All the Bad News that’s Fit to Print (Updated 06/17/20, 06/18/20 – and it ain’t all bad!, 06/19/20)

by Jason Dzubow

[Updates to this post will appear at the bottom of the article]

There is an overwhelming amount of bad news these days. You’ve probably heard about the coronavirus pandemic and the upheavals caused by racial injustice, but in the last couple weeks, there has also been a flurry of bad news in immigration-world. We could spend months dissecting all that has happened, but here I just want to alert you to the highlights (or low-lights) of recent developments. Without further ado, then, let’s get this over with–

(1) The Administration has proposed sweeping new regulations that would dramatically impact asylum seekers. The main targets of these changes are (as usual) asylum seekers from Central America and Mexico–people fleeing gang violence and domestic violence–and people arriving at the Southern border and requesting asylum. But the proposed changes affect all asylum seekers. For an overview, see this brief article and this more detailed analysis, both by Aaron Reichlin-Melnick.

The new rule seeks to block asylum seekers who passed through a third country to reach the U.S., who failed to pay taxes or worked without authorization, and who have more than one year of unlawful presence in the United States. It also allows judges to “pretermit” (deny) asylum cases where the applicant has not set forth a prima facia case for asylum (this will be a particular problem for pro se applicants, who may not know how to articulate a valid claim). The regulation also narrows the definitions of “particular social group” and “political opinion” in order to more effectively block people who face violence from non-state actors. Further, the regulation raises the bar as to what constitutes “persecution” under the law, and encourages denying asylum based on discretion. Many of these rules are meant to affect people who have already filed for asylum, and could not have known about these burdensome new regulations when they asked for protection. While my take on all this is not quite as negative as that of Aaron Reichlin-Melnick (I don’t think everyone who passes through a third country will be barred), there is no question that, if implemented, these regulations will block many otherwise-eligible applicants from receiving asylum.

With all the bad news, I thought we could use a photo of a funny monkey. Take a moment to enjoy. And then keep fighting.

One last point: These regulations are not yet in effect. There is a 30-day comment period and the regulations would go into effect sometime after that, assuming they are not blocked by a court. In the mean time, you can submit comments here (use reference number “EOIR Docket No. 18-0002”). Apparently, if more people comment, it will help delay the implementation of the rule, so please consider submitting a comment.

(2) Due to a massive budget shortfall, USCIS is set to furlough over 70% of its workforce by the end of July. The agency claims that its financial problems are due to the coronavirus, but most observers (including me) believe that the main reason is the Trump Administration’s anti-immigration policies, which have blocked or discouraged many people from seeking immigration benefits. Since USCIS is 97% funded by user fees, the dramatic drop in applications has left the agency broke. It’s hard to imagine how cases will move forward if so many workers are laid off. This means we can expect even longer delays for work permits, green cards, naturalization, adoptions, work visas, and many other types of immigration benefits. Exactly which services will be effected, we do not yet know, but it appears that USCIS has already suspended processing of most green card applications. Worse, the departure of so many experienced employees will likely result in long-term damage to the agency.

USCIS publicly claimed that it requested $1.2 billion from Congress and that it would pay back the money by increasing user fees by 10% (on top of other proposed fee increases). However, as of last week, “the Trump administration had still not made a formal request for any emergency funding.” One knowledgeable USCIS employee I spoke with believes that the Administration has no intention to request the money or save the agency. She believes that destroying USCIS is part of the Administration’s plan to cripple our immigration system.

You can sign a change.org petition to demand that Congress fund USCIS, so it can continue its mission.

(3) An Office of the Inspector General report revealed that the Executive Office for Immigration Review (“EOIR”), the office that oversees the nation’s Immigration Courts, had substantially mismanaged its budget for FY 2019. The OIG investigation was initiated after EOIR Director James McHenry sent an email inaccurately characterizing the state of the agency’s budget. The report found that “EOIR leadership failed to coordinate effectively with its budget staff,” that the agency failed to anticipate the cost of court interpreters even though it had the necessary information to project those costs, and that “miscommunication across EOIR” led leadership to miscalculate its expenses. The National Association of Immigration Judges (the judges’ union) characterizes the situation at EOIR as follows–

The mismanagement uncovered by OIG in yesterday’s report is only the tip of the iceberg of persistent systemic and structural failures at EOIR. EOIR has failed to implement an electronic filing system, failed to properly hire judge teams as instructed by Congress, failed to secure adequate space to properly run the court and has persistently shuffled immigration judge dockets resulting in the unprecedented backlog of over 1 million immigration court cases.

The judges also reference a recent TRAC Immigration report, which indicates that data released by EOIR about grant rates in Immigration Court is “too unreliable to be meaningful.” TRAC notes that “EOIR’s apparent reckless deletion of potentially irretrievable court records raises urgent concerns that without immediate intervention the agency’s sloppy data management practices could undermine its ability to manage itself, thwart external efforts at oversight, and leave the public in the dark about essential government activities.”

(4) Speaking of EOIR, in a court-packing move that would make FDR blush, Director McHenry offered buyouts to nine BIA Board Members appointed prior to the Trump Administration. Though the agency denies it, this was a clear effort to further stack the Board with Members favorable to the Administration’s agenda. Indeed, the move follows an earlier decision to elevate six Immigration Judges with unusually high asylum denial rates to the Board of Immigration Appeals. For more on the politicization of the BIA, check out this posting by Judge Paul Schmidt, a former Chairman of the BIA with first-hand experience of an earlier purge at EOIR.

(5) We have been hearing news on our immigration lawyer list serves about a possible expansion of the non-immigrant visa suspension and an additional attack on asylum seekers. Nothing is known for sure, but it seems the Administration is planning to ban some non-immigrant visas (H-1b, H-2b, L-1, and certain J-1 visas) for a limited period, and to limit OPT for F-1 students. Also, we are hearing about the possible “rescission of employment authorization for asylees, refugees, and TPS holders that would face significant legal hurdles” (the quote is from my list serve; it is not an official announcement, and it is strange, as asylees and refugees are entitled to a work permit under the law). We do not yet know what this means, but my best guess is that the Administration will try to block EADs for asylum applicants (not asylees) who have a one-year bar issue.

(6) While this is not (yet) bad news, we are anticipating a decision in a Supreme Court case where the Trump Administration is attempting to end DACA (Deferred Action for Child Arrivals), the Obama-era program created to protect from deportation certain people who arrived in the U.S. as children. As many as 800,000 people could be effected. Given how the Court has ruled in past immigration cases, I’m not optimistic about the result, but we will have to wait and see. I’ve written about asylum for DACA recipients here, though the new proposed asylum rules would greatly reduce this already difficult option. 

(7) Education Secretary Betsy DeVos issued a rule barring colleges from granting coronavirus relief funds to DACA students. While Secretary DeVos claims that she is simply following the law as written by Congress, it seems that the law could have been interpreted to help the DACA students (and a substantial number of Congress people have protested the Secretary’s move). Since the pattern of this Administration is to harm the weak and vulnerable, it’s not surprising that Secretary DeVos interpreted the law in a way to exclude these students. The Secretary’s decision is the subject of a lawsuit, and so we will see what the courts decide.

Oy vey, That is more than enough for now. We can hope that courts will block some of these rules, but we also need to work to prevent a second term for this Administration, which has consistently lied about and attacked non-citizens and other vulnerable people. En la lucha! 

Update from 06/17/20

AILA [American Immigration Lawyer Association] has been in contact with USCIS, Hill staff, and reporters to obtain additional information on USCIS’s current guidance for the processing of adjustment of status applications. From what we have surmised, the hold on adjustment of status cases applies to cases that are pre-processed by the National Benefits Center before being sent to local USCIS field offices and specifically the following cases:

  • “I-485 interviews”; and
  • “I-485 interview waiver cases not already distributed”.

However, “emergent or sensitive” cases, such as those related to COVID-19, may be referred by officers to leadership to determine if the cases can move forward. It is also important to note that some adjustment cases are adjudicated by SCOPS (including for example, asylum, diversity visa, EB-4, T, U and VAWA cases).

Based on member reports, adjustment of status applications continue to be approved in instances where interviews have been waived. Therefore, the “hold” seems to be in reference to those cases that require in-person interviews before a final decision can be issued.

A hold on adjustment of status interviews could appear to be consistent with the information that USCIS has released concerning its phased reopening of in-person services. Although USCIS began reopening field offices for non-emergency services on June 4, 2020, the agency announced that “offices will reduce the number of appointments and interviews to ensure social distancing.” As local USCIS field offices begin reopening, USCIS has prioritized in-person services for naturalization oath ceremonies and naturalization interviews and continues to handle emergency services. AILA expects that as more social distancing protocols are lifted, USCIS should begin resuming other types of interviews and appointments.

However, given the hold on “interview waiver cases not already distributed” it seems to indicate that USCIS has stopped actively making interview waiver determinations and adjudicating those cases. Based on conflicting reports we have received it is unclear whether this is a temporary pause on interview cases or on all adjustment of status cases at field offices.

Update from 06/18/20

First, the good news – The Supreme Court, in a 5-4 decision, has blocked the Trump Administration from ending DACA, thus (for now) protecting hundreds of thousands of people. The basic reasoning is that the Administration failed to follow the proper procedures needed to end the program. In short, the Administration’s maliciousness was defeated by its incompetence. This is a fantastic decision, and it shows that it is possible to defeat the Administration, even in the Supreme Court.

The other news is that we are receiving more information about the Administration’s plan to block asylum seekers from obtaining a work permit. There is still nothing official, but reports indicate that people who entered the country without inspection or who filed for asylum more than one year after arrival will be blocked from receiving an EAD while their asylum case is pending. Again, this has not been implemented or even officially announced, so we will need to wait for the actual proposal. 

Update from 06/19/20

New regulations, which will officially be published next week, basically signal that USCIS will be taking longer to adjudicate EADs for people with pending asylum cases. I will review these after they are published, but it seems unlikely to make a big difference, given how unpredictable processing times already are.

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The Executive Order “Suspending Entry of Immigrants”

by Jason Dzubow

When the President issues an executive order, he first enlists experts to review the data and determine the exact nature of the problem. He then commissions a study to examine possible solutions and look at the pros and cons of each option. He carefully considers the law and takes into account dissenting points of view. His staff then crafts an order to achieve the desired ends, while avoiding as many negative externalities as possible.

I’m joking of course.

In the case of the new Executive Order, President Trump issued a late-night Tweet. Then, his staff, caught by surprise, scrambled to implement their boss’s vision and voila! An Executive Order was born.

America: Banning immigrants since 1882 (hows that working out for you?).

The new EO, issued yesterday evening, is based not on the Trumpian trope that immigrants bring disease. Rather, the order is justified based on the current economic crisis. Indeed, the title of the EO is Proclamation Suspending Entry of Immigrants Who Present Risk to the U.S. Labor Market During the Economic Recovery Following the COVID-19 Outbreak. This was probably a wise move, as we are now the epicenter of the pandemic, and so it would be difficult to justify keeping people out of our country due to health concerns. The economic justification, on the other hand, will be easier to defend (recall that under the Administrative Procedures Act, courts can block a regulation that is “arbitrary and capricious, an abuse of discretion, or otherwise not in accordance with the law”). While there is ample evidence that immigrants start more businesses than native born Americans and that 51% of start-ups worth $1 billion or more were founded by foreign-born entrepreneurs, there is some (less convincing) evidence that immigration depresses wages for certain groups, such as blue collar workers. But given the low threshold of the Administrative Procedures Act, this is probably enough of a justification for the EO to pass muster, particularly in the Supreme Court, which has been very deferential to the President’s authority vis-a-vis immigration.

So let’s talk about what the EO does and–more importantly–what it does not do.

First, who is blocked from obtaining a Green Card? As far as I can tell, the only people blocked from obtaining a Green Card are those who are currently overseas and who currently do not have a U.S. visa or other travel document. Essentially, this means that U.S. Embassies will stop issuing new travel documents for immigrants to come to the United States. For immigrants who already have their visa or travel document, they can still come to the U.S. Also, spouses and unmarried, under-21 year old children of U.S. citizens are excepted from the ban and can still immigrate to the United States. Other relatives, such as parents, siblings, and older children of citizens are blocked. Also blocked are family members of Green Card holders and most people seeking residency through employment. However, the ban does not apply to medical professionals and their immediate family members, EB-5 investors, adoptees, spouses and children of members of the military, aliens entering on a Special Immigrant Visa, and aliens whose admission is in the national interest or who are assisting a law enforcement investigation. In short, this is a fairly narrowly-tailored suspension of immigration, though for those people who are blocked, it will be difficult.

Second, how long does the “suspension” last? The EO indicates that it will remain in effect for 60 days. After that, depending on economic conditions, it could be extended.

Third, it is important to understand who is not affected by the EO. People seeking non-immigrant visas are not affected. Permanent residents (i.e., people who already have a Green Card) are not affected, whether they are currently in the U.S. or overseas. No one who is currently inside the United States is affected by the EO. This includes permanent residents, asylum seekers, asylees, refugees, and people applying for immigration benefits (inside the U.S.), such as a Green Card or asylum (one exception here might be people who wish to leave the U.S. and return using a provisional waiver). Also, the EO has no effect on Employment Authorization Documents (“EAD”) or on the right to seek humanitarian protection. Indeed, the EO specifically states–

Nothing in this proclamation shall be construed to limit the ability of an individual to seek asylum, refugee status, withholding of removal, or protection under the Convention Against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment, consistent with the laws of the United States.

Fourth, there are still parts of the EO that are not clear. One important question is whether I-730 beneficiaries are subject to the ban. Based on the above language, my sense is that they will not be affected, but I am not sure. Also, I am not sure about K-1 fiances, but since the K-1 is technically a non-immigrant visa, I expect that fiance-beneficiaries will not be affected. Finally, the biggest question is whether the ban will end in 60 days, or whether it will be extended if–as seems likely–the economic crisis persists. A 60-day suspension of immigrant visas will be manageable for most effected people. However, if the ban is extended, the harm to families and business will increase significantly.

Given that embassies are already mostly closed, numerous travel restrictions are already in place, and many flights are canceled, I’d venture that the new EO will have very little real-world impact. What then is the point?

On its face, the EO is meant to protect American workers from foreign-born competitors, but given all the exceptions to the ban, I doubt the order will result in a significant drop in immigration (beyond what we’ve already seen as a result of the world-wide shutdown). Thus, even if you buy into the proposition that immigrant labor has a negative impact on the job prospects for U.S. citizens, I do not see how the EO will protect many American workers. 

If all this is correct, then the only remaining purpose of the EO is to frighten non-citizens and to delight nativists. Unfortunately, I suspect it will accomplish both of those goals. But to my immigrant friends, it is important to understand that for all its sound and fury, the Trump Administration has achieved little with this new Executive Order. Perhaps that fact can provide some level of comfort in these dark times.

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No More Immigration? Let’s Wait and See

by Jason Dzubow

In response to the pandemic, President Trump has Tweeted that he will “temporarily suspend immigration into the United States.” What does this mean? Does President Trump have the authority to suspend immigration into the country? Will the order affect people who are already here? How long will this “temporary” suspension last?

The answer to most of these questions is that we don’t yet know. While the President likes to announce policy changes on Twitter, the announcement should not be confused with the policy change. We will need to wait for the Executive Order to know the details of this plan. But speaking generally, it seems to me that the President probably does have the authority to suspend immigration during a health emergency. As my friend Alex Nowrasteh, Director of Immigration Studies at the Cato Institute, states, “Title 42 of the U.S. Code enables the president to halt immigration for health reasons, while a recent Supreme Court decision upholding his travel ban gives him unlimited authority on immigration.”

Since the U.S. has more cases than any other country, it obviously makes sense to block immigrants from coming here.

Also, the President has broad authority over immigration as set forth in the Immigration and Nationality Act. For instance, INA § 212(f) provides, “Whenever the President finds that the entry of any aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, he may by proclamation, and for such period as he shall deem necessary, suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens as immigrants or nonimmigrants, or impose on the entry of aliens any restrictions he may deem to be appropriate.” Another section, INA § 215(a) states, “Unless otherwise ordered by the President, it shall be unlawful… for any alien to depart from or enter or attempt to depart from or enter the United States except under such reasonable rules, regulations, and orders, and subject to such limitations and exceptions as the President may prescribe.” These sections are quite broad, and have not been tested in court, but given the Supreme Court’s position on immigration in recent cases, it seems likely that an order suspending immigration into the country during the pandemic would be upheld.

In practical terms, though, I am not sure what the suspension actually means. For one thing, immigration is effectively already suspended, given that U.S. Embassies are generally not issuing visas and most flights are canceled. Also, there are existing restrictions on travel from many countries, including China and the EU. So whether an executive order actually changes anything, I am not sure.

Finally, in terms of the unknowns, it is important to wait for the actual Executive Order. Once we have that, we can analyze the legality of the order and any practical effects. Speculating about what the order will say is not helpful, and will likely only result in unnecessary stress. The Trump Administration has been targeting immigrants from the get go, and so this is just one more effort in that direction. We do not know whether the order will impact people already in the U.S. who are seeking status (asylum seekers or applicants for permanent residency). We also do not know if it will affect people with pending applications or applications for work permits. We do not even know if the order will affect people seeking to enter the United States with a non-immigrant visa. Indeed, we know nothing except what was contained in one late-night Tweet.

The fact is, while the President has broad authority over immigration (especially given the deferential position of the Supreme Court), that authority is not unlimited. Under the Administrative Procedures Act, courts can block a regulation that is “arbitrary and capricious, an abuse of discretion, or otherwise not in accordance with the law.” So for example, while there may be a rational basis to prevent people from coming into the United States during the pandemic, it will be harder to justify denying asylum or a Green Card to people who are already here (aside from that, given the time frame for most applications, the pandemic may be long over before they are adjudicated).

In short, despite the President’s ominous Tweet, we need to remain calm. It’s unlikely to make any real difference in the short term, and when the pandemic eases, which it inevitably will, the justification for an order limiting immigration will be much weaker.

It is truly unfortunate that our President seems only to have one solution for every problem: Blame foreigners. In the mean time, our country has become the epicenter of the pandemic, with more cases and more deaths than any other nation. Yet another attack on noncitizens will not help our economy and will not keep us healthy. For now, we will have to wait to see what the Executive Order says, but regardless, we the people must continue to support each other and to stand together against the coronavirus and against the unjust attacks on our noncitizen neighbors. 

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The Great Asylum Officer Rebellion of 2019

by Jason Dzubow

The Trump Administration has been doing everything it can to block asylum seekers from reaching our shores (everything, that is, except working with Congress to reform the law). Many of the Administration’s policies are legally questionable (to put it mildly), and have been challenged in federal court. Now, in an extraordinary move, a union that represents Asylum Officers has filed an amicus brief opposing a policy of President Trump (their boss).

The Administration policy at issue is officially known as the Migrant Protection Protocols or MPP. It is also called the “Remain in Mexico” plan, and it requires many asylum seekers entering the United States from Mexico illegally or without proper documentation to be returned to Mexico for the duration of their immigration proceeding. As a result of the MPP, over 12,000 people have been forced to wait in Mexico while their cases are adjudicated in the U.S.

Acting USCIS Director Ken Cuccinelli responds to the question, “How many asylum seekers will be interviewed this year under the MPP?”

The problems with the MPP are too numerous to list here. But for starters, Mexico is not a safe place for many asylum seekers, especially women, children, and sexual and ethnic minorities. Another problem is that asylum applicants stuck in Mexico have less access to legal assistance and less due process of law. Of course, all this is by design, as the MPP is clearly meant to deter people from seeking asylum by punishing those who have the temerity to ask us for help.

Apparently, the MPP was also too much for many Asylum Officers, who are charged with evaluating asylum claims made by people arriving at our Southern border. Through their union, Local 1924, a group of Officers filed an “amicus” or “friend of the court” brief supporting a lawsuit that seeks to block the MPP. Amicus briefs must include a “statement of interest,” explaining why the filing party has an interest in the matter. Here is what Local 1924 had to say:

Local 1924 has a special interest in this case because, as the collective bargaining unit of federal government employees who are at the forefront of interviewing and adjudicating the claims of individuals seeking asylum in the United States, Local 1924’s members have first-hand knowledge as to whether the MPP assures the United States’ compliance with international and domestic laws concerning due process for asylum seekers and the protection of refugees and whether the MPP is necessary to deal with the flow of migrants through our Nation’s Southern Border.

There are two main reasons that Local 1924 objects to the MPP:

  • In the course of waiting [in Mexico] for a determination of their asylum applications, many [asylum seekers] will face persecution because of their race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a particular social group. By forcing a vulnerable population to return to a hostile territory where they are likely to face persecution, the MPP abandons our tradition of providing a safe haven to the persecuted and violates our international and domestic legal obligations.
  • Moreover, the MPP is entirely unnecessary, as our immigration system has the foundation and agility necessary to deal with the flow of migrants through our Southern Border. The system has been tested time and again, and it is fully capable—with additional resources where appropriate–of efficiently processing asylum claims… The MPP, contrary to the Administration’s claim, does nothing to streamline the process, but instead increases the burdens on our immigration courts and makes the system more inefficient.

In short, the officers charged with enforcing the asylum law at the Southern border think that the MPP violates the law and endangers people who our country is obliged (under international and domestic law) to protect.

Predictably, the Acting Director of USCIS (which oversees the Asylum Division), Ken Cuccinelli, issued a statement “blasting” the amicus brief:

Union leadership continues to play games while the border crisis intensifies. Lives are being lost, detention facilities are unsustainably overcrowded, and illegal aliens with frivolous claims continue to overwhelm our system. The fact of the matter remains that our officers signed up to protect the truly vulnerable, our asylum system, and most importantly, our country. A cheap political stunt helps no one and certainly does not help to contain this crisis.

In his statement, Mr. Cuccinelli fails to address any of the substantive claims raised in the amicus brief (shocking, I know). Instead, he falls back on the old talking point that frivolous asylum claims are somehow to blame for the crisis at the border. Of course, there is little evidence to support this position, but as a climate-change denier, Mr. Cuccinelli is obviously not beholden to concepts such as evidence or common sense (or common decency).

In my experience, most Asylum Officers take their jobs very seriously. They recognize their duty to uphold the asylum law and to grant or deny protection where appropriate. They also recognize their duty to protect the United States. This sense of responsibility to country stands in sharp contrast to the arrogance of the Trump Administration and the USCIS Acting Director, who seem to think they can run roughshod over our nation’s laws and force government employees to do the same. For this reason, I think the amicus brief is significant: It stands as an expression of independence of Asylum Officers (or at least those in Local 1924) to make decisions in accordance with the law, even when their higher-ups demand that they do otherwise.

I hope Asylum Officers and Immigration Judges around the country will take note. I hope that they will read the amicus brief, particularly the recitation of our country’s proud (but imperfect) history of protecting people fleeing harm. And most of all, I hope Officers and Judges will continue to follow the law, even when the political leadership pushes them to ignore it. Following and enforcing the law is the ultimate “rebellion” against the current Administration’s lawlessness. Our asylum system, our country’s moral integrity, and the lives of asylum seekers all depend on it.

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Another Salvo in President Trump’s War on Asylum

by Jason Dzubow

In case you haven’t noticed, President Trump is not a fan of asylum seekers. His Administration has taken a number of actions to block asylum seekers from coming to the United States and to reduce legal protections for those who are already here. Now, the President has issued a policy memo instructing the Attorney General and the (acting) Secretary of Homeland Security to propose new regulations and re-arrange resources to further discourage migrants from seeking asylum in the U.S. Let’s take a look at this most recent move, and how it might impact the asylum process.

As a preliminary matter, the news is not all bad. In Section 2 of the memo, the President re-affirms his commitment to the humanitarian immigration system: “It is the policy of the executive branch to manage our humanitarian immigration programs in a safe, orderly manner that provides access to relief or protection from removal from the United States for aliens who qualify, and that promptly denies benefits to and facilitates the removal of those who do not.” While it may not be big news that the Administration will provide “relief or protection… for aliens who qualify,” since failing to do so would violate the law, we have to take our good news where we can find it.

“Pay for asylum? No problem. I’ll have my manservant write you a check whilst I finish my charcuterie platter and valet my Bentley.”

In addition, the thrust of the new proposals seem directed towards migrants arriving at the Mexican border. Indeed, the express purpose of the memo is to address the on-going “crisis” in “our immigration and asylum system… as a consequence of the mass migration of aliens across our southern border.” It appears that some of the coming changes will affect all asylum seekers–as opposed to only those entering from Mexico–but we won’t know for sure until the AG and the DHS Secretary draw up the new regulations.

Finally, it is important to note that none of the changes in the memo have gone into effect–yet. The President has ordered his team to propose regulations within 90 days, and after that, it will likely take additional time to implement those changes (and some may be challenged in court). So for the time being, none of the new rules listed in the memo are operational.

Turning now to the specifics, the memo calls for several significant changes:

First, as I read the memo, it requires all asylum applicants who pass a credible fear interview (an initial evaluation of asylum eligibility) to present their cases before an Immigration Judge. Previously, certain applicants–most notably, minors–could present their cases in the less-confrontational environment of the Asylum Office. Now, it seems, they must present their cases in court.

Second, the memo requires that, “absent exceptional circumstances, all asylum applications adjudicated in immigration court proceedings receive final administrative adjudication, not including administrative appeal, within 180 days of filing.” [please assume there is a long pause here, while I laugh and laugh, and eventually compose myself well enough to continue writing]. This ain’t gonna happen. No way. No how. It’s another iteration of what Judge Paul Wickham Schmidt famously calls “aimless docket reshuffling” or ADS. ADS is the process whereby a new Administration comes in and imposes its particular priorities on the Immigration Court system. The very predictable result of ADS is that cases get re-arranged, judges lose control of their dockets, and most everything gets delayed much longer than if management had just left well-enough alone. The Trump Administration is by no means the first to practice ADS, but they do seem to indulge in it more frequently than prior administrations.

Third, the memo calls for “regulations setting a fee for an asylum application not to exceed the costs of adjudicating the application… and for an initial application for employment authorization for the period an asylum claim is pending.” In other words, the government wants to charge asylum seekers to seek asylum (the affirmative asylum system is currently funded by other immigrants when they pay USCIS fees). How much this fee will be, we don’t yet know, but if the fee is meant to cover the cost of adjudicating the asylum application, it won’t be cheap. Will the fee include the cost of security background checks? Immigration Court proceedings? These processes are expensive, and few asylum seekers can afford to “do business” this way.

The memo does not indicate what happens to people who cannot pay, but we can’t just deport them. Indeed, the Immigration and Nationality Act (section 241(b)(3)) and the Convention Against Torture prohibit the U.S. from returning people to countries where they face certain types of harm (this is separate from, but similar to, the asylum law). Such people apply for relief using the same form (I-589) as asylum applicants. Will the government adjudicate these other types of humanitarian applications where the person is unable to pay for asylum? We don’t know this either.

Perhaps those who cannot afford to pay will be eligible for a fee waiver. That would help, but fee waivers require significant work to complete, and so, at a minimum, many lawyers would raise their fees (since we are paid for our time). This would make it more difficult for asylum seekers to obtain legal counsel.

As I read the memo, it also seems to be calling for a fee for the initial Employment Authorization Document (“EAD”). Currently, the first EAD for an asylum applicant is free. Renewals cost money (currently $410). EADs are valid for two years, and fee waivers are available, so this particular requirement, while harmful to asylum seekers, is probably not that damaging.

Fourth, the memo calls for regulations to “bar aliens who have entered or attempted to enter the United States unlawfully from receiving employment authorization before any applicable application for relief or protection from removal has been granted, and to ensure immediate revocation of employment authorization for aliens who are denied asylum or become subject to a final order of removal.”

Currently, an alien is eligible for an EAD 180 days after she files for asylum (she can submit the application 150 days after she files for asylum). If the new memo is implemented, asylum seekers who “entered or attempted to enter the United States unlawfully”can no longer receive an EAD unless and until their cases are granted. As the memo is written, this provision would probably not apply to an alien who arrived in the U.S. with a visa, but that is not entirely clear. The phrase “entered or attempted to enter the United States unlawfully” is subject to interpretation, and if interpreted broadly, it could block some asylum seekers from obtaining an EAD, even if they entered the U.S. with a visa (for example, if the visa was procured by fraud).

Ironically, if the government succeeds in adjudicating asylum cases within 180 days (and I am skeptical about that), the EAD provision will become less important, since cases will either be granted or denied before the alien is eligible to obtain his EAD. If the case is granted, the alien will be eligible to work immediately, and if it is denied, he presumably (based on this memo) would be ineligible to work while the matter is being appealed. The problem will be for applicants who face long delays, and are unable to work lawfully. How will such people survive the wait?

Finally, the memo calls on the Secretary of Homeland Security to “reprioritize the assignment of immigration officers and any other employees of the Department as the Secretary deems necessary and appropriate to improve the integrity of adjudications of credible and reasonable fear claims, to strengthen the enforcement of the immigration laws, and to ensure compliance with the law by those aliens who have final orders of removal.” It’s unclear (at least to me) what this means, but it seems like another version of ADS. Perhaps the plan is to shift resources away from adjudicating immigration benefits and towards enforcement. While this would certainly cause even more delay for individuals, families, and businesses who rely on USCIS, any boost to the asylum or enforcement sections of DHS seems unlikely. There is just not a lot of cross-over between the different functions of DHS, and so there are only so many resources that can be shifted around. In other words, I doubt the DHS Secretary can arm Naturalization officers and enlist them to chase after aliens with final orders.

President Trump’s memo leaves many unanswered questions, and so we will have to wait for the new regulations to learn the specifics. While some of these changes may be blocked by courts, others will likely go into effect. The result will be a further erosion of our proud tradition as a beacon of hope to those fleeing harm.

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The Irony and the Agony of a Government Shutdown

by Jason Dzubow

As you may have heard, parts of the federal government are closed for business. After two years of Republican inaction on “the wall,” somehow President Trump has decided that now is the time to shut the government down in an effort to “permanently fix the problem on the Southern Border.” Let’s look at the effect of the shutdown on immigration generally, and on asylum more particularly.

In immigration world, the biggest–and most ironic–effect of the shutdown has been to close most of the nation’s Immigration Courts. Courts that handle detained cases are still operating normally, but non-detained courts are closed. The irony is that shuttering the courts will have the effect of delaying the deportation of many aliens. On average (and based on current projections for FY2019), Immigration Judges will deport about 676 people per day. If we remove detained cases from the mix (very roughly speaking, detained cases make up about 13% of all Immigration Court cases), we can estimate that for each day the government is shut down, 588 people are spared from deportation. Given the long backlog in Immigration Court, most people with postponed cases will probably not return to court for another year or two, and so such people will be able to remain the U.S. far longer thanks to the shutdown.

$5,700,000,000 wall vs. $79 ladder.

Also from the Irony Department: The lapse in government funding means that Border Patrol agents–the very people who are supposed to guard our Southern border–will not be paid until the shutdown ends. As you can imagine, this is not great for morale. In addition, the E-Verify System, which allows employers to check whether a particular person is authorized to work, is down. If this “electronic wall” is not working, some “illegals” may be able to work. These results seems contrary to Mr. Trump’s stated goals of deporting more people and fixing the broken immigration system, but what else is new?

Of course, many asylum seekers will not be very happy about having their court cases delayed. Some have been waiting years for a decision, all the while separated from family members and living with great uncertainty. For such people and their families, the delay is heartbreaking.

To check on the status of the Immigration Courts, you can visit the EOIR website, which will indicate whether operations have resumed. If your court case is postponed due to the shutdown, the case will be rescheduled once the lapse in funding has been resolved. From EOIR:

Non-detained docket cases will be reset for a later date after funding resumes. Immigration courts will issue an updated notice of hearing to respondents or, if applicable, respondents’ representatives of record for each reset hearing.

In other words, the Immigration Court will send you or your lawyer a written notice for the new hearing date. You can also check the Immigration Court hotline, which indicates when your next hearing is scheduled. The phone number is 800-898-7180. This is a computer system; not a person. When it answers, follow the instructions and, when prompted, enter your Alien number. The system will tell you your next hearing date. Unfortunately, the hotline will not be updated during the shutdown, but once the situation is resolved, you can check for your next appointment (whether cancelled Individual Hearing dates will be set for another Individual Hearing or a Master Calendar Hearing, we do not yet know).

What if you want to file documents, evidence or a change of address with the Immigration Court? Immigration Courts and the Board of Immigration Appeals (“BIA”) are accepting filings for detained cases. As I understand, most courts are also accepting filings for non-detained cases, but such filings will not be acted upon. The problem is that such filings may get lost in the avalanche of documents that the courts receive. This problem will be especially acute if the shutdown drags on for weeks or months. My advice: If you have a deadline, file your documents, but make sure to keep a copy for yourself and have evidence that you filed (if you can file in-person, the clerk will stamp your copy of the documents; if you file by mail, you should keep a copy of the certified mailing receipt). If you do not have a deadline or an emergency, it is probably better to wait until the shutdown ends before filing any documents with an Immigration Court or the BIA.

For asylum seekers and immigrants who do not have court cases, the shutdown is far less consequential. USCIS obtains its budget from “customer fees” (i.e., money you pay for your green card, work permit, etc.), and so the lapse in government funding is not an issue (there is currently no fee for asylum, but USCIS customer fees fund the Asylum Offices). As a result, the Asylum Offices, USCIS offices, and Application Support Centers (the place that takes your fingerprints) are all operating normally. While this is unlikely to change, there is no harm in double checking before you make the trek to your appointment. You can do that here.

One final question is, How long will the shutdown last? Of course, we do not know. The longest shutdown to date occurred during President Clinton’s term, and lasted 21 days. The current shutdown began on December 22, 2018, and so as of this writing, we are approaching Mr. Clinton’s (or more accurately, Newt Gingrich’s) record. The shutdown is inflicting much damage on our country, including to some immigrants and asylum seekers. Let’s hope that our leaders can bring an end to the impasse as soon as possible.

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An Open Letter to the “Complicit” Asylum Officer

by Jason Dzubow

By now, you’re probably familiar with the famous, anonymous op-ed in the New York Times, written by a high-level member of the White House staff who is “resisting” President Trump. But in asylum-world, there’s another anonymous article getting attention. It’s an interview in Topic Magazine with an un-named asylum officer.

The interview is sad and poignant. It’s obvious that the officer cares about his (or her) job and the individuals who are seeking protection in the United States. With the advent of the Trump Administration and it’s increasingly hostile approach to asylum seekers, the officer is facing a crisis of conscious: “I struggle every single day with how to determine whether I’m causing more harm than good,” the officer states.

Asylum Officers review the latest Trump Administration policy memo.

One example the officer gives is the implementation of the infamous “zero tolerance” policy at the border, where parents and children were separated, often by trickery, and with no real plan for reunification:

I was interviewing moms in detention who were separated from their children. [U.S. government officials] took their children away from them. All that they wanted from me was to know where their kids were. They would ask me, “Where are my children?” But I was told not to tell them where their kids were. I was told not to tell them. When I say I’m complicit, this is what I mean.

Obviously, looking a desperate mother in the eyes and declining to give her information about her children is a soul-crushing experience. And, according to the anonymous officer, the Administration’s policies are having a deleterious effect on asylum officers:

People in the office are demoralized. I think the job was hard to begin with. There were already very high expectations, very rigorous screenings. Now, there is a fear among upper-level officers that the [asylum] program could get cut altogether, so everyone is trying very hard to not make any mistakes so that the program doesn’t get cut. My worry is that this will lead to people who should get asylum not getting asylum…. [At] this point, I can’t yet fathom what [bad thing] will happen next. I don’t want to, but I’m sure it will come. I never thought they would take kids away from their parents. What else could they do? They did that, so they could do anything.

What should a decent, moral person do in a situation like this? For me (as an outsider), the answer is not so clear. I have friends who have left government because they could not contribute to the goals of the Trump Administration. Other friends have chosen to stay, to do whatever good they can. Which approach is better probably depends on the individual and her circumstances, and I am quite sure it is not an easy decision either way.

If it were me, one factor in deciding whether to stay or go would be the impact of my choice on the asylum system. I have written this before, but it bears repeating here: In many ways our asylum system is sacred. Our country grants protection to strangers who arrive on our shores seeking refuge from danger. We offer asylum in part because it serves our national interests. But we also offer asylum because we are generous and good. By helping others, we help define ourselves. My decision to leave would depend in part on whether I thought my departure would make “the system” better or worse.

Asylum Officers, Immigration Judges, and government attorneys implement the asylum law. Without them, there would be no humanitarian immigration system. In my experience, most of these people are hard working. The majority are clearly committed to the rule of law, and to Justice (though we don’t always agree on what “Justice” looks like). They take their responsibilities seriously and recognize the life-changing nature of their work. They are the ones who have to make the difficult choices (choices that lawyers like me do not have to make): Whether to grant a close case or deny a sympathetic one that simply does not qualify for relief; whether to give an applicant the benefit of the doubt; whether to grant or deny as a matter of discretion. These are the tough choices that ultimately allow “the system” to continue functioning.

So it seems to me, the question for the anonymous asylum officer and many hundreds like him, is whether there is still room in the system–and in his particular job–to do Justice. In the case of our officer, it appears that such room still exists.

Even as the Trump Administration is working overtime to narrow the path for asylum seekers, it is still possible to do good. As the anonymous officer notes, “there is still space to be fair, and to provide opportunities for people.” And it’s not just fairness; it’s also kindness. Speaking about female asylum seekers detained at the Southern border, the officer says:

I think that oftentimes for the women who are detained at those facilities, [my interaction with them] will be the first moment that someone will be kind to them. The very first time in the whole process. They are not treated well at the border, by other agents in other agencies….

The value of such kindness is difficult to overstate. It can be the difference between hope and despair. Even for people who are ultimately denied, the fact that they were treated with respect and fairness makes a real difference. I have seen that myself many times.

As an attorney who represents asylum seekers, I hope that the anonymous officer will stay. When good people depart government service, the rule of law is degraded. The decency and compassion that have been–to borrow a word–the loadstars of our asylum system, are further eroded. And of course, the erosion of our humanitarian immigration system also marks a degradation of our country’s humanity.

These days, many good people in government are conflicted. The anonymous officer states, “I think about it [quitting] all the time.” I don’t blame the officer for this. It is painful to compromise one’s morals. But now, more than ever, I think we need people like this officer to stay. To do their jobs. And to pursue Justice.

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Stephen Miller Is Not a Hypocrite

by Jason Dzubow

If you follow the news about immigration, you probably know Stephen Miller. He’s a Senior Policy Advisor to President Trump, and he’s supposedly the nefarious driving force behind many of the Administration’s most vicious anti-immigrant policies.

Last week, Dr. David S. Glosser–Mr. Miller’s uncle and a retired neuropsychologist who volunteers with refugees–penned a powerful article refuting his nephew’s raison d’etre: Stephen Miller Is an Immigration Hypocrite. I Know Because I’m His Uncle. The article discusses the immigration history of Mr. Miller’s family, and points out that the policies espoused by Mr. Miller would have prevented his own ancestors from escaping persecution in Europe. Here’s Dr. Glosser’s money shot:

Trump and my nephew both know their immigrant and refugee roots. Yet, they repeat the insults and false accusations of earlier generations against these refugees to make them seem less than human. Trump publicly parades the grieving families of people hurt or killed by migrants, just as the early Nazis dredged up Jewish criminals to frighten and enrage their political base to justify persecution of all Jews. Almost every American family has an immigration story of its own based on flight from war, poverty, famine, persecution, fear or hopelessness. Most of these immigrants became workers, entrepreneurs, scientists and soldiers of America.

Can you guess which one is Stephen Miller?

It’s a powerful piece, in part because of Dr. Glosser’s relationship to Stephen Miller, and in part due to the juxtaposition of these two men. Dr. Glosser speaks from his personal experience dealing with refugees. He sees the story of his parents and grandparents in the stories of modern-day refugees. He has absorbed the lessons of the past, particular with regard to ethnic and religious demonization. Mr. Miller, on the other hand, seems inured to the suffering of his fellow humans and immune to the lessons of history. I have never heard him articulate a fact-based justification for his cruel policies. But he persists in advocating for those policies nevertheless. Mr. Miller’s background and how it influences (or fails to influence) his thinking are important questions, as is the “grim historical irony” of his views.

Here, however, I want to discuss a different question: Is it accurate to call Mr. Miller and the President hypocrites because their policies would have blocked their own ancestors from immigrating to the United States? A second, perhaps more important question, is this: Why does the first question matter?

A hypocrite is a person who pretends to be something that he is not. It’s an epithet often used for politicians who claim to be virtuous and honest, but who, in reality, are the opposite. The word derives from the Greek “hypokrites,” which means “actor,” and there’s a long and rich history of contempt for hypocritical politicians (Dante, for example, relegates the hypocrites to the eight circle of hell, which is pretty close to the bottom).

I don’t think that Mr. Miller or Mr. Trump are hypocrites simply because their immigration policies would have blocked their own ancestors from coming to the U.S. They may be bigots and bullies, whose policies are based more on falsehood than fact, but that is not hypocrisy. Indeed, Mr. Trump has repeatedly articulated his disdain for Muslims, Mexicans, people from “shit-hole countries,” etc., and so the fact that he enacts policies to exclude such people seems perfectly consistent with his world view. He and Mr. Miller may hold ignorant and racist views, but that does not make them hypocrites.

Why does any of this matter?

Aside from the fact that words should be used properly (or as Inigo Montoya might say, “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means”), it seems wrong to try to limit what people can do by shaming them as hypocrites based on their ancestry. Is the decedent of slave owners a hypocrite if she supports Affirmative Action? Would a Native American be a hypocrite if he became an immigration lawyer? Is the daughter of a candy store owner acting hypocritically if she becomes a dietician? You get my point. We are who we are because of, and in spite of, our progenitors. But I don’t think we should be condemned for the choices we make that are not consistent with the choices they made.

Further, with regards to a complex topic like immigration policy, labels such as “hypocrite” seem inapplicable and designed to shut down–rather than encourage–discussion. Even a person who personally benefited from U.S. refugee policy, for example, has a right to oppose the admission of additional refugees. Economic and political circumstances change, as does the population of refugees seeking admission to our country. Maybe you support admitting some types of refugees (those like you) and oppose admitting others. Such a position is likely based on ignorance of “the other,” but I don’t think it is necessarily hypocritical.

So condemn Mr. Miller for his bigotry and his lies. Call out the irony of his policies, which would have blocked his own ancestors from finding refuge in our country. But don’t call Stephen Miller a hypocrite. Sadly, he is exactly what he purports to be.

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Immigration Judges Revolt Against Trump Administration

by Jason Dzubow

In a little noted, but quite extraordinary move, the National Association of Immigration Judges (“NAIJ”) has asked Congress to protect its members (Immigration Judges) from the Trump Administration (their employer). The reason? The Trump Administration is seeking to “evaluate judges’ performance based on numerical measures or production quotas.” According to NAIJ, “If EOIR is successful in tying case completion quotas to judge performance evaluations, it could be the death knell for judicial independence in the Immigration Courts.” “Judges can face potential termination for good faith legal decisions of which their supervisors do not approve.”

EOIR is developing a more efficient way to adjudicate cases (and it comes with a free drink!).

Let’s start with a bit of background. NAIJ is a voluntary organization of United States Immigration Judges. It also is the recognized representative of Immigration Judges for collective bargaining purposes(in other words, the IJs’ union): “Our mission is to promote the independence of Immigration Judges and enhance the professionalism, dignity, and efficiency of the Immigration Courts, which are the trial-level tribunals where removal proceedings initiated by the Department of Homeland Security are conducted.”

According to NAIJ, the most important regulation governing IJ decision-making is 8 C.F.R. § 1003.10(b). This regulation requires that immigration judges exercise judicial independence. Specifically, “in deciding the individual cases before them, and subject to the applicable governing standards, immigration judges shall exercise their independent judgment and discretion and may take any action consistent with their authorities under the Act and regulations that is appropriate and necessary for the disposition of such cases.” 8 C.F.R. §1 003.10(b).

Up until now, IJs were exempted from quantitative performance evaluations. According to NAIJ, “The basis for this exemption was rooted in the notion that ratings created an inherent risk of actual or perceived influence by supervisors on the work of judges, with the potential of improperly affecting the outcome of cases.”

The Trump Administration is now moving to change the way it evaluates IJs. The main reason for the change is the Administration’s goal of reducing the very-large backlog of cases in Immigration Court (currently, there are about 640,000 pending cases). The Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR – the office that administers the nation’s Immigration Courts) recently announced a plan to “transform[] its institutional culture to emphasize the importance of completing cases.” In other words, EOIR will judge its judges based–at least in part–on the number of cases completed.

NAIJ has called this development “alarming” and a threat to judicial independence. Why? Because when judges are forced to complete a certain number of cases, they may be unable to devote the necessary time to each case. As a result, the ability to make proper, well-thought-out decisions will suffer.

This is already a problem in Immigration Court. One IJ famously quipped that his job involved adjudicating death penalty cases in a traffic court setting. And so pushing judges to do more cases in less time will potentially impact the alien’s due process rights, and the integrity of our Immigration Courts.

NAIJ has long believed that the system needs a “structural overhaul” and has advocated for converting the Immigration Courts into Article I courts. Article I refers to the first article in the U.S. Constitution, the section on legislative (i.e., Congressional) powers. The idea is that Congress would establish an independent immigration court, much like it created a tax court and a court of veterans appeal. Such a court would be independent of the Executive Branch–the branch of government tasked with enforcing immigration law (currently, IJs are employees of the Department of Justice, a part of the Executive Branch).

NAIJ recognizes that creating Article I immigration courts “may not be feasible right now,” but it nevertheless urges Congress to protect the nation’s IJs from the new Trump Administration policy:

Congress can… easily and swiftly resolve this problem through a simple amendment to the civil service statute on performance reviews. Recognizing that performance evaluations are antithetical to judicial independence, Congress exempted Administrative Law Judges (ALJs) from performance appraisals and ratings by including them in the list of occupations exempt from performance reviews in 5 U.S.C. § 4301(2)(D). This provision lists ALJs as one of eight categories (A through H) of employees who are excluded from the requirement of performance appraisals and ratings. To provide that same exemption to Immigration Judges, all that would be needed is an amendment to 5 U.S.C. § 4301(2), which would add a new paragraph (I) listing Immigration Judges in that list of exempt employees.

The fact that IJs themselves are concerned about the Administration’s move is worrying. The Immigration Judges I know are conscientious and take their jobs very seriously (in contrast to the Trump Administration, which seems utterly lacking in seriousness). If EOIR is making it more difficult for IJs to do their duty, as they understand it, then something is clearly wrong.

Perhaps the IJs’ concerns are overblown. Maybe EOIR will implement the new case completion standards in a way that does not damage judicial independence or due process. But given the Administration’s track record in general, and the inexperienced acting director appointed to head EOIR, it’s difficult to have much confidence in the new policy. Since Congress is unlikely to act on NAIJ’s request for protection, I suppose we will see soon enough how these changes affect the Immigration Courts.

Finally, in my opinion, EOIR has largely misdiagnosed the problem. While some delay may be caused by IJs kicking the can down the road, or by aliens “playing” the system, most delay is systematic–it is caused by reshuffling Administration priorities, which affect how DHS and DOJ schedule cases. I doubt that imposing numerical quotas on IJs will do much to improve the situation. Other solutions–facilitating pre-trial conferences, reforming the Master Calendar system, better use of technology, imposition of costs, premium processing for certain applicants–might be more effective. Everyone agrees that reducing the backlog is a worthy goal, but case completion requirements are probably not the best way to achieve that end.

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The Self-Fulling Prophecy of Demonizing Immigrants

by Jason Dzubow

In his book, American Homicide, Professor Randolph Roth of Ohio State University argues that homicide rates correlate closely with four distinct phenomena: political instability; a loss of government legitimacy; a loss of fellow-feeling among members of society caused by racial, religious, or political antagonism; and a loss of faith in the social hierarchy. He examines 400 years of American history and concludes that these four factors best explain why homicide rates have gone up and down in the United States and in other Western countries, and why the United States today has the highest homicide rate among affluent nations.

“Don’t make me angry. You wouldn’t like me when I’m angry.”

Prof. Roth recently elaborated on his theories in the Washington Post. He writes–

When we lose faith in our government and political leaders, when we lack a sense of kinship with others, when we feel we just can’t get a fair shake, it affects the confidence with which we go about our lives. Small disagreements, indignities and disappointments that we might otherwise brush off may enrage us — generating hostile, defensive and predatory emotions — and in some cases give way to violence.

He goes on to detail the varying homicide rates for different communities within the U.S., and how those homicide rates track with the particular community’s faith in our governing institutions–

The homicide rate peaked for African Americans during the Nixon administration, at 43 per 100,000 persons per year, when their trust in government was at its lowest and their feelings of alienation were highest. And it peaked for white Americans in 1980, at 7 per 100,000 persons annually, when accumulated anger over busing, welfare, affirmative action, defeat in Vietnam and humiliation in Iran boiled over into the Reagan revolution.

During the 2008 election, Prof. Roth predicted that “the homicide rate in America’s cities would drop because of what [Barak Obama’s] candidacy would mean to African Americans and other minorities, who live disproportionately in urban areas.” Prof. Roth also “worried that the homicide rate would rise in the areas of the country most resistant to the idea of an African American president.” Data from President Obama’s time as president now seems to support the Professor’s prediction (at least according to Prof. Roth–and I believe him).

So what does this mean for immigrants and asylum seekers?

Maybe the answer is fairly obvious–If we demonize and disenfranchise non-citizens, we increase the likelihood that they will engage in violent behavior, and perhaps other anti-social or criminal conduct as well. And of course, this is a vicious cycle–the more we alienate such people, the more likely they are to engage in bad behavior, and the more they engage in bad behavior, the more we will alienate them.

We also have to remember who we are talking about. Many aliens already feel, well, alienated. Many asylum seekers and refugees have already suffered trauma and feel insecure and victimized. Adding to that sense of alienation by labeling them terrorists or rapists, and by treating them as criminals, will only increase the likelihood of anti-social behavior in this population.

Prof. Roth, writing after the massacre in Las Vegas, notes that “most mass murderers have been deeply affected by the distrust, disillusionment and enmity that pervade our society…. We have all played a part in creating them.”

If the violent outliers of our society in some ways reflect who we are, then the obvious solution is for us to do better. To be more civil, more inclusive, more compassionate. To disagree respectfully. To listen more and talk less. Frankly, it’s not all that difficult. It’s what teachers teach in our schools every day. It’s what we require in our workplaces. It’s what we see in our places of worship.

Unfortunately, it is not what we have in the immigration debate. Read the comments section of any news article about immigration and you’ll see what I mean. Politicians–most notably our Commander-in-Chief–have taken the visceral feelings about immigration and amplified them. This creates its own vicious cycle, and empowers extremists groups, like we saw in Charlottesville.

Prof. Roth’s work (and common sense) suggests that if you keep hammering away at vulnerable people, a few of them will eventually react negatively. Hopefully, this will not take the form of violent behavior, but the likelihood of a problem seems greater in such a toxic and threatening environment.

I do think there are things that ordinary people can do to help. Many individuals and organizations have been working to support immigrants, Dreamers, Muslims, and other targets of xenophobia. Giving people hope, and showing them that they are not alone, can mitigate the damage. Government attorneys, Immigration Judges, Asylum Officers and USCIS Officers who continue to do their jobs, and who enforce the law fairly and treat non-citizens with respect, also help counter the harm caused by haters.

Most research suggests that immigrants commit fewer crimes than native-born Americans, but if Prof. Roth’s theory is correct, the current Administration’s nativist language and policies might help cause an uptick in criminal behavior in our immigrant communities. And of course, if immigrant crime goes up, the Administration can use the increase to justify its anti-immigrant policies. It’s up to us–those of us who stand with immigrants–to continue offering them help and hope, and to try to break this cycle before it begins.

 

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Trump Administration Lies About the Economic Impact of Refugees

by Jason Dzubow

There’s a Yiddish expression, “A halber emes iz a gantse lign,” which means, “A half-truth is a whole lie.” A recent article from the New York Times demonstrates that the Trump Administration is using half truths in order to justify its plan to reduce refugee admissions to historically low levels for the upcoming fiscal year. From the Times article:

President Trump is taking Simon and Garfunkel’s advice a bit too literally: “Lie, lie, lie, lie, lie, lie, lie, lie, lie, lie, lie, lie.”

Trump administration officials, under pressure from the White House to provide a rationale for reducing the number of refugees allowed into the United States next year, rejected a study by the Department of Health and Human Services that found that refugees brought in $63 billion more in government revenues over the past decade than they cost.

In other words, political officials suppressed a study from HHS because the results of that study did not support Mr. Trump’s policy goals.

The draft study was completed in July but never publicly released. Instead, it was leaked to the NY Times. The study was meant to look at the costs and benefits of refugee resettlement to our economy. How much do refugees cost us for things like public benefits, education, and law enforcement? How much do refugees contribute through taxes? Are refugees a net gain or a net loss, at least in terms of dollars spent and received?

The 55-page draft study found that refugees “contributed an estimated $269.1 billion in revenues to all levels of government” between 2005 and 2014 through the payment of federal, state and local taxes. Taking into account resettlement and other costs, the report estimates that “the net fiscal impact of refugees was positive over the 10-year period, at $63.0 billion.” When refugees and their family members were counted, the benefits were more modest, but still positive, at $16.9 billion. These results align with another recent study on the economic impact of refugees conducted by two professors at the University of Notre Dame.

The final, three-page report that HHS ultimately submitted includes only money spent by the government on refugees, without including revenue–literally, half the truth (and that’s being generous, since they reduced the size of the report from 55 pages to three). Maybe I can do the same thing on my own taxes–include only my expenses, but leave out revenue. I am not sure how that would go over with the IRS, but I’m guessing not well.

This strategy–of promoting the negative by leaving out the positive–is nothing new for the Trump Administration. Last Spring, the Department of Homeland Security launched the Victims of Immigration Crime Engagement (VOICE) office. According to DHS, VOICE will, “Provide quarterly reports studying the effects of the victimization by criminal aliens present in the United States.” So we get to see the negative impact of aliens on the United States, but we hear nothing about the positive contributions made by such people (and of course, the evidence is pretty conclusive that aliens commit crimes at lower rates than native-born Americans).

Not all government employees are on board with the Trump Administration’s anti-refugee program. The most obvious dissenter is the anonymous person who leaked the HHS report to the NY Times. More publicly, the State Department’s Director of Refugee Admissions told an audience at the Heritage Foundation, “We see… that refugees do very, very well, and it’s one of the reasons that we would like to see more long-term studies about refugee success and perhaps failure so that we can really see those areas that we should focus on more…. They’re taking jobs that are otherwise unfilled, and refugees, frankly, do quite well.”

There also seems to be internal disagreement about how many refugees we should admit to the country. For FY 2017, President Obama raised the refugee ceiling from 85,000 to 110,000, but President Trump has proposed reducing refugee admissions to 45,000 for FY 2018, which starts on October 1. Interestingly, officials at the National Security Council, the State Department, and the Department of Defense have lined up to oppose such a precipitous drop, presumably because they recognize the benefits of our refugee program.

By next week, we should know for sure how many refugees President Trump plans to admit in FY 2018. I’m not optimistic about the numbers, but I understand that reducing immigration was one of Mr. Trump’s core promises when he ran for president. What probably bothers me most about the whole process, though, is the blatant dishonesty of the President, who is trying to justify his refugee policy based on half truths and whole lies. An honest discussion might not result in a different outcome in terms of numbers, but it would be far better for our country and our democracy.

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Another Open Letter to My Friends at DHS and DOJ: After Joe Arpaio, What Now?

by Jason Dzubow

The Joe Arpaio pardon is an affront to anyone concerned about the rule of law. And this includes the lawyers, judges, and adjudicators I know at the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security.

Soulless Joe from Maricopo’

But before we get to that, we need to talk a bit about “Sheriff Joe.” A brief overview of his career as sheriff of Maricopa County, Arizona reveals various misdeeds, including–

abuse of power; misuse of funds; failure to investigate sex crimes; improper clearance of cases; unlawful enforcement of immigration laws; and election law violations. A Federal court monitor was appointed to oversee his office’s operations because of complaints of racial profiling. The U.S. Department of Justice concluded that Arpaio oversaw the worst pattern of racial profiling in U.S. history, and subsequently filed suit against him for unlawful discriminatory police conduct. Arpaio’s office paid more than $146 million in fees, settlements, and court awards.

But all that is not what ultimately led to where we are now. Mr. Arpaio was a defendant in a civil rights lawsuit. The judge ordered him to stop racial profiling, but Mr. Arpaio refused to comply. In a civil contempt proceeding, Mr. Arpaio admitted as much to the Court: “Defendants acknowledge and appreciate that they have violated the Court’s orders and that there are consequences for these violations.” In this particular case, the “consequences” proposed by Mr. Arpaio were for the tax payers of Maricopa County to foot the bill for a victim compensation fund. That didn’t pan out, and Mr. Arpaio was charged with criminal contempt.

He was convicted on July 31, 2017. The presiding judge wrote that Mr. Arpaio had “willfully violated an order of the court” by failing “to ensure his subordinates’ compliance and by directing them to continue to detain persons for whom no criminal charges could be filed.” Sentencing was scheduled for October.

Then last week, on a Friday night in the midst of a hurricane, President Trump issued a pardon for the criminal contempt and any other charges that might arise out of the same litigation. In an explanatory statement, the White House called Mr. Arpaio a “worthy candidate” who “protect[ed] the public from the scourges of crime and illegal immigration.”

So what does this mean? Of course, it means that Joe Arpaio won’t be going to jail. But on a more fundamental level, what does it mean for the rule of law? And what does it mean for those who enforce the law?

It seems to me that the clear signal sent by this pardon is that violating the law–by racial profiling or other means–is acceptable in order to rid our country of the “scourge” of illegal immigration. The ends justify the means.

Such an approach is antithetical to any society that values law and order, and that opposes tyranny. Those sworn to protect our nation’s laws must hold themselves to the highest standards. It is not for them to decide which laws to follow based on their subjective beliefs about right and wrong. They must follow the law. And when they don’t, they must be held accountable. When regular citizens fail to obey the law, it is anarchy. When law enforcement officers fail to obey the law, it is fascism.

And so the Joe Arpaio pardon is an endorsement of fascism. Whether you think all “illegals” should be rounded up and deported, or whether you think they should all be granted green cards makes no difference to this analysis. Fascism is fascism and law is law.

So what does all this mean for attorneys, judges, adjudicators, and others at DOJ and DHS?

It seems to me that you have a duty to uphold the law, regardless of whether the President is willing to tolerate or even encourage you to violate it in the service of his goals. That’s pretty basic, and we’ve seen examples of government officials following the law even when the President discouraged it (see Jeff Sessions and recusal).

But I think there is something more you can do. You can err on the side of non-citizens. Especially these days, the deck is stacked against aliens seeking immigration benefits. Simple mistakes on forms can lead to severe consequences. Minor criminal convictions can lead to banishment for life. The over-broad terrorism bar treats victims of terror like terrorists. Prosecutorial discretion is gone. The denial rate for asylum cases is on the rise. We are seeing more and more requests for evidence, and the wait time for many immigration benefits is getting longer. Not to mention the travel ban, increased use of detention, the backlog, etc., etc. In other words, the situation on the immigrant-side of the fence ain’t easy.

But if you are an adjudicator or an attorney or a judge with DHS or DOJ, you have some power to mitigate these difficulties. You have some flexibility in your decision-making. You are in a position to blunt some of the worst excesses of the Trump Administration. You can help act as a counter-balance when the President encourages law enforcement to push the boundaries of the law, as he did with the Joe Arpaio pardon.

Immigration and asylum laws are not nearly as harsh as the Trump Administration would have us believe. But the President is trying to use immigration law and procedure in a way that blocks people from coming here, or that deports those who are here. It is up to the people on the front line of that effort to protect the rule of law. Judges, adjudicators, and attorneys have the legal authority to grant cases, and in the face of the Trump Administration’s attack on the rule of law, they should continue to do so. The lives of many immigrants–and our country’s fealty to the rule of law–depend on it.

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In a Time of Hate, My Refugee Clients Give Me Hope

by Jason Dzubow

As an ordinary citizen, it is not easy to decide the best way to confront a Nazi march. Show up to peacefully protest? That might give additional attention to the other side. Protest violently? Not only could that elevate the Nazis, it might also de-legitimize the resistance to the Nazis (even those who peacefully resist). Ignore them? That might be viewed as condoning their views. Reasonable people can differ about what to do, at least as far as the peaceful responses are concerned.

As a great American philosopher once said, “I hate Nazis.”

But when you are a public figure, especially an elected official, the decision about how to respond is clear: First, ensure safety and free speech. Second, denounce the evils of Nazism and make it plain that Nazis, Klan members, and anyone who might march side-by-side with such people are un-American, illegitimate, and unworthy of a seat at the table of public discourse.

Fortunately, the vast majority of our country’s elected leaders knew what to say in response to the Nazi march last weekend. But unfortunately, there was one important exception–our President, Donald J. Trump. To me, Mr. Trump’s contemptible silence, followed by a reluctant “denunciation” of the Nazis, followed by a denunciation of the “denunciation” is an utter disgrace. It is a green light to Nazis. It is yet another attack on common decency and on our shared national values. It is complicity with Nazism. By the President of the United States. (As an aside, one of my lawyer-friends at the Justice Department told me–perhaps half jokingly–that she wanted to post a sign in her office that reads, “Nazis are bad,” but she feared it might get her into trouble–that is where we are under Mr. Trump.)

Frankly, I am not particularly worried about the Nazis themselves. They certainly can do damage–they murdered a young woman and injured many others. But they do not have the power or support to threaten our democracy. This does not mean we should take them for granted (few would have predicted Hitler’s rise when he was sitting in prison after the Beerhall Putsch), but we should not be unduly fearful either.

On the other hand, I am very worried about our President’s behavior. His governing philosophy (perhaps we can call it, “trickle down histrionics”) is poisoning our public debate, and it weakens us domestically and internationally. Thus far, his incompetence has served as a bulwark against his malevolence, but that can only go on for so long (see, e.g., North Korea). So there is much to be concerned about.

Here, though, I want to talk about hope. Specifically, the hope that I feel from my clients: Asylum seekers, “illegals,” and other immigrants. There are several reasons my clients give me hope.

One reason is that they still believe in the American Dream. Despite all of the nastiness, mendacity, and bigotry coming from the White House, people still want to come to America. They are voting with their feet. Some endure seemingly endless waits, often times separated from their loved ones, in order to obtain legal status here. Others risk their lives to get here. They don’t do this because (as Mr. Trump suggests) they want to harm us. They do it because they want to join us. They want to be part of America. My clients and others like them represent the American ideal far better than those, like our embattled President and his racist friends, who disparage them. When I see my country through my clients’ eyes, it gives me hope.

My clients’ stories also give me hope. Most of my clients are asylum seekers. They have escaped repressive regimes or failing states. Where they come from, the government doesn’t just tweet nasty comments about its opponents, it tortures and murders them. The terrorist groups operating in my clients’ countries regularly harm and kill noncombatants, women, children, and even babies. My clients have stood against this depravity, and many of them continue to fight for democracy, justice, and human rights from our shores. My clients’ perseverance in the face of evil gives me hope.

Finally, I have hope because I see the courage of my clients, who refuse to be cowed by the hateful rhetoric of our Commander-in-Chief. Since the early days of his campaign, Mr. Trump has demonized foreigners and refugees, and after he was sworn in as President, these individuals were the first to come into his cross hairs. If he can defeat people like my clients, he can move on to new targets. But many refugees and asylum seekers have been subject to far worse treatment than Mr. Trump’s bluster, and they are ready to stand firm against his bullying. Their fortitude encourages others to stand with them. And stand with them we will. The fact that vulnerable, traumatized people are on the front lines of this fight, and that they will not surrender, gives me hope.

I have written before about the tangible benefits of our humanitarian immigration system. It demonstrates to the world that our principles–democracy, human rights, freedom, justice–are not empty platitudes. It shows that we support people who work with us and who advance the values we hold dear. When such people know that we have their backs, they will be more willing to work with us going forward. And of course, that system helps bring people to the United States whose talents and energy benefit our entire nation. Add to this list one more benefit that asylees and refugees bring to our nation in this dark time–hope.

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President Trump’s 101-Year Deportation Plan

by Jason Dzubow

Joseph Stalin and Mao Zedong had their five-year plans. Nikita Khrushchev had his seven-year plan. And now President Trump has a 101-year plan. That’s how long it will take to deport the country’s 11 million undocumented residents if current trends continue.

Happy Birthday! Now, get the hell out of my country!

The most recent statistics on case completions in Immigration Court show that the Trump Administration has issued an average of 8,996 removal (deportation) orders per month between February and June 2017 (and 11,000,000 divided by 8,996 cases/month = 1,222.8 months, or 101.9 years). That’s up from 6,913 during the same period last year, but still well-below the peak period during the early days of the Obama Administration, when courts were issuing 13,500 removal orders each month.

Of course, the Trump Administration has indicated that it wants to ramp up deportations, and to that end, the Executive Office for Immigration Review or EOIR–the office that oversees the nation’s Immigration Courts–plans to hire more Immigration Judges (“IJs”). Indeed, Jefferson Beauregard Sessions, the Attorney General (at least for now) announced that EOIR would hire 50 more judges this year and 75 next year.

Assuming EOIR can find 125 new IJs, and also assuming that no currently-serving judges retire (a big assumption given that something like 50% of our country’s IJs are eligible to retire), then EOIR will go from 250 IJs to 375. So instead of 101 years to deport the nation’s 11 million undocumented residents, it will only take 68 years (assuming that no new people enter the U.S. illegally or overstay their visas, and assuming my math is correct–more big assumptions).

But frankly, I’m doubtful that 68 years–or even 101 years–is realistic. It’s partly that more people are entering the population of “illegals” all the time, and so even as the government chips away at the 11,000,000 figure, more people are joining that club, so to speak. Worse, from the federal government’s point of view, there is not enough of a national consensus to deport so many people, and there is significant legal resistance to Mr. Trump’s immigration agenda.

In addition to all this, there is the Trump Administration’s modus operandi, which is best characterized as malevolence tempered by incompetence. One statistic buried in the recent deportation numbers illustrates this point. In March 2017, judges issued 10,110 removal orders. A few months later, in June, judges issued 8,919 removal orders.

This means that the number of deportation orders dropped by 1,191 or about 11.8%. How can this be? In a word: Incompetence (I suppose if I wanted to be more generous—which I don’t—I could say, Inexperience). The Trump Administration has no idea how to run the government and their failure in the immigration realm is but one example.

There are at least a couple ways the Administration’s incompetence has manifested itself at EOIR.

One is in the distribution of judges. It makes sense to send IJs where they are needed. But that’s not exactly what is happening. Maybe it’s just opening night jitters for the new leadership at EOIR. Maybe they’ll find their feet and get organized. But so far, it seems EOIR is sending judges to the border, where they are underutilized. While this may have the appearance of action (which may be good enough for this Administration), the effect—as revealed in the statistical data—is that fewer people are actually being deported.

As I wrote previously, the new Acting Director of EOIR has essentially no management experience, and it’s still unclear whether he is receiving the support he needs, or whether his leadership team has the institutional memory to navigate the EOIR bureaucracy. Perhaps this is part of the reason for the inefficient use of judicial resources.

Another reason may be that shifting judges around is not as easy as moving pieces on a chess board. The IJs have families, homes, and ties to their communities. Not to mention a union to protect them (or try to protect them) from management. And it doesn’t help that many Immigration Courts are located in places that you wouldn’t really want to live, if you had a choice. So getting judges to where you need them, and keeping them there for long enough to make a difference, is not so easy.

A second way the Trump Administration has sabotaged itself is related to prosecutorial discretion or PD. In the pre-Trump era, DHS attorneys (the “prosecutors” in Immigration Court) had discretion to administratively close cases that were not a priority. This allowed DHS to focus on people who they wanted to deport: Criminals, human rights abusers, people perceived as a threat to national security. In other words, “Bad Hombres.” Now, PD is essentially gone. By the end of the Obama Administration, 2,400 cases per month were being closed through PD. Since President Trump came to office, the average is less than 100 PD cases per month. The result was predictable: DHS can’t prioritize cases and IJs are having a harder time managing their dockets. In essence, if everyone is a deportation priority, no one is a deportation priority.

Perhaps the Trump Administration hopes to “fix” these problems by making it easier to deport people. The Administration has floated the idea of reducing due process protections for non-citizens. Specifically, they are considering expanding the use of expedited removal, which is a way to bypass Immigration Courts for certain aliens who have been in the U.S. for less than 90 days. But most of the 11 million undocumented immigrants have been here much longer than that, and so they would not be affected. Also, expansion of expedited removal would presumably trigger legal challenges, which may make it difficult to implement.

Another “fix” is to prevent people from coming here in the first place. Build the wall. Deny visas to people overseas. Scare potential immigrants so they stay away. Illegally turn away asylum seekers at the border. Certainly, all this will reduce the number of people coming to America. But the cost will be high. Foreign tourists, students, and business people add many billions to our economy. Foreign scholars, scientists, artists, and other immigrants contribute to our country’s strength. Whether the U.S. is willing to forfeit the benefits of the global economy in order to restrict some people from coming or staying here unlawfully, I do not know. But the forces driving migration are powerful, and so I have real doubts that Mr. Trump’s efforts will have more than a marginal impact, especially over the long run. And even if he could stop the flow entirely, it still leaves 11 million people who are already here.

There is an obvious alternative to Mr. Trump’s plan. Instead of wasting billions of dollars, harming our economy, and ripping millions of families apart, why not move towards a broad legalization for those who are here? Focus on deporting criminals and other “bad hombres,” and leave hard-working immigrants in peace. Sadly, this is not the path we are on. And so, sometime in 2118, perhaps our country will finally say adieu to its last undocumented resident.

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Return of the Travel Ban

by Jason Dzubow

Days after President Trump took office, he moved to implement one of his campaign promises: To bar Muslims, refugees, and others from coming to the United States. Courts were not amused, and blocked significant portions of the President’s executive orders (thanks largely to the brilliant work of lawyers at the ACLU and at several states attorneys offices). The President tried again, with a new, more limited executive order (“EO”). The new EO was also severely limited by the courts.

You’d think a bunch of people in burkas would be a bit more sympathetic to Muslims.

But now, the Supreme Court has spoken, and the EO is back, at least in part. So what’s the story? Here is a nice summary (with some comments by yours truly) of where we are now, courtesy of Aaron Reichlin-Melnick at the American Immigration Council (and if you want to do something to help resist the travel ban, consider donating to the AIC–they are a terrific organization that does yeoman’s work in all areas of the immigration field):

“[The] the Court ruled that the government can only enforce the travel ban against foreign nationals who do not have ‘a credible claim of a bona fide relationship with a person or entity in the United States.’

“What this means is that individuals from the six countries [Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen] will be permitted to enter the United States if they have a ‘close familial relationship’ with someone already here or if they have a ‘formal, documented’ relationship with an American entity formed ‘in the ordinary course’ of business. However, the Court said that such relationships cannot be established for the purpose of avoiding the travel ban. The government will likely begin applying the travel ban in the limited fashion permitted by the Supreme Court on June 29, 2017.

“Who is likely to be allowed to enter the United States?

  • Individuals who have valid immigrant or non-immigrant visas issued on or before June 26, 2017: These individuals are not included in the travel ban [However, it seems to me that the decision leaves open the possibility of a new EO where such people are banned, and so I am concerned about that as well].
  • Individuals with visas coming to live or visit with family members: The Court’s order is clear that individuals who ‘wish [] to enter the United States to live with or visit a family member’ have close familial relationships. The Court used both a spouse and a mother-in-law as examples of qualifying relationships, but it is unclear whether more distant relatives would qualify.
  • Students who have been admitted to a U.S. university, workers who have accepted offers of employment with U.S. companies, and lecturers invited to address an American audience: The Court provided these three examples of individuals who have credible claims of a bona fide relationship to an American entity.
  • Other types of business travelers: It is unclear whether individuals with employment-based visas that do not require a petitioning employer will be able to demonstrate the requisite relationship with a U.S. entity.
  • Refugees: Most refugees processed overseas have family or other connections to the United States including with refugee resettlement agencies [I read this a bit more pessimistically–I do not know whether a pre-existing relationship with a resettlement agency is enough to avoid the ban]. The Court ruled that such individuals may not be excluded even if the 50,000 [person] cap on refugees has been reached or exceeded.

“Who may have trouble entering the United States?

  • Individuals who form bona fide relationships with individuals or entities in the United States after June 26, 2017: The Court’s decision is not clear on whether it is prospective or retrospective only. Individuals who form such relationships to avoid the travel ban are barred from entering.
  • Tourists: Nationals of the designated countries who are not planning to visit family members in the United States and who are coming for other reasons (including sight-seeing) may be barred from entering [I also read this more pessimistically–it seems to me that anyone from a banned country who does not merit an exception as discussed in the decision will be denied a visa, including people coming to the U.S. for business, pleasure or medical treatment].”

As I read the decision and the EO, asylum seekers who are already in the United States, as well as people who have asylum or have a green card based on asylum, are not blocked from traveling and re-entering the country. They are also not blocked from receiving additional immigration benefits (like asylum, a green card, a work permit, travel documents or naturalization). However, the proof will be in the implementation–how the Department of Homeland Security (“DHS”) interprets and applies the Supreme Court decision in actual, real-life cases.

In that regard, I agree with Justice Thomas, who “fear[s] that the Court’s remedy will prove unworkable” and will invite a “flood of litigation.” Who is a qualifying relative for purposes of this decision? Must that person be a U.S. citizen? Or can the person be a resident or an asylee (as in a refugee/asylee following-to-join petition, form I-730)? Could the qualifying relative simply be someone here on a work visa or a visitor visa? What if the person is here illegally? And what is a business relationship, and how do we know whether it is bona fide or created solely for the purpose of subverting the EO?

In short, while the Supreme Court decision is reasonably clear for some aliens, it leaves large gray areas that will require interpretation, meaning more litigation. Such litigation is expensive and time consuming, and so the Court’s decision is likely to leave some people who might qualify to come here stranded, depending on how DHS implements the EO, and depending on whether they can get legal help. Overall, that’s not a great situation to be in.

Finally, yesterday’s decision perhaps telegraphs where the Justices will come down on the merits of the EO when they look at the case this fall (the Court’s decision relates only to whether to stop implementation of the EO pending a decision on the merits). Three Justices (Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch) seem likely to allow a broader version of the ban to go forward. Given what we see in this decision, it may be that the other Justices are more skeptical of the ban and will limited it in some ways (and with luck, if the Trump Administration fears that the Court will limit the ban, it may just declare victory and allow the EO to expire, as originally intended).

All this remains to be seen, but for now, anyone from a banned country should pay attention to how the EO is implemented in the coming days, and perhaps avoid traveling outside the U.S. until we know more.

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