re stuck in the backlog, you don’t need anyone to tell you how slow it is. The wait is particularly painful for asylum seekers separated from spouses and children, but it is bad for everyone. The effects are psychologically and financial, lives are put on hold, career and education opportunities are missed, time with loved ones is lost forever. People who are often already traumatized are re-traumatized by the endless waiting and uncertainty.

Things that move faster than the asylum backlog.

So what’s happening with the backlog lately? The latest data we have is from June 2018. It’s not always easy to understand the statistics from the asylum office, at least for me, but here, I will discuss what we know.

First off, the backlog, which has been growing for years, seems to have leveled off this Spring. Between April and June 2018, the backlog grew from 319,056 cases to 319,563 cases. That’s a growth rate of less than 0.1% per month. Does this mean that the Asylum Division is finally getting a handle on the backlog? Maybe, but I think it is still too soon to know. One issue is that when the system changed from FIFO to LIFO in January 2018, the volume of new cases dropped. Now that lawyers and applicants have mostly adjusted to the new system, we might expect a higher volume of cases post-June. Also, it seems more people have been arriving at the Southern border lately, and this likely will divert resources that would otherwise have been used to adjudicate affirmative asylum cases. In any event, we’ll have to keep an eye on the overall numbers to see whether the trend from this Spring continues.

Second, from the chart below, which contains information from June 2018, you can see that some offices are doing better than others in terms of interviews and decisions. A number of offices are completing more cases than they are receiving (Chicago, LA, Newark, NY, and San Francisco). Logically, you would think this means that these offices are interviewing all new cases that come in, and making progress on backlogged cases. But I am not so sure that is true. If you look at the number of interviews actually conducted, you can see that only Los Angeles and Newark are interviewing more cases than they are receiving. So for me at least, how many new cases and backlogged cases are being interviewed and decided is still something of a mystery (also, remember, these numbers are just a snapshot from one month–June 2018).

 

Office New Cases Interviews Scheduled/Conducted Cases Completed
Arlington 885 637/374 664
Boston 259 292/160 221
Chicago 611 690/507 750
Houston 752 397/253 440
Los Angeles 867 2,145/1,113 1,230
Miami 2,046 1,494/929 1,298
Newark 692 1,635/911 1,179
New York 946 1,494/815 1,180
New Orleans 204 374/117 201
San Francisco 605 1,147/646 730
TOTAL 7,867 10,307/5,825 7,893

 

There are other mysteries contained in these numbers. Why are so many interviews scheduled, but so few actually conducted (less than 57% of scheduled interviews were conducted in June 2018)? Some interviews are cancelled by the Asylum Offices; others (more) are cancelled by the applicants. You would think that under LIFO, most applicants would file a complete case and be prepared for an interview when it comes, but maybe not (and if you’re wondering, the reschedule rate was about the same under FIFO).

Another anomaly–though not quite a mystery–appears in the numbers for the Miami Asylum Office, which is receiving far more new cases than any other office. The reason? It may be because Venezuela has surpassed all other countries as a source nation for asylum seekers, and I suspect that these applicants largely land in Miami. Indeed, if you look at the top sending countries for asylum seekers, you will see that for the last three months (at least), Venezuelans make up more than 25% of all affirmative asylum seekers in the United States.

One final point for today. I posted previously about the declining grant rate for affirmative asylum cases. At that time (February 2018), the overall approval rate for FY 2018 cases was 26%. The most recent numbers paint a similar picture. The overall approval rate for April 2018 is 23.5%. The rate for May is 26.3%, and for June is 25.0%. However, if we remove from the mix cases where the applicant did not show up for the interview, where the applicant declined an interview (and went directly to court to seek other relief), and where the application was denied due to the one-year bar, the situation is better: The approval rate under those circumstances for April 2018 is 41.4%. May is 44.5%, and June is 43.0%. So this means, generally speaking, if you file for asylum on time, and you show up to your interview, you have a decent chance of winning your case. Let’s call that good news, and end there for today. Au revoir!

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An Update on LIFO and the Asylum Backlog (or, The Fix that Wasn’t)

by Jason Dzubow

On January 29, 2018, the Asylum Division changed the way it prioritizes cases. Since 2015, asylum applicants were being interviewed in the order that their cases were filed. Oldest cases first, followed by newer cases (“first in, first out” or FIFO). During this period, the number of people waiting for an interview—the backlog—grew and grew.

Now, under the new system, cases are interviewed on a “last in, first out” basis or LIFO. This is basically the same system we had prior to 2015. The backlog began under the pre-2015 LIFO because the Asylum Offices did not have the people-power to interview everyone who applied for asylum. The result: Some cases were interviewed, while others “disappeared” into the backlog. Because this was unfair to “disappeared” applicants, the Asylum Division eventually switched to FIFO, which had the virtue of being more fair, but did nothing to ameliorate the backlog.

Most experts believe the backlog will be resolved by the late 25th century. Biddi biddi biddi.

Under the Trump Administration, what’s old is new again, and so we are back to LIFO. How is LIFO working out? Some new data from USCIS gives us an idea. The short answer, if you don’t have time to read this whole post, is that the backlog is not about to be resolved any time soon. So if you are currently stuck waiting for an asylum interview, you might want to get comfortable, as you’ll probably be waiting for a while (or you can try to expedite your case). If you have time to keep reading, let’s look at where we are, and how you can best navigate through LIFO-land.

First, as of March 31, 2018, there were 318,624 asylum applications pending in the backlog. That’s “applications” not “applicants.” Since some applications include multiple family members, the number of people stuck in the affirmative asylum backlog is probably quite a bit higher than 318,624.

In response to the backlog, the Asylum Division has taken several actions. For years now, they’ve been staffing up. According to a recent report from the USCIS Ombudsman, since FY 2016, the number of Asylum Officers has increased from 533 to 686 (and they continue to hire – if you want to sign up, check out this job posting). Since we’ve dramatically reduced the number of refugees coming to the U.S., Refugee Officers have more free time, and so they are being rotated through the Asylum Offices on 12-week stints. We are also expecting a new National Vetting Center (in 2019 or 2020) that will deal with security checks and fraud issues, in order to free up more time for Asylum Officers to do their work. All these changes should allow the Asylum Offices to process more cases.

We also now have LIFO. Under this system, the Asylum Offices prioritize cases as follows: First priority are rescheduled interviews, whether the interview was rescheduled by the Asylum Office or the applicant. Second priority are asylum applications that have been pending less than 21 days. This does not mean you will receive an interview within 21 days of filing. Rather, cases less than 21 days old will receive priority to be scheduled for an interview. Third priority are all other affirmative cases, including the 318,624 currently in the backlog.

According to the Ombudsman’s report, not all new cases will receive priority for an interview:

Cases subject to interviews at “circuit ride” locations (generally a USCIS field office situated closer than the asylum office to an applicant’s residence) will not fall under the 21-day time frame. Rather, the Asylum Division will schedule these cases for interviews as resources permits.

This means that if you want a quick interview, you have to live in a location that is covered by one of the main offices or a sub-office (Arlington, Boston, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, Newark, New York, New Orleans or San Francisco), as opposed to a “circuit ride” location, which is a USCIS field office that is visited periodically by Asylum Officers (there are many, but some examples are Atlanta, Buffalo, and Seattle). I do not know of an on-line listing of areas covered by circuit ride locations, but I suppose you can email your Asylum Office to ask. If you live in a circuit-ride area, you can ask to be interviewed in a main office–sometimes they accommodate such requests.

Assuming you file at one of the main or sub-offices, the likelihood of actually receiving an interview (as opposed to disappearing into the backlog) varies by office. The chart below is based on very preliminary data from the Asylum Division. It shows the (very approximate) likelihood of having your case interviewed in each office.

In the chart, “New Cases Filed” is the number of asylum cases filed in that particular office for March 2018. “Interviews” is the number of interviews actually conducted in March 2018 (as opposed to the number of interviews scheduled and then canceled, which is quite a bit higher). The percentage figure is the rough likelihood that an applicant in that particular office would have received an interview in March 2018. And the “Completed” column shows how many cases were completed during the month, which—when compared to the number of cases filed—gives an idea of how much the backlog grew or shrunk in that office for March 2018 (the +/- in the Completed column).

 

Office New Cases Filed Interviews Completed
Arlington 920 494 / 54% 408 / +512
Boston 289 132 / 46% 178 / +111
Chicago 550 675 / 100% 550 / +0
Houston 751 583 / 78% 504 / +247
Los Angeles 997 708 / 71% 1,243 / -246
Miami 2,219 798 / 36% 920 / +1,299
Newark 668 792 / 100% 865 / -197
New York 802 690 / 86% 883 / -81
New Orleans 206 166 / 81% 280 / -74
San Francisco 653 529 / 81% 687 / -34

 

There are some caveats to this chart. First, I compare new cases filed with cases interviewed to determine the likelihood that you will receive an interview in that particular office. This is an apples/oranges comparison since we don’t know how many of the interviews were newly filed cases, as opposed to rescheduled interviews or expedites. Worse, the cases interviewed were probably filed in January or February, since it takes some time to actually schedule the interview. This makes the comparison even less reliable. Second, this data is for only one month, and March was probably not a “normal” month, in that the system was still adjusting to the change from FIFO to LIFO. So how useful this chart is for predicting the likelihood of an interview going forward, I do not know. Finally, this chart was prepared by me. Using math. Since I’m no Ramanujan, you should take all this with a big grain of salt.

That said, this is the best data we have, and maybe we can draw some tentative conclusions. For one, the backlog is generally growing, not shrinking. However, this varies by office. If your case is stuck in an office where the backlog is growing, it is unlikely that you will get an interview any time soon. If you are in an office where the backlog is shrinking, maybe you will eventually receive an interview. Also, if you are a new applicant and you want an interview quickly, you may be better off filing in Chicago or Newark, since they seem to be interviewing pending cases faster than they are receiving new cases (conversely, if you want a slower interview schedule, you are better off living in an area covered by a circuit ride location or an office where the backlog is growing). Again, all this is quite preliminary, and we will have to see how things progress when they release the next batch of data in a few months.

Another bit of information we can glean from the Ombudsman report is that local asylum offices “report a 25 percent drop in affirmative receipts in the immediate aftermath of the change to LIFO scheduling.” The implication/hope is that the new LIFO system is deterring people from filing frivolous asylum claims. I think there is another, more likely explanation, however. In my office, for example, when the Asylum Division switched from FIFO to LIFO, we stopped filing cases for a few months in order to adjust how we filed (under FIFO, we filed a bare-bones application, consisting of the I-589 form and the passport; under LIFO, we file a complete case, which takes much longer to prepare). My guess is that once people adjust to LIFO, there will be little change in the number of cases being filed (of course, since fewer aliens are coming to the U.S. these days, we can expect fewer asylum applications for that reason).

One final piece of news is a pilot program to refer one-year bar cases directly to the Immigration Court without an interview. The Asylum Division has identified up to 50,000 pending cases where the applicant entered the U.S. more than 10 years before filing for asylum. Such people may have filed for asylum in order to be referred to Court, where they will seek other relief (most notably, Cancellation of Removal). So far, the Asylum Division has contacted about 1,500 such people, and given them the option to skip the interview and go directly to Court. Depending on the case, and the person’s goals, this may be an attractive option for some, though I suspect anyone with a real fear of returning to the home country will prefer to have an asylum interview.

So there you have it. It is probably too soon to draw any firm conclusions from the data at hand, but based on what we know so far, it seems likely that the backlog will be with us for the long term. Keeping informed about the Asylum Office’s statistics and policies may allow some applicants to increase their chance for an interview. As more data becomes available, I will try to post that information here.

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The Last-In, First-Out Policy Ain’t Exactly Last-In, First-Out

by Jason Dzubow

It’s been a month since the Asylum Division surprised us by changing from a first-in, first-out (FI-FO) system to a last-in, first-out (LI-FO) system. Under the new system, cases were supposed to be interviewed in the following order of priority: (1) Applications that were scheduled for an interview, but the interview had to be rescheduled at the applicant’s request or the needs of USCIS; (2) Applications that have been pending 21 days or less; and (3) All other pending affirmative asylum applications will be scheduled for interviews starting with newer filings and working back towards older filings. So in other words, the Asylum Offices would interview newly filed cases first; then, if they had extra time, they would interview recently filed cases, working their way backwards through the backlog.

How’s the new LI-FO system working out for you?

We’re now a month in, and the new system is not working exactly as advertised. In our office, for example, we had one client whose case was filed in mid-January 2018. The case was scheduled for an interview earlier this week (we postponed it, as we needed more time to gather evidence). This is about what we expected under the LI-FO system. Another client, whose case was filed in August 2014 was scheduled for an interview in mid-March. The Asylum Office mailed out the interview notice in mid-February, at a time when LI-FO should have been in place. This is not what we were expecting. So what the heck is happening?

It turns out that different Asylum Offices are implementing the LI-FO system in different ways. In a conference call with AILA (the American Immigration Lawyers Association), the Asylum Division informed us that if they do not have enough new cases to fill their schedule, Asylum Offices will interview cases from the backlog. The different offices apparently have the authority to decide which backlogged cases they will choose to interview–old cases, new cases or (I guess) whatever cases they feel like interviewing.

In my local office–Arlington, Virginia–it seems they are interviewing old backlog cases–from 2014. This is contrary to the interview priorities published on January 31, 2018, where the Asylum Division indicated they would work their way backwards through the backlog. It sounds like other Asylum Offices will interview newer backlogged cases–from January 2018 or December 2017, in conformity with the published priorities.

On one level, my preference is that the Asylum Offices interview older cases first, as that seems more fair. But frankly, at this point, my main concern is that they just make a decision and stick with it. It’s bad enough that the Asylum Division announced a surprise change and basically upended the expectations of asylum seekers (and their lawyers). But now, it seems they can’t even follow their own policy.

For advocates, including yours truly, this makes it very difficult to know how to prioritize cases and advise clients. Worse, so much uncertainty makes it even more difficult for asylum seekers to endure the long waits.

Of course, all things pass, and my guess is that we are currently in a period of transition. After the recent change to LI-FO, many attorneys and applicants stopped filing cases. Prior to the change, we were filing bare-bones asylum applications with the intention of finishing the cases later, as the interview date approached. But now, given the (supposed) short time between filing the case and receiving the interview, we have to file completed cases. It takes more time to prepare complete cases, and so we are adjusting how we do things. As a result, fewer cases are being filed and the Asylum Offices have a brief pause to work on backlogged cases.

However, once everyone re-calibrates, I expect the volume of new asylum applications will return to normal, and the Asylum Offices will probably be interviewing new cases, and maybe–if we’re lucky–some cases from the backlog.

Once things settle down, it would be nice to know how the different Asylum Offices plan to interview backlog cases going forward. That way, asylum seekers will have some idea what to expect, and attorneys can advise their clients and manage their caseload. In this sense, the now-defunct Asylum Office Scheduling Bulletin was quite helpful. At least we had some idea about what was going on.

My hope is that the Asylum Offices will choose to provide us with some information about how they are operating. This shouldn’t be all that difficult since each office has its own website. Indeed, whether they are moving through their backlog from oldest to newest or from newest to oldest, I don’t see why they can’t simply tell us where they are.

And while I’m wishing, maybe they can also give other useful information on their website, like the deadlines for filing evidence and the procedures for rescheduling, expediting, and short-listing. Repeat customers like me already know the rules, but pro se applicants don’t, and there is currently no easy way for them to find out. Why not simply post this information on the Asylum Office website for everyone to see?

I know that all this is probably asking for too much. I also know that the Asylum Offices are in a tough spot these days. The Trump Administration is clearly hostile to their mission of protecting bona fide refugees, and anything they do to make the process more user-friendly might come back to bite them. Also, they are potentially on the cusp of a massive surge in new cases, if nothing is done for DACA or TPS recipients. Nevertheless, it would be nice if they could follow the policy that they announced less than a month ago. Or, if they don’t plan to follow the policy, at least keep everyone informed about what they are doing.

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The Asylum Office Is Getting Tougher (Probably)

by Jason Dzubow

Last week, the Asylum Division changed the way it processes cases. Instead of interviewing asylum cases in the order they were filed (first-in, first-out), cases will now be interviewed on a last-in, first-out or LI-FO basis. We’ve been learning more about the reasons for this change, and I want to share what I’ve heard here. But before I get to that, I want to discuss another important change that has recently become apparent: The dramatic drop in grant rates for cases at most asylum offices.

The new Asylum Officer training regimen.

The below chart compares asylum approval rates at the various asylum offices for the months of December 2016 and December 2017 (the most recent month when data is available). Admittedly, this is a snapshot of events, and an imperfect snapshot at that. Nevertheless, I think it illustrates a larger trend.

The left number in each column represents the number of cases approved during the month. The number on the right is the number of cases completed. The percentage shows the percentage of cases approved in that office. So in December 2016, Arlington approved 89 cases out of 317 completed, meaning that 28% of completed cases were approved. Conversely, 72% of applicants were denied asylum or referred to court, but that includes people who failed to show up for their interview, so the denial rate for people who actually appear is not as bad as it seems from the chart (as they say, in life, eighty percent of success is showing up). With that out of the way, here are the stats:

Asylum Office December 2016 December 2017
Arlington 89/317 (28%) 80/276 (29%)
Boston 45/108 (42%) 27/168 (16%)
Chicago 75/186 (40%) 80/362 (22%)
Houston 28/119 (24%) 58/437 (13%)
Los Angeles 258/528 (49%) 389/1195 (33%)
Miami 73/243 (30%) 76/650 (12%)
Newark 118/358 (33%) 155/866 (18%)
New York 103/496 (21%) 87/858 (10%)
New Orleans 41/83 (49%) 83/188 (44%)
San Francisco 219/303 (72%) 196/429 (46%)
United States 1049/2741 (38.3%) 1231/5429 (22.7%)

 

So you can see that asylum grant rates are pretty dramatically down at most offices, and that for the entire country, they are down about 40% (from 38.3% to 22.7%) (you can see the source for these statistics here for 2016 and here for 2017). While the various grant rates could represent anomalies, they comport with larger trends, as shown in the next chart, which lists grant rates for the U.S. as a whole over the last few years:

Fiscal Year Asylum Grant Rate
FY 2015   45%
FY 2016   41%
FY 2017   34%
FY 2018   26%

 

You can see from this chart that asylum grant rates have been dropping since FY 2015 (which began on October 1, 2014), but the decrease is more pronounced in the two most recent fiscal years (and of course, we are only a few months into FY 2018). Further, if the December 2017 data is any indicator, the grant rate is continuing to drop.

My first question–and be forewarned, I don’t really intend to answer these questions–is, Why is this happening? The temptation is to attribute the drop to President Trump’s anti-immigrant agenda, but I don’t find that explanation very convincing. First, grant rates began to fall long before Mr. Trump took office. Second, even after he was sworn in–in the second quarter of FY 2017–it takes months to implement new policies. Most asylum officers were hired pre-Trump, and that was especially true in FY 2017, since it takes time to hire and train new people. In addition, I have not observed any real changes in the pool of asylum officers that I meet (then again, the grant rate at my local office–Arlington–seems to have held steady, at least as illustrated in the first chart).

So if it’s not President Trump, what’s going on? One possibility–and I suspect this is the explanation that the Asylum Division favors–is that a higher portion of cases interviewed in recent years are meritless. In other words, as the backlog grew and delays became longer, people with weak cases were incentivized to file for asylum in order to get their employment authorization document (“EAD”). These people knew that their cases would take years, and so they filed mostly to obtain some status here and work legally. But now, as more and more of these people are reaching the interview stage, their cases are being denied. There is some evidence for this theory–according to the Asylum Division, of the 314,000 backlogged asylum cases, 50,000+ applications were filed more than 10 years after the applicant entered the United States. For various reasons, such cases are more likely to be meritless, and–even if they are legitimate–they are more likely to be denied due to the one year asylum filing deadline.

If this second explanation is correct, then perhaps there will be a silver lining to the recent change in how asylum cases are interviewed. If people get faster interviews, maybe fewer meritless applicants will seek asylum.

Whether or not this will work, we shall see. But a test is soon coming (probably). The Trump Administration has ended TPS (Temporary Protected Status) for El Salvador and other countries. It has also terminated the DACA program. This means that in the absence of a legislative fix, hundreds of thousands of people will have no way to avoid deportation other than to go into hiding or to seek asylum. You can bet that many of them will seek asylum (and indeed, given the violent countries from whence they came, many have legitimate reasons to fear return).

We know from a recent meeting at the Arlington Asylum Office that the end of TPS and DACA were two reasons for changing to the FI-LO process. But whether this new procedure will stem the potential tidal wave of applications, I have my doubts.

All this brings us to the final question (for today)–What does this mean for asylum seekers? As usual, I don’t have a good answer. People filing now can probably expect an interview soon and should submit all evidence so they are ready for the interview. However, if volume is too high, not everyone will get an interview. My impression is that if the interview is not scheduled within 21 days of receiving the receipt, then the case will “disappear” and will only be interviewed once the Asylum Office starts working on backlogged cases. It’s likely that some cases will disappear, since the number of people seeking asylum is still out-pacing the government’s ability to interview applicants. Also, there are (once again) increasing numbers of asylum seekers arriving at the U.S./Mexico border, and the Asylum Offices must devote resources to those cases as well.

Local offices control the expedite process and the short list, and it seems that most offices will continue to offer those options. However, the Asylum Division is expecting fewer “no shows” with the new system, and so there may be less slots available for expedited or short-listed cases.

Finally, under the pre-December 2014 system, when an asylum case was sent to Immigration Court, the judge would schedule a quick hearing date for any applicant who had not yet received his EAD (in an effort to dissuade meritless applicants from seeking asylum merely to get an EAD). It looks like the Immigration Courts will again be doing this same thing, and so if you have a fast asylum interview and you are referred to court, you should be prepared for a fast hearing date in court.

For what it’s worth, my impression is that the Asylum Division is well aware of the pain it will inflict by re-ordering how asylum cases are interviewed. But they are looking at the “big picture” and they hope that changing to a FI-LO system will reduce meritless applications and ultimately benefit legitimate asylum seekers. I hope they are correct, but until then, I fear things will be worse before they get better.

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Bye Bye Scheduling Bulletin, Hello Chaos!

by Jason Dzubow

By now, you may have heard that the Asylum Division–in a surprise move–has changed the order in which cases will be interviewed. This means that new cases, filed after January 29, 2018, will be interviewed before older, pending cases.

“Sorry, the front of the line is now over there… I guess…”

To understand what’s happening, let’s review a bit of history. Since the mid-1990s, when an asylum case was submitted, the Asylum Office attempted to interview the applicant within a couple months. But as the number of applicants increased, the Asylum Office was less able to handle the volume. Further, starting in maybe 2011 or 2012, large number of asylum seekers began arriving at the U.S./Mexico border and requesting protection (many of these applicants were “unaccompanied minors” – i.e., children without parents – whose cases received priority). In addition to their normal workload, Asylum Officers were assigned to assess these border cases and administer a credible fear interview (an initial evaluation of asylum eligibility). All this resulted in an inability to keep up with affirmative asylum applications. The result was The Backlog.

In my part of the country, the backlog began in probably 2012. We would mail asylum cases as normal. Some applicants would be interviewed within two months; other cases disappeared. Of the cases we mailed, about 60% were interviewed and 40% disappeared.

Although the Asylum Division recognized the problem, they were reluctant to change the way they processed cases. Their fear was that if they interviewed cases in the order received, all cases would move slowly. This would create an incentive for more people to submit fraudulent applications, knowing that their interview would be delayed and that they could remain in the United States for years with a work permit (150 days after she files for asylum, an applicant can apply for an employment authorization document). The problem, of course, was that cases in the backlog (the ones that “disappeared”) would never be adjudicated, and would remain in limbo forever.

Then, in December 2014, the Asylum Division decided to try a new approach: They would interview the oldest cases first. In a sense, this was more fair, as it gave people with “disappeared” cases a chance for an interview. At about the same time, the Asylum Division created the Affirmative Asylum Scheduling Bulletin. Now, for each asylum office, we could see who was being interviewed based on the date the application was filed. This at least gave applicants some sense of how their cases were progressing.

Whether the new system worked, or whether it encouraged fraudulent applicants who only wanted work permits, I do not know. I do know that cases have been moving very slowly since December 2014. I believe this is largely due to the prioritization of cases–unaccompanied minors and credible fear interviews received priority over “regular” asylum applicants, and since there were a lot of these, the Asylum Office has been crawling through its backlog of regular cases. We could see what was happening (or not happening) on the Affirmative Asylum Scheduling Bulletin.

Enter, the Trump Administration, which views asylum seekers as fraudsters. USCIS (which oversees the Asylum Division) announced the change in policy yesterday, and the change is retroactive–all cases filed on or after January 29, 2018 will (supposedly) be interviewed within 21 days. There is, of course, a caveat: “Workload priorities related to border enforcement may affect our ability to schedule all new applications for an interview within 21 days,” says USCIS.

According to USCIS, the new priorities are as follows:

  • First priority: Applications that were scheduled for an interview, but the interview had to be rescheduled at the applicant’s request or the needs of USCIS.
  • Second priority: Applications that have been pending 21 days or less.
  • Third priority: All other pending affirmative asylum applications will be scheduled for interviews starting with newer filings and working back towards older filings

From this, it appears that unaccompanied minors will no longer be a priority, which may make things faster for “regular” applicants. Also, it appears that the system for requesting expedited interviews will remain in place: “Asylum office directors may consider, on a case-by-case basis, an urgent request to be scheduled for an interview outside of the priority order listed above” (I previously wrote about expediting affirmative asylum cases here). Finally, since cases are being interviewed on a “last in, first out” basis, there is no longer a need for the Asylum Office Scheduling Bulletin, and so USCIS has eliminated it (though wouldn’t it be nice if they used that website to provided updated information about what they are doing?).

USCIS has made the reasons for the change pretty clear: “Returning to a ‘last in, first out’ interview schedule will allow USCIS to identify frivolous, fraudulent or otherwise non-meritorious asylum claims earlier and place those individuals into removal proceedings.” Presumably, it will also allow legitimate cases to be granted more quickly, which may be good news for people planning to file for asylum in the near future.

Rumor has it that other changes are coming to the asylum system, but what they are, we do not yet know. Given the government’s view that many asylum seekers are fraudsters, I can’t imagine that such changes–if any–will be positive, but we shall see.

There is a lot to say about this new change, but for now, I want to urge people to remain cautious. We will have to see how this plays out in the coming weeks and months. Obviously, if you are a new asylum seeker, or if you filed recently, you need to complete your entire case now, so that you are ready if an interview is scheduled quickly. If you have a case in the backlog, and are now losing hope of ever receiving an interview, you should try to be patient–it may be that because unaccompanied minors are no longer a priority, and because fewer asylum seekers are arriving at the Southern border, cases will begin moving more quickly. Only time will tell, and if I have any news, I will try to post it here.

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How to Expedite an Asylum Interview–or–Ask and Ye Might Just Receive

by Jason Dzubow

These days, the estimated wait time for an affirmative asylum case is somewhere between eternity and forever. It can best be expressed numerically as ∞. Or maybe as ∞ + 1. In other words, affirmative asylum cases take a long damn time. (OK, to be fair, you can get some idea about the actual wait time here).

Asylum seekcars waiting for their interview.

For some people, this wait is more of a problem than for others. For example, if your spouse and children are outside the United States waiting for you, and especially if they are living in unsafe or unhealthy conditions, the wait can be intolerable. A growing number of people are abandoning their cases simply because they cannot stand the separation. Others are moving to Canada, which apparently has a faster system than we have in the States. The problem is not simply that the wait is long—and the wait is long. The problem is that we cannot know how long the wait will be. Maybe the interview will come in six months; maybe in three years. Maybe the decision will come shortly after the interview; maybe it will take months or years. This unpredictability contributes to the difficulty of waiting for a resolution to the case.

For others people—single people without children or families that are all together here in the U.S.—the wait may be stressful, but it’s far more bearable. For my clients in this position, I advise them to live as if they will win their cases. What else can they do? To live under the constant stress of potential deportation is unhealthy. And the fact is, most of my clients have strong cases, and the likelihood that they will succeed it pretty high. So it is best to live as normally as possible. Find a job, start a business, buy a house or a car, go to school, make friends, get on with life. In the end, if such people need to leave the United States, they will have time to wind down their affairs and sell their belongings. For now, though, if I may quote the late, great Chuck Berry, Live like you wanna live, baby.

But what if you want to try to expedite your case? How can you maximize the chances that the Asylum Office will move your case to the front of the line?

First, before you file to expedite, you need to complete your case. The affidavit must be finished and all the evidence must be organized and properly translated (if necessary). If you expedite a case and the case is not complete, it could result in real problems. For example, I once had a client put himself on a short list without telling me. Then one day, an Asylum Officer called me and said that they wanted to schedule his interview for the following week. The problem was, the evidence was not submitted (or even gathered) and the affidavit was not done. The client insisted on going forward, and so (while I helped with interview preparation), I withdrew from the case. I did not want to remain affiliated with a case that was not properly put together, and I did not want to represent a person who took action on his case without informing me. In general, there is no value in expediting a case only to lose because you are not prepared for the interview, so make sure your case is complete before you try to expedite.

Second, you need a good reason to expedite. Remember, you are asking to jump your case ahead of hundreds–maybe thousands–of people who are also waiting for their asylum interview. Why should the Asylum Office allow you to do that? One common reason is that the applicant has a health problem (physical or mental). If that is your reason, get a letter from the doctor. Also, provide some explanation for how an early resolution of the asylum case might help improve your health situation (for example, maybe you have a health problem that is exacerbated by the stress of a pending case).

Another common reason to expedite (and in my opinion, the most legitimate reason to expedite) is separation from family members, especially if those family members are living under difficult or dangerous circumstances. If an asylum applicant wins her case, she can file petitions to bring her spouse and her minor, unmarried children to the United States. Many people come to the U.S. to seek asylum not for themselves, but because they fear for the safety of their family. Since it is so difficult to get a U.S. visa, it’s common to see asylum seekers who leave their family members behind, in the hope that they can win asylum and bring their family members later. So when the wait for an interview (never mind a decision) is measured in years, that’s a real hardship. For our asylum-seeker clients with pending applications, we have seen cases where their children were attacked in the home country, where family members went into hiding, where children could not attend school or get medical treatment, where families were stuck in third countries, etc., etc., etc. Such problems can form the basis for an expedite request.

To expedite for such a reason, get evidence of the problem. That evidence could be a doctor’s note for a medical problem or an injury, or a police report if a family member was attacked or threatened. It could be a letter from a teacher that the child cannot attend school. It could be letters from the family members themselves explaining the hardship, or letters from other people who know about the problems (for advice on writing a good letter, see this article). Also, sometimes family members receive threat letters or their property is vandalized. Submit copies of such letters or photos of property damage. It is very important to submit letters and evidence in support of the expedite request. Also, remember to include evidence of the family relationship–marriage certificate or birth certificates of children–to show how the person is related to the principal asylum applicant.

There are other reasons to request an expedited interview: Until an asylum case is granted, applicants may not be able to get certain jobs, they cannot qualify for in-state tuition, they face the general stress of not knowing whether they can stay. While these issues can be quite difficult to deal with, I think that they do not compare to the hardships suffered by people separated from family members. Indeed, if I were in charge of the Asylum Division, I would allow expedited interviews only in cases of family separation.

Once your case is complete and you have gathered evidence in support of the expedite request, you need to submit the request and evidence to the Asylum Office. Different offices have different procedures for expediting. You can contact your Asylum Office to ask about the procedure. Contact information for the various Asylum Offices can be found here.

One last point about expediting asylum cases: The system for expediting cases is not well-developed, meaning that sometimes, a strong request will be denied or a weak request will be granted. There definitely seems to be an element of luck involved in the expedite request process. But of course, unless you try to expedite, you can’t get your case expedited. If an initial request is denied, you can gather more evidence and try again (and again). At least in my experience, most–but not all–cases where there was a good reason to expedite were, in fact, expedited.

Besides expediting asylum cases, it is also possible to put your case on the “short list,” which may result in an earlier interview date. You can learn more about that and a few other ideas here.

It is still unclear how changes in the new Administration might affect the speed of asylum cases, but I doubt that the asylum backlog is going away any time soon. In that case, for many people, the only options are to learn to live with the delay or–if there is a good reason–to ask for an expedited interview and then to hope for the best.

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The Asylum Office Scheduling Bulletin, Explained (Sort of)

by Jason Dzubow

The purpose of the Asylum Office Scheduling Bulletin (“AOSB”) is to give asylum applicants “an estimate for when they might expect their interview to be scheduled.” At best, though, it’s a very rough estimate. The problem is that the AOSB tells only part of the story, and not even the most important part. Let me explain.

For two bits, Madame Blavatsky can predict when your interview will be. And I'll bet she's more accurate than the AOSB.
For two bits, Madame Blavatsky can predict when your interview will be. And I’ll bet she’s more accurate than the AOSB.

First, what is the AOSB? It is a chart that lists the eight main Asylum Offices. For each office, we can see the filing date of the cases that that office was interviewing in March 2016 (the most recent month listed on the chart). We can also see the two previous months (January and February 2016), which gives some idea about how quickly (or not) the office is moving through its case load.

So, for example, if you look at the Arlington, Virginia Asylum Office, you will see that as of March 2016, it is interviewing people who filed their cases in October 2013. In January and February 2016, Arlington was interviewing people who filed their cases in September 2013. The Chicago office has made the most progress during this period, advancing from May to August 2013. San Francisco is also making steady progress, moving from January to March 2014. Other offices–Houston, Los Angeles, Miami–have moved not at all. But again, this is only part of the story.

One thing the numbers do not tell you is that many of the cases filed prior to December 26, 2014 have already been interviewed. Extrapolating from our own case load, for example, I estimate that in my local Asylum Office (Arlington), approximately 60% of cases filed between October 2013 (the date listed on the AOSB) and December 2014 have already been interviewed. That’s because there was a policy change on December 26, 2014 affecting how the Asylum Offices handle their cases.

What happened is this: In the Good Old Days (and the dates for “the Good Old Days” differ depending on your Asylum Office), asylum cases were filed and interviewed relatively quickly. At my local office, most interviews took place two or three months after filing. Then, starting in 2012 or 2013, and continuing until today, the number of people arriving at our Southern border increased significantly. These migrants are mostly young people from El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala. They are fleeing violence and poverty. Some are attempting to reunite with family members already in the United States.

At the border, the migrants ask for asylum. They are generally detained and subject to a credible fear interview (“CFI”). A CFI is an initial evaluation of eligibility for asylum. It is easier to “pass” a CFI than to win asylum, and a large majority of applicants pass the interview. They are then permitted to present their asylum cases to an Immigration Judge or an Asylum Officer. Applicants who do not pass the CFI are deported.

This mass migration (often called “the surge”) affects the affirmative asylum process in a few ways. First, CFIs are conducted by Asylum Officers. These are the same officers who conduct asylum interviews at the various Asylum Offices. If the officers are spending time on CFIs, they obviously are not spending time interviewing applicants at the Asylum Offices. And since most of the people arriving at the Southern border are detained, which costs the U.S. government money, CFIs get priority over the Asylum Officers’ other work. Another way the surge has affected asylum seekers is that the Asylum Offices are prioritizing unaccompanied minors over other applicants. A large percentage of “surge” asylum applicants are minors, and thus their interviews receive priority over “regular” asylum seekers.

When DHS diverted resources away from the Asylum Offices, affirmative cases started piling up. This began in our local office in 2013. About 60% of the case we filed during this period were interviewed in the normal time frame; the other 40% disappeared. The disappeared cases came to be known as “the backlog.”

Once it became apparent that the backlog was not going away, the Asylum Division changed its policy. Starting on December 26, 2014, cases would be interviewed on a first-in/first-out basis. This meant that the Asylum Offices started interviewing the cases in the order received, starting with the cases that had disappeared into the backlog. The AOSB was first published in about July 2015, and since then, there has not been a whole lot of progress. In Arlington, for example, since July 2015, the Asylum Office has only advanced from August to October 2013. Los Angeles is worse. Back in July 2015, they were interviewing cases filed in August 2011. Today, they are still interviewing cases filed in August 2011. Ugh.

The U.S. government has been trying to improve the situation. The Asylum Division has hired more staff, including officers devoted exclusively to CFIs. We now have a system–limited to be sure–to process refugees in-country in Central America and bring them to the U.S. More controversially, we seem to have convinced Mexico to crack down on migrants passing through its territory, and we have prioritized the deportation of “surge” applicants, sometimes at the expense of our international obligations and due process of law. But if the AOSB provides any indication, these efforts have done little to reduce the backlog.

The most important factor impacting movement at the Asylum Offices still appears to be the number of people arriving at the Southern border. As long as these numbers remain high, I am not optimistic that the Asylum Offices will make much progress on the backlog. And the prospects for improvement in the near-term do not look good: Preliminary reports from the border indicate that we can expect more asylum seekers than ever, as migrants seek to enter the U.S. before our increasingly-hostile political climate makes conditions for asylum seekers at the border even more dire.

All these factors, and more (like, how cases and CFIs are distributed between Asylum Offices, how many Asylum Officers are detailed overseas to process refugees, etc.), contribute to movement on the AOSB. Because there are so many unpredictable factors at play, I don’t see how the AOSB can claim any accuracy as a long-term predictor of when an individual asylum interview will be held. To me, it’s kind of like looking at the weather report a month before your vacation. It doesn’t tell you much, but since it’s all you’ve got, you pay attention anyway.

In the end, there is some value to the AOSB: Once you see that your asylum filing date is coming up, you know to prepare for your interview. Also, for applicants, I suppose it is helpful to know that they are not alone in Backlogistan. But as far as predicting interview dates, the AOSB is a mirage in the desert–it may encourage you to keep walking, but it tells you nothing about when you might get your next drink of water.

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Some (Unsolicited) Advice for the Asylum Office

by Jason Dzubow

When the backlog began in 2013, no one quite knew what was happening. How long would the problem persist? How would the delays affect asylum seekers? How would the delays affect the integrity of the asylum system?

It's that time of year, when annoying relatives and (marginally less) annoying lawyers, give you advice.
It’s that time of year, when annoying relatives and (marginally less) annoying lawyers, give you advice.

Two-and-a-half years later, we have some sense for what is happening, and the Asylum Division has made some adaptations to the new reality. It probably comes as no surprise that asylum seekers–and their representatives–are not satisfied with the current situation. Hence, I offer here my own ideas for improving the system. The only criteria for the below suggestions is that they do not cost anything (or at least, not much). It would be easy to propose expensive solutions (hire lots more asylum officers!) but in the current climate, I don’t think that is realistic. Anyway, without further ado, here are my humble suggestions to save the world:

Don’t Create Unrealistic Expectations: Most Asylum Officers are nice, and nice people do not like to make other people feel bad. And so what we frequently see is Asylum Officers giving a time frame for the decision. More often than not, this time frame under-estimates the wait time; sometimes, by a lot. As a result, asylum applicants have their expectations raised and then dashed. It would be far better to avoid this altogether. Unless they really know for certain, Asylum Officers should refrain from giving a time frame for the decision. If the decision comes quickly, the applicant will be (hopefully) pleasantly surprised; if it comes slowly, at least there will not have been an expectation of a quick decision.

Distribute Workloads More Evenly: Waiting times between Asylum Offices vary widely. Houston is currently interviewing people who filed their cases in May 2014; Los Angeles is interviewing people who filed their cases in August 2011. On it’s face, it appears that people in LA wait about three years longer than people in Houston. It should be possible to assign cases in a way that reduces this disparity. Much of the delay is due to credible fear interviews, which take place remotely (by video conference or phone). Why can’t these be processed in the faster offices, so that the slower offices can focus on their backlogs? In this way, perhaps wait times could be made more equitable.

Prioritize People Separated from Family Members: It is much easier to tolerate a long delay if you are not separated from your spouse and minor children. The asylum form, I-589, requests information about the applicant’s spouse and children. In cases where the spouse and minor children are outside the U.S., the Asylum Offices should prioritize those cases. It is really intolerable to remain separated from small children for 2, 3, and 4 years, or more. By the time you see your child again, she won’t even know you. Not to mention that in many cases, the family members are living in unsafe conditions. This is by far the worst part of the backlog, and the Asylum Division really should address the problem.

Standardize the Process of Expediting Cases, and Make the Process More Transparent: It is possible to expedite an asylum case. One way to do this is through the “short list.” When an applicant adds his name to the short list, he will be called for an interview if a slot opens up. The short list can be faster than the regular queue. However, short lists open and close, and not all offices have short lists. The Asylum Offices should post information about the short lists on their websites. Perhaps the short lists can be limited to people separated from their family members. At the minimum, each Asylum Office could post on their website whether a short list is available, and whether it is open to new applicants.

It is also possible to expedite a case for emergent reasons (health problems, family members overseas in jeopardy, etc.). However, there are no hard and fast rules related to expediting cases. Each Asylum Office should have a set of rules for expediting, and those rules should be posted on their websites: What are the criteria for expediting a case? What evidence is required? How and when will a decision to expedite be made? Currently, we are in the dark about these questions. The result is that applicants are trying again and again to expedite, which wastes Asylum Office time (and attorney time) and which creates unrealistic expectations about whether a case might be expedited.

Make the EAD Valid for Two Years and Have the Receipt Automatically Extend the Old EAD: Employment Authorization Documents–EADs–are currently valid for one year. There are also delays for people applying for and renewing EADs. The result is that many people see their EAD expire before they receive the new card. This causes them to lose their jobs and their driver’s licenses. If EADs were valid for two years (or longer), it would greatly reduce the problem. Also, USCIS should adopt the same policy for EADs as they have for the I-751: The receipt for the EAD should automatically extend the existing EAD until the new card arrives.

Create a FAQ Page: Tens of thousands of asylum applicants are waiting for their interviews or decisions. Waiting is difficult enough, but waiting in the absence of reliable information is even worse. The Asylum Office Scheduling Bulletin was a good start—at least now we know who is being interviewed today. But why don’t the Asylum Office websites have a link to the Scheduling Bulletin? And why don’t the paper asylum receipts include the Asylum Office website addresses? The little information that is actually available should be made more accessible.

In addition, the Asylum Division should create a FAQ page (Frequently Asked Questions). What has caused the delay? Why are there delays after the interview? How do I inquire about the status of my case? How do I request expedited review? What happens if I move? How do I travel outside the United States? These are common questions, and there really are very few places to find reliable answers, especially for those applicants who cannot afford an attorney.

The benefit of providing reliable information to asylum seekers is hard to underestimate. If I might analogize to my own fear of flying. I hate to fly (which is annoying, since I like to be in other places), and it’s especially bad when there’s turbulence. But if the pilot announces,“We’re experiencing some normal turbulence. We should pass through in 10 minutes,” I immediately feel better. The psychological benefit of being informed is a real benefit, and the psychological harm of not knowing, is a real harm. Providing more information to asylum seekers, from a reliable source, would be a big help.

Finally, I will add one “bonus” suggestion, which I’ve made before. USCIS should allow for premium processing of asylum applications. I believe the primary objection to this idea is the appearance of impropriety: It looks bad when an asylum seeker is able to pay money to expedite his case. However, I still believe that the benefits of premium processing outweigh this concern. Those who oppose the asylum system will never be convinced, and there is little point in trying to appease them, especially when the cost of appeasement is further harm to people seeking asylum.

OK, Asylum Division, there you have it. Now, let’s see what you can do.

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Asylum Offices Publish Waiting Times (and the News Is Not Good)

by Jason Dzubow

For some time now, we’ve been hearing from the Asylum Division that they would post a “Scheduling Bulletin” to give affirmative asylum seekers a better idea about wait times. Well, the Bulletin has finally arrived, which is–in a sense–good news. But it’s also bad news, since now we see exactly how slowly things are progressing at most asylum offices.

First off, if you’re curious about the status of your asylum office, check out the Bulletin here. What you’ll see is a breakdown of each asylum office and which cases they are currently interviewing (as of July 2015). So, for example, in July 2015, the Arlington Asylum Office was interviewing cases originally filed in August 2013. The chart also lists which cases each office was interviewing over the past few months, so you can see how quickly (or not) each office is moving through its cases.

Most geologists agree: The asylum offices are moving pretty quickly (except for Los Angeles).
Most geologists agree: The asylum offices are moving pretty quickly (except for Los Angeles).

Reviewing the Bulletin, a few things jump out at me. First, and most distressing, cases are moving very slowly at most asylum offices, and a few offices–notably Chicago, Los Angeles, and Miami–have made no discernible progress in the last four months. One mitigating factor here is that it’s summer, a time when the Southern border is particularly busy. Hopefully, once the number of asylum seekers arriving at the border wanes (as it generally does in autumn), the asylum offices will start interviewing more backlogged cases (if you are not familiar with the “asylum backlog,” please see this posting).

Another point worth noting is that the two asylum offices with jurisdiction over the Southern border states–Los Angeles and Houston–represent the slowest and the fastest offices, respectively. Los Angeles is currently interviewing cases filed in August 2011 (which is slower than I realized–I had thought they were interviewing cases from 2012) and they have been stuck on the August 2011 cases for the last four months. On the other hand, Houston, Texas is the fastest asylum office. They are interviewing cases filed in April 2014, though they have made almost no progress in the last four months either. What’s strange is that there is such disparity along the Southern border. I do not know why resources cannot be distributed more evenly to give some relief to asylum seekers at the LA office.

The only asylum office that has shown significant movement over the last four months is New York. In April 2015, the NY asylum office was interviewing cases filed in January 2013. By July 2015, they were interviewing cases filed in June/July 2013. Newark, New Jersey has also done reasonably well, advancing from December 2012 to April 2013 during the same period.

Rescheduled cases and cases involving children (many of the asylum seekers at the Southern border are children) receive priority over “regular” asylum cases. And according to the Bulletin, the asylum offices in Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and Miami have had many such cases. Presumably this explains the lack of progress in those asylum offices.

Finally, for people with cases pending at one of the sub offices, the Bulletin notes that it “currently does not include asylum interviews occurring outside of the eight asylum offices or the Boston sub-office (e.g. interviews occurring on circuit rides).” “Asylum offices schedule circuit ride interviews as resources permit.” The Bulletin suggests that applicants contact the “asylum office with jurisdiction over your case for more detailed information” about the schedule at sub offices. You can find contact information for each asylum office here.

So there you have it. The Bulletin will be updated monthly so you can track how quickly each asylum office is moving through the backlog. Though the current situation is discouraging, at least the Bulletin provides some information about where we stand now, and maybe some hope for those who are waiting.

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A Statistical Look at the Arlington Asylum Office

by Jason Dzubow

My intrepid associate, Ruth Dickey, has been analyzing data from our cases filed at the Arlington Asylum Office during the past few years. She reports her findings here:

In December 2014, USCIS announced that it would address the asylum backlog in a new way: “First in, first out.” Prior to this new policy, the Asylum Offices were trying to complete as many cases as possible within 60 days. Cases that could not be interviewed within 60 days fell into the backlog. Over time, the number of cases entering the backlog grew and grew. Nationally, as of May 2015, over 85,000 applications are stuck in the backlog.

When we learned about the new “first in, first out” policy, we were hopeful that our oldest cases would be interviewed one after another in quick succession. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen—at least not yet (hope springs eternal, even for asylum lawyers). Let’s take a closer look at what is going on at the Arlington Asylum Office, the office where most of our cases are pending.

During 2013 and 2014, we filed 136 cases that are analyzed here (some cases—where the applicant moved to a different jurisdiction, for example—were excluded from the analysis in order not to skew the data). As you can see from the chart below, a large percentage of our cases fell into the backlog during those years, particularly during the second and third quarters of 2013. The low interview numbers in mid-2013 are likely due to the summer “border surge,” when many Central Americans started arriving at our Southern border and requesting asylum. The surge continued into 2014 and continues up until today. Especially in the beginning, USCIS was not prepared for the surge, and so we suspect the low interview numbers during the second and third quarters of 2013 are due to the government’s inability to deal with the sudden increase in applications.

Chart 1

As you can see in the next chart, a higher percentage of our cases were interviewed in 2014 than in 2013, suggesting that the Asylum Office was handling the volume more effectively. Even so, a significant portion of our cases—almost 40%—fell into the backlog in 2014. Given that the government has already interviewed the majority of cases from the fourth quarter of 2013 and from 2014, we are hopeful that once the Asylum Office reaches those cases, it will move through that portion of the backlog more quickly (the Arlington Asylum Office is currently interviewing cases filed in August 2013—about half way through the third quarter).

chart 2

Since the change to the “first in, first out” policy, things have been moving slowly in Arlington. Only 16 of our backlogged cases have been scheduled for interviews during the first six months of 2015. As a point of comparison, during the same period in 2014, we had exactly twice that many—32 cases—interviewed.

For those people in the backlog who have been scheduled for an interview in 2015 (since the implementation of the new policy), how long did they have to wait? From the date the application was received until the date of the interview, the median wait time was 678 days. The following chart shows the wait times (in days – on the vertical axis) for our clients who were interviewed in 2015. You can see that there is some variability in wait times:

The family that had to wait the longest—809 days—had been scheduled for an earlier interview, but was rescheduled because their file was apparently not in the Asylum Office (where it disappeared to, we don’t know). It took an additional four months to retrieve the file and get the interview. Hopefully, we won’t see this problem again. Another of the longer-delayed cases had been scheduled for an earlier interview, but was rescheduled by the Asylum Office without explanation. This happens periodically, and we even saw it on occasion in the good old days, prior to the backlog.

Once people are finally interviewed, how long does it take to get a decision? The Asylum Office generally tries to make decisions in two weeks. Of the 16 cases from 2015, eight have received decisions. Sixteen cases is a very small number, and so we can only draw limited conclusions from this data. However, the oldest case in the group of 16 has been languishing since January. And, unfortunately, this person is not alone. Many others who were interviewed in 2013 and 2014 are still waiting for their decisions.

So that is a look at what we know now. As we continue to analyze the data, we will post what we learn.

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Asylum and EAD Delays – An Update from the Ombudsman

by Jason Dzubow

The Office of the Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman recently released its 2015 annual report to Congress. The report discusses all aspects of USCIS operations, and provides some new information about the asylum backlog and the government’s efforts to improve the situation.

To resolve the backlog, each Asylum Officer will have to complete 243 cases. Ugh.
To resolve the backlog, each Asylum Officer will have to complete 243 cases. Ugh.

You may already be familiar with the Ombudsman’s office–they are the ones who provide individual case assistance to affirmative asylum seekers and other USCIS “customers” (as they are called). They are also tasked with improving the quality of USCIS services by making recommendations to improve the administration of immigration benefits. The annual report includes these recommendations.

In this posting, I want to discuss a few of the report’s findings that relate to asylum. Also, I will discuss the steps USCIS is taking to address the asylum backlog, and some recommendations for future improvements.

First, some findings. The report summarizes where we are now: 

A substantial backlog of affirmative asylum applications pending before USCIS has led to lengthy case processing times for tens of thousands of asylum seekers. Spikes in requests for reasonable and credible fear determinations, which have required the agency to redirect resources away from affirmative asylum adjudications, along with an uptick in new affirmative asylum filings, are largely responsible for the backlog and processing delays. Although USCIS has taken various measures to address these pending asylum cases, such as hiring additional staff, modifying scheduling priorities, and introducing new efficiencies into credible and reasonable fear adjudications, the backlog continues to mount.

All this, we already know, but here are some numbers: At the end of FY 2011 (September 30, 2011), there were 9,274 affirmative asylum cases pending before USCIS. By the end of December 2014, that figure reached 73,103—an increase of over 700 percent (by May 2015, the number had grown to over 85,000 cases).

Probably the main reason for the backlog is the large numbers of asylum seekers arriving at the Southern border from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. When someone arrives at the border and requests asylum, an Asylum Officer gives the applicant a reasonable fear interview or a credible fear interview (if the person “passes” the interview, she will generally be sent to Immigration Court, where a Judge will determine whether she qualifies for asylum). In FY 2011, there were a total of 14,627 such interviews. In FY 2014, there were 60,085 – a four-fold increase. The Ombudsman notes that, “Various factors have contributed to this rapid rise in credible and reasonable fear submissions, including widespread crime and violence in Central America, where a majority of the applicants originate.” The report continues:

These substantial increases demand considerable USCIS personnel and resources. For example, many Asylum Offices now send officers to various detention facilities around the nation to conduct credible and reasonable fear interviews. Such assignments deplete resources previously dedicated to affirmative asylum applications.

Another reason for the backlog is that the rate of new affirmative asylum filings has grown. “In FY 2011, asylum seekers filed 35,067 affirmative asylum applications with USCIS.” “In FY 2014, asylum seekers filed 56,912 affirmative asylum applications, a 62 percent increase.”

In addition, between September 2013 and December 2014, the number of “Unaccompanied Alien Children” with cases before USCIS increased from 868 to 4,221. These cases receive priority over backlogged adult applicants.

So what has USCIS done to address the delay?

First, the Asylum Division has been hiring more Asylum Officers. In 2013, there were 203 officers; by January 2015, there were 350, and the Asylum Division has authorization to elevate its total number of Asylum Officer positions to 448. Unfortunately, Asylum Officers do not stay in their jobs very long. The average tenure is only 14 months. One reason for the low retention rate may be that the Asylum Officer position does not have great promotional potential. Salaries start in the low $50-thousands and max out at less than $100,000. By comparison, lawyers who work in other areas of the federal government can earn more than $150,000 per year (and salaries in the private sector can be much higher).

Second, starting in late December 2014, USCIS now interviews cases on a “first-in, first-out” basis, meaning that the oldest cases are interviewed first. There is concern that such a system will encourage people to file frivolous cases in order to get a work permit while their cases are pending, but so far, we really do not know if that is happening.

Third, in May 2015, USCIS announced that it would begin publishing estimated wait times for asylum interviews at the different Asylum Offices. Supposedly, they will provide an approximate timetable—roughly a two to three-month range—within which the interview will take place. We have been hearing about this idea for some time, and hopefully, USCIS will post this information soon.

Finally, “USCIS has implemented a range of policy and procedural changes in the credible and reasonable fear contexts that have had the effect of shortening case processing times.” For example, more interviews are conducted telephonically, as opposed to in-person, which helps save the Asylum Officer’s time. Of course, shortcuts potentially affect the quality of the decision-making, and USCIS is monitoring this. Personally, given that the large majority of applicants “pass” their credible and reasonable fear interviews, I think it would save time to eliminate the interviews altogether, and allow anyone to submit an asylum application and go directly to court.

The report also lists two ways to potentially accelerate the interview date: (1) interview expedite requests; and (2) interview “Short Lists:”

First, each Asylum Office accepts and evaluates requests for expedited interviews, granting or denying those requests based on humanitarian factors, such as documented medical exigencies, as well as the Asylum Office’s available resources. Depending on the Asylum Office, applicants may make these requests in-person or via email. Some Asylum Offices also maintain Short Lists, containing the names of backlogged applicants who have volunteered to make themselves available for interviews scheduled on short notice due to unforeseen interview cancellations or other developments. Backlogged applicants may wish to contact their local Asylum Office to inquire about the availability of such a list.

I discussed these ideas, and a few others, here.

Lastly, I want to briefly discuss the report’s findings related to delays obtaining Employment Authorization Documents (“EADs”). The main point of interest here is that the delays are seasonal. For various reasons, EAD applications filed during the summer months take longer. This means–if possible–try to file for or renew your EAD outside the busy season. To me, there is an easy solution to this problem, at least as far as asylum seekers are concerned: USCIS should make the EAD valid for two years instead of one, or better yet, tie the EAD to the asylum application, so it is valid for the duration of the case. I have discussed problems and suggestions for improvement in the EAD process here.

Perhaps it provides some comfort to asylum seekers to know that the U.S. government is trying to reduce the backlog and move their cases along. If you are interested to learn more, take a look at the full report.

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Update on the Asylum Backlog

by Jason Dzubow

If you’ve visited this website before, you know that I’ve written about the asylum backlog again and again… and again and again and again and again. And yet again. And once more. And probably a few other times in-between. USCIS recently released some new statistics on asylum, and so I thought I would share them here and discuss the current situation.

Measured in smoots, the backlog is 86.9 miles long + one ear.
Measured in smoots, the backlog is 86.9 miles long + one ear.

First off, despite the efforts of the Asylum Division, the backlog continues to grow. In January 2015, the total number of backlogged cases was 76,446. By the end of March 2015, there were 82,175 backlogged asylum cases nationwide. The numbers have only increased since then.

The main cause of the backlog has been large numbers of people–mostly young people–coming to the United States from Central America. These young people are detained at the border and receive a credible fear interview, which is an initial assessment of eligibility for asylum. If they pass the credible fear interview, their case is referred to an Immigration Court, which then fully reviews their asylum application. The credible fear interviews are conducted by Asylum Officers, and because they are detained at government expense, the young people are given priority over other (non-detained) asylum seekers. Because the Asylum Division must devote resources to these credible fear interviews, they have been unable to keep up with the more traditional asylum cases. Hence, the backlog.

I keep expecting the number of young people coming here to wane, but so far that has not been the case. Indeed, the number of people coming from Central America this year is nearly identical to the numbers we saw last year. And given that summer is traditionally a busier time for migration from Central America, we can expect more young people to arrive at our border in the next few months. Thus, it seems likely that the backlogged cases will keep piling up.

According to the latest statistics, the least backlogged offices are Houston (3,971 backlogged cases), Arlington (5,791), and Chicago (6,485). The most backlogged office is Los Angeles (17,042), followed by Newark (14,924), New York (13,568), Miami (11,366), and San Francisco (9,028). Wait times in these offices roughly correlate with the number of cases backlogged, so Houston is currently the fastest office and Los Angeles is the slowest.

Of course, obtaining a (relatively) quick interview date is of little value if the case is denied. In terms of grant rates, the fastest offices are not necessarily the most likely to grant asylum. Although the statistics on this vary, the offices in Chicago, Houston, Miami, Newark, and New York all grant asylum less than 33% of the time. Arlington and Los Angeles grant about 50% of their cases, and San Francisco grants over 60% of its cases.

So what is the Asylum Division doing to address the backlog?

For one thing, they have been hiring more Asylum Officers. Since the backlog began in 2013, the number of staff members has increased by 90% and they continue to hire and train more officers. It appears that the Asylum Division will continue to add new officers through 2016. So if–and it is a big if–we see a drop in credible fear interviews at the border, the asylum offices should be well positioned to make some progress on the backlog.

The Asylum Division is also making an effort to keep the public more informed about the backlog. For some months now, there has been discussion about providing more information about processing times at the different asylum offices (for example, the Arlington, Virginia office is currently interviewing cases from July 2013). Because workloads are unpredictable, the asylum offices do not know when they will interview an individual case, but they do know which cases they are processing now. By posting this information, at least asylum seekers will have some idea about where they stand in the queue (the Department of State has a similar system for family- and employment-based immigration visas).

The asylum offices have also created some very limited ways to expedite cases. I have discussed those here.

As an advocate for asylum seekers, of course I believe that more should be done. Most importantly, I would like to see the asylum offices give higher priority to people separated from their immediate relatives. I would also like to see more resources devoted to processing I-730 petitions, which allow approved asylum seekers to bring their spouses and children to the U.S. Also, given that asylum cases are moving slowly, I would like to see USCIS issue work permits (EADs) for two or more years, instead of just one year. Finally, I would like to see responsibility for credible fear interviews moved from the Asylum Division to a separate unit or–better yet–the elimination of credible fear interviews altogether (CFIs are basically rubber stamps and thus a waste of resources; it would be better if such cases were adjudicated in the first instance by an Immigration Judge).

The Asylum Division is faced with a very difficult–if not impossible–task: To continue adjudicating asylum cases while dealing with an unpredictable and overwhelming number of credible fear cases, all the while, with a hostile Congress looking for excuses to reduce asylum protections. For the sake of our asylum system and those who need protection, I hope they can navigate these treacherous waters.

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Old Asylum Cases Are the New Priority

by Jason Dzubow

As of December 2014, there was 73,103 asylum cases pending in Asylum Offices across the United States. That’s up from 65,759 in October, an increase of 7,344 cases in just three months (you can see the latest stats here, including a breakdown for each Asylum Office). So it’s clear that despite their efforts, the Asylum Offices are continuing to fall behind in terms of processing cases. Indeed, in the best month of the last quarter, the Asylum Office completed 2,947 cases. At that rate–and assuming no new applicants file for asylum–it would take over two years to get through the current backlog. This is not good, and the Asylum Offices are now making changes to deal with the situation. 

"Congratulations! It's finally your turn."
“Congratulations! It’s finally your turn.”

I’ve written before about the reasons for these delays. Primarily, it was due to a significant increase of asylum seekers from Central America arriving at our Southern border. As best as I can tell, the number of people coming here from Central America has not abated. Since most of these applicants are detained at government expense and because many of them are minors, their cases are given priority, at the expense of other asylum seekers.

So how were the Asylum Offices dealing with the increased volume, and what has changed?

Until December of last year, the Asylum Offices were attempting to process cases on a “last in, first out” basis.  Meaning, they skipped over the old cases and tried to process new cases. The logic was that if they started with the old cases, processing times would be greatly increased for new cases. If an alien knows her case will take several years, she might decide to file a frivolous case, just for the Employment Authorization document (“EAD”). The slower the case moves–the thinking goes–the greater the incentive for such people to file false cases. The fear of frivolous applicants taking advantage of the system in this way is not unfounded.

In the 1980s and early 1990s, when a person filed for asylum, he received an EAD more quickly. At this time, there were massive delays and cases took many years. The combination of long waiting periods and quick EADs encouraged fraud. I heard one anecdote from an INS officer who remembered a U-Haul truck full of applications arriving for processing. They were all boilerplate cases from China, filed by the same (probably unscrupulous) attorney. Even if the cases were ultimately denied, the applicants would have an EAD and be able to live and work in the U.S. for several years. Of course, many cases during this period were legitimate. In those days, there were very brutal civil wars in several Central American countries. As a result, many people fled to the United States.

In 1995, the law changed so that asylum applicants had to wait 180 days before they were eligible for an EAD (though they could mail the application for the EAD after 150 days). This was intended to reduce fraud. I have my doubts as to whether this change made much of an impact, but as the civil wars to our South ended, refugee flows decreased, and the Asylum Offices slowly reduced wait times.  By the time I went into private practice (in late 2003), asylum cases were interviewed a few months after filing, and most applicants received decisions a few weeks after the interview.

This all changed in early 2013, when large numbers of Central Americans–mostly young people–again began arriving at our border. The migration was not spurred by war, but by generalized violence from gangs and domestic abusers, as well as a failure by Central American governments to protect their citizens. The influx of new people overwhelmed the system and created the situation that we have today.

USCIS (the Asylum Office) has been struggling to keep up. Here is a recent announcement about their efforts:

The USCIS Asylum Division is hiring an additional 175 asylum officers, increasing the number of authorized asylum officer positions to 448. This represents a 65% increase since July 2013. As of January 2015, the Asylum Division has 350 officers on board and continues to hire and train new personnel. During 2014, USCIS also trained and temporarily detailed officers to the Asylum Division to assist with the increasing workload. 

Unfortunately, their efforts have not been enough. As of December 26, 2014, they abandoned the “last in, first out” system. Now, the Asylum Offices will process cases in the following order of priority:

  • First, applications that were scheduled for an interview, but the applicant requested a new interview date;
  • Second, applications filed by children; and
  • Third, all other pending affirmative asylum applications will be scheduled for interviews in the order they were received, with oldest cases scheduled first.

In other words, aside from rescheduled cases and cases involving children, the Asylum Offices will now process old cases first. So what does this mean? 

First, the good news. For those who have been waiting for two years for an interview, hopefully, your time is coming soon (though in my office, we have not yet seen any of our old cases scheduled).

Next, the bad news. If you are a new asylum applicant, you can expect to wait a long time for your interview. How long, we do not know, but I suspect that–even if they hire more officers, as they are trying to do–it will be at least a year. There are some minimal things to do to make a case faster (the “short list” and a request to expedite for emergent reasons), but generally it is very difficult to obtain a faster interview date.

And finally, the possibly bad news. We will see whether long delays encourage people to file more frivolous cases. If so, it will further clog the system.

As for me, of course I am rarely happy about change, and this change is no exception. I am glad that the government will start processing old cases. Those people have been waiting a long time. However, I wish they would give priority to people separated from their spouse and children–whether they filed two years ago or two days ago. It seems to me that single people can endure the wait much better. Like the old system, the new system does little to help people who are missing their family members, and to me, that is the real tragedy of the backlog.  

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USCIS Errors Compound Asylum Applicant Woes

by Jason Dzubow
"Bye, Mommy, I'll see you in high school."
“Bye, Mommy, I’ll see you in high school.”

I’ve written about the “backlog” a number of times. Essentially, as a result of large numbers of Central American youths arriving at our Southern border and seeking asylum, the system was overwhelmed and—though it didn’t exactly grind to a halt—there have been major delays for many applicants. The “surge,” as it is known, was not USCIS’s fault and, in fact, USCIS has worked hard to continue processing cases under very difficult conditions.

I’ve discussed before about some things USCIS could do to ease the burden on asylum applicants—prioritize applicants separated from family members, expedite following-to-join petitions once a case is approved, perhaps implementing “premium processing” for asylum applicants who can afford it—but lately I’ve noticed an unfortunate trend that USCIS needs to correct.

We’ve seen several of our clients’ applications for Advance Parole improperly handled or denied. Advance Parole is a document that allows an asylum applicant to leave the United States, travel to another country, and then return to the U.S. and continue her asylum application. When asylum applications generally took only a few months, Advance Parole was much less necessary. But now, when applications can take years, it is very important. In the era of the “backlog,” many asylum applicants face prolonged separation from spouses and children, not to mention parents, siblings, and friends. As you can imagine, these long separations are often the worst part of the whole process.

Advance Parole is a way to mitigate the difficulty of long separations. The applicant can obtain Advance Parole, travel to a third country to see her family members, and then return to the United States and continue her case. The application form itself (form I-131) asks whether the applicant plans to return to the country of feared persecution and—if the applicant returns to her country—it could result in a denial of asylum.

In recent weeks, we’ve been seeing two problems with USCIS decisions in Advance Parole cases. The first problem involves outright—and improper—denials of the I-131s. In these denials, USCIS claims that the I-131 must be denied because the applicant has not filed a concurrent form I-485 (application to adjust status to lawful permanent resident). In other words, because the asylum applicant has not filed for his green card, USCIS believes that he is not eligible for Advance Parole. This is simply incorrect: Asylum applicants are eligible for Advance Parole. See 8 C.F.R. 208.8. What is so frustrating about these denials is that we clearly indicated on the form I-131 that the person was an asylum seeker, and we included evidence of the pending asylum application; evidence that USCIS completely ignored. Not only do these denials prevent asylum applicants from seeing relatives (including relatives who are in very poor health), but they also waste money: The cost of an I-131 application is $360.00. To appeal the denial of an I-131 costs $630.00 (not counting any attorney’s fees) and takes many months, so it really is not worth the trouble and expense.

The second problem we’ve seen with Advance Parole applications is that USCIS has been requesting additional evidence about the purpose of the trip. So for example, where one client has a sick parent who he hopes to visit in a third country, it has not been enough to provide some basic evidence about the sickness (like a doctor’s note or a photo in the hospital), USCIS has requested more evidence of the health problem. Why is such evidence needed? As applicant for asylum is eligible for Advance Parole. He can travel for any reason: To see a sick relative, to attend a wedding, to go to a professional conference. So why should USCIS need to see evidence that a relative is ill in order to issue the Advance Parole document? It is insulting and unnecessary; not to mention a waste of time. I suppose this type of request for additional evidence is better than an outright denial, but it is still improper.

What also been a source of frustration, is that we’ve filed three identical Advance Parole applications for a husband, a wife, and their child. We mailed the applications in the same envelope with the same evidence. So far, the husband’s was denied because there was no pending I-485, the wife was asked for additional evidence about her sick relative (so presumably USCIS believes she can travel despite the absence of a pending I-485), and the child’s has been transferred to a different office altogether and is still languishing there. They say that consistency is the Hobgoblin of small minds, but it would be nice if USCIS could get its act together on these Advance Parole applications. Real people are harmed because of the government’s confusion about how to process these cases. I don’t know if it is a training issue or something else, but USCIS should examine what is going on here.

As the backlogged cases drag on and on, foreign travel becomes more important for many applicants. The uncertainty surrounding the I-131 applications, and the inability to see family members, is only adding to the applicants’ stress and frustration. Let’s hope that USCIS can resolve the problem and give some basic relief to asylum applicants.

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Back(log) to the Future: 60,000+ People Stuck in the Asylum Backlog

by Jason Dzubow

I recently participated in a panel discussion at the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation in Washington, DC. The panel was hosted by Congresswoman Yvette Clarke and featured speakers from academia, non-profits, government, and the private bar. The introductory speaker was the Ambassador of Jamaica, who (to my surprise) knew more about asylum law than most immigration attorneys. The focus of the panel was on asylum seekers of African decent (so, generally, people from Africa, the Caribbean, and Latin America).

Déjà queue - The backlog is back. Or maybe it really never went away.
Déjà queue – The backlog is back. Or maybe it really never went away.

One purpose of the panel was to bring attention to asylum seekers and refugees from Africa and the African diaspora. According to Jana Mason of UNHCR, despite the recent turmoil in the Middle East, the plurality of the world’s refugees and internally displaced people come from Africa. This is significant because in the United States, there is not a strong constituency to support these people (as there is for Cubans, for example). The result is that African and diaspora asylum seekers often receive less attention and less support than asylum seekers from other places. The CBC hopes to improve our government’s policies towards African asylum seekers, and our panel was part of that effort.

Panel speakers also touched on issues that affect asylum seekers in the U.S. more generally. The most important comments in that regard came from John Lafferty, the Chief of the Asylum Division at USCIS, who spoke–among other things–about the backlog (for some background on the backlog, check out my previous post).

The statistics Mr. Lafferty cited were sobering: 55,000 affirmative asylum cases filed in FY 2014, over 50,000 credible fear interviews, and a nationwide backlog of 60,000 cases. USCIS estimates that it might take three to four years to resolve the backlog, and presumably that’s only if unforeseen events don’t cause additional delay.

One piece of good news is that USCIS has been working hard to deal with the situation. In the last year or so, they’ve grown from 273 asylum officers to 425 officers, and they plan to hire additional officers going forward. I must say that my experience with the new officers has been a bit mixed. Most are excellent–professional, courteous, knowledgeable, and fair. A few, though, seem to be unfamiliar with the law or with basic interview techniques. Hopefully, as they gain more experience, these kinks will be worked out (and hopefully not too many legitimate refugees will be denied asylum in the mean time).

Despite USCIS’s efforts, the backlog has continued to grow. At this point, even if no new cases enter the system, it would take over one year to review all 60,000 cases. And of course, new cases continue to enter the system all the time. Given the large number of people stuck in the backlog, I’d like to offer a few suggestions on how to make life easier for those who are waiting:

First, and I think most importantly, USCIS should give priority to applicants with family members who are overseas. This can be done in at least two ways: (1) Review existing I-589 forms, and where there is a spouse or child who is currently not in the U.S., give that case priority; and (2) when a backlogged case is (finally) approved, give priority to any I-730 petition for family members following to join.

Second, and this would probably require a legislative fix so maybe it is pie in the sky, for any case that USCIS knows will enter the backlog, allow the applicant to file immediately for her work permit (under existing law, the asylum applicant must wait 150 days before filing for a work permit).

Third, instead of issuing the work permit (called an employment authorization document or EAD) for one year, issue it for two years (or more). A two-year EAD would make life easier for asylum seekers. Renewing the permit every year is expensive and processing delays sometimes result in people losing their jobs and driver’s licenses (which are tied to the EADs).

Fourth, devote more resources to backlogged cases, even if this means slowing down the process for newly-filed cases (backlogged cases have been skipped; USCIS processes new cases before backlogged cases). Even if only a few backlogged cases were being adjudicated, this would at least give hope to the thousands who are waiting without any sign of progress. Also, it would be helpful for people to have some sense of when their cases will be adjudicated. USCIS should endeavor to release as much information as available about their efforts to resolve the backlog. Given that each Asylum Office has its own website, perhaps the information could be posted there and updated regularly.

I recognize that USCIS’s situation is difficult and unprecedented, and that they have been overwhelmed by the large numbers of new applications and credible fear interviews. But from my view of things, the situation for those who are waiting is pretty rough. These modest suggestions would help to mitigate the difficulty for the most seriously affected, and would give some hope and relief to the others.

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