Last week, the Asylum Division changed the way it processes cases. Instead of interviewing asylum cases in the order they were filed (first-in, first-out), cases will now be interviewed on a last-in, first-out or LI-FO basis. We’ve been learning more about the reasons for this change, and I want to share what I’ve heard here. But before I get to that, I want to discuss another important change that has recently become apparent: The dramatic drop in grant rates for cases at most asylum offices.
The below chart compares asylum approval rates at the various asylum offices for the months of December 2016 and December 2017 (the most recent month when data is available). Admittedly, this is a snapshot of events, and an imperfect snapshot at that. Nevertheless, I think it illustrates a larger trend.
The left number in each column represents the number of cases approved during the month. The number on the right is the number of cases completed. The percentage shows the percentage of cases approved in that office. So in December 2016, Arlington approved 89 cases out of 317 completed, meaning that 28% of completed cases were approved. Conversely, 72% of applicants were denied asylum or referred to court, but that includes people who failed to show up for their interview, so the denial rate for people who actually appear is not as bad as it seems from the chart (as they say, in life, eighty percent of success is showing up). With that out of the way, here are the stats:
| Asylum Office | December 2016 | December 2017 |
| Arlington | 89/317 (28%) | 80/276 (29%) |
| Boston | 45/108 (42%) | 27/168 (16%) |
| Chicago | 75/186 (40%) | 80/362 (22%) |
| Houston | 28/119 (24%) | 58/437 (13%) |
| Los Angeles | 258/528 (49%) | 389/1195 (33%) |
| Miami | 73/243 (30%) | 76/650 (12%) |
| Newark | 118/358 (33%) | 155/866 (18%) |
| New York | 103/496 (21%) | 87/858 (10%) |
| New Orleans | 41/83 (49%) | 83/188 (44%) |
| San Francisco | 219/303 (72%) | 196/429 (46%) |
| United States | 1049/2741 (38.3%) | 1231/5429 (22.7%) |
So you can see that asylum grant rates are pretty dramatically down at most offices, and that for the entire country, they are down about 40% (from 38.3% to 22.7%) (you can see the source for these statistics here for 2016 and here for 2017). While the various grant rates could represent anomalies, they comport with larger trends, as shown in the next chart, which lists grant rates for the U.S. as a whole over the last few years:
| Fiscal Year | Asylum Grant Rate |
| FY 2015 | 45% |
| FY 2016 | 41% |
| FY 2017 | 34% |
| FY 2018 | 26% |
You can see from this chart that asylum grant rates have been dropping since FY 2015 (which began on October 1, 2014), but the decrease is more pronounced in the two most recent fiscal years (and of course, we are only a few months into FY 2018). Further, if the December 2017 data is any indicator, the grant rate is continuing to drop.
My first question–and be forewarned, I don’t really intend to answer these questions–is, Why is this happening? The temptation is to attribute the drop to President Trump’s anti-immigrant agenda, but I don’t find that explanation very convincing. First, grant rates began to fall long before Mr. Trump took office. Second, even after he was sworn in–in the second quarter of FY 2017–it takes months to implement new policies. Most asylum officers were hired pre-Trump, and that was especially true in FY 2017, since it takes time to hire and train new people. In addition, I have not observed any real changes in the pool of asylum officers that I meet (then again, the grant rate at my local office–Arlington–seems to have held steady, at least as illustrated in the first chart).
So if it’s not President Trump, what’s going on? One possibility–and I suspect this is the explanation that the Asylum Division favors–is that a higher portion of cases interviewed in recent years are meritless. In other words, as the backlog grew and delays became longer, people with weak cases were incentivized to file for asylum in order to get their employment authorization document (“EAD”). These people knew that their cases would take years, and so they filed mostly to obtain some status here and work legally. But now, as more and more of these people are reaching the interview stage, their cases are being denied. There is some evidence for this theory–according to the Asylum Division, of the 314,000 backlogged asylum cases, 50,000+ applications were filed more than 10 years after the applicant entered the United States. For various reasons, such cases are more likely to be meritless, and–even if they are legitimate–they are more likely to be denied due to the one year asylum filing deadline.
If this second explanation is correct, then perhaps there will be a silver lining to the recent change in how asylum cases are interviewed. If people get faster interviews, maybe fewer meritless applicants will seek asylum.
Whether or not this will work, we shall see. But a test is soon coming (probably). The Trump Administration has ended TPS (Temporary Protected Status) for El Salvador and other countries. It has also terminated the DACA program. This means that in the absence of a legislative fix, hundreds of thousands of people will have no way to avoid deportation other than to go into hiding or to seek asylum. You can bet that many of them will seek asylum (and indeed, given the violent countries from whence they came, many have legitimate reasons to fear return).
We know from a recent meeting at the Arlington Asylum Office that the end of TPS and DACA were two reasons for changing to the FI-LO process. But whether this new procedure will stem the potential tidal wave of applications, I have my doubts.
All this brings us to the final question (for today)–What does this mean for asylum seekers? As usual, I don’t have a good answer. People filing now can probably expect an interview soon and should submit all evidence so they are ready for the interview. However, if volume is too high, not everyone will get an interview. My impression is that if the interview is not scheduled within 21 days of receiving the receipt, then the case will “disappear” and will only be interviewed once the Asylum Office starts working on backlogged cases. It’s likely that some cases will disappear, since the number of people seeking asylum is still out-pacing the government’s ability to interview applicants. Also, there are (once again) increasing numbers of asylum seekers arriving at the U.S./Mexico border, and the Asylum Offices must devote resources to those cases as well.
Local offices control the expedite process and the short list, and it seems that most offices will continue to offer those options. However, the Asylum Division is expecting fewer “no shows” with the new system, and so there may be less slots available for expedited or short-listed cases.
Finally, under the pre-December 2014 system, when an asylum case was sent to Immigration Court, the judge would schedule a quick hearing date for any applicant who had not yet received his EAD (in an effort to dissuade meritless applicants from seeking asylum merely to get an EAD). It looks like the Immigration Courts will again be doing this same thing, and so if you have a fast asylum interview and you are referred to court, you should be prepared for a fast hearing date in court.
For what it’s worth, my impression is that the Asylum Division is well aware of the pain it will inflict by re-ordering how asylum cases are interviewed. But they are looking at the “big picture” and they hope that changing to a FI-LO system will reduce meritless applications and ultimately benefit legitimate asylum seekers. I hope they are correct, but until then, I fear things will be worse before they get better.
Hi Jason,
I filed my asylum at the Newark office early this January. I did my biometrics and my interview is set for February 11th. I guess I was lucky enough not to fall in the backlog. However, I come from Morocco. And because not so many Moroccans apply for asylum does that affect my chances of being granted? Also, given that I have an attorney who will be present during the interview- is it possible that the AO will ask inappropriate or otherwise unnecessary questions?
Thank you for responding and for all the advices here on The Asylumist.
If you have a basis to fear return to Morocco, you can win asylum from that country. But not many people seek asylum from there, so you may need to provide evidence about the danger, and if the danger comes from a non-government actor, you need to show that the government cannot or will not protect you and that there is nowhere safe in the country for you to life. As for the AOs, they are generally good and act professionally. If you have a lawyer, even not-so-good AOs will usually behave. Take care, Jason
Hi jason I applied for asylum back in 2016 in san francisco didn’t receive any scheduled interview yet I was thinking if it’s possible to expediate a request for an interview cause I suffer from depression and I am taking psychiatric medications
You can try – I wrote about that on March 30, 2017. Maybe that posting would help. Take care, Jason
I am from Cameroon. I just applied for asylum, because the crisis back home negatively affected my funds, so I could not continue with my studies. I worked with a brewery company full-time and a teacher part-time. At the embassy,I only mentioned teaching because it was in line with my program I was coming to study. On the other hand, I only mentioned the brewery company in my asylum application because that is where I faced persecution. How can this affect my case?
The asylum officer will be aware of everything you told to the embassy, so you should correct this error. If you have not submitted an affidavit yet, you can correct it in the affidavit, and include an explanation about why you failed to mention both jobs. Otherwise, maybe you can just submit a letter explaining the error, along with evidence about the jobs. I don’t think it is a big deal, as long as you correct it in advance of the interview. Take care, Jason
Hello,
I am part of my father’s asylum application. We submitted it on December 2017 and are currently waiting on an interview date. Our case is in the Arlington Asylum office. Originally from Venezuela, my father is a retired capitain of our army who was always part of the opposition, and part of the Party Vuntad Popular. We are currently located in Atlanta, but are thinking of moving pherharps to Boston, because we have read that, in case our case gets denied with USCIS, their courts are kinder than Atlanta’s. Would you recommend this and what is your experience with venezuelan asylum cases?
Venezuela is sending more asylum seekers to the US than any other country. I have not seen data on the success rate, but given country conditions there, I would expect that most cases should have a decent chance of success. Obviously, it depends on the facts of the case. As for your location, it is true that if your case is denied and you go to court, Atlanta is not a good place to be. They deny the vast majority of cases. Whether you want to move is up to you. Given that you filed in December 2017, I doubt you will have an interview any time soon, and so there may be no rush, but that is up to you. Take care, Jason
Hi, I gave my interview on September 12 in San Francisco and it took approximately two hours. The officer told me to come and pick the results in two weeks. I was not told by the officer that in case the decision is not made, I will get a mail from them to wait for the decision.
My lawyer was worried about two things. First, he said the usual interview session is 1 hour and 2 hours gives a red signal. Second, the officer didn’t even talk that the decision might take more than two weeks.
By the way, I am from Afghanistan.
Needed your comment on this.
That is not my experience. I do not know if I ever attended an interview that takes one hour. Normally, they are 2 or 3 hours, or more. So I do not see that as a bad sign at all. As for the time frame, the officers do not know, and they do not usually give any sense about the time, so I do not see that as a negative either. We do many Afghan cases, and it is common to have long delays after the interview, especially for men. However, the very large majority of such decision we have seen have been approvals. Good luck, Jason
Hi Jason thanks for your kind responds to people I love it,please I will like to know How long it will take for interview after one has applied for asylum.
Under the new LIFO system, many people receive an interview after a month or two. If you do not, it means you are in the backlog, and the waiting time is unknown. Some offices will be faster than others, but no one can really tell you the wait time. Take care, Jason
Does it matter or does the US Gov or immigration check to question you on asking why you send x amount of money to your family as a pending asylum applicant when you are working? Is there a limit in sending money to your family in the country you fear of returning to? Besides, if you manage to raise support for other children or young people that were affect for similar situation you ran from to come to the US and send to help them through your family will they have problem with it? Also will it be wrong or affect you if you show to the interviewer what support you been involve with to help less prevailage kids back at home? Or will it in anyway help your case positively or negative? I had been supporting and advocating for young kids that has long been affected by a tradition in my home country and it was at one of the meeting I was attacked and been follow until I ran to the US for my Life. What do you think sir? This support is expected to be done secretly that the traditional people will not know but most of the people in need of the support are also traditional and poor people. Beside, they try getting to my family questioning about my return which put fear in them while I am away in the US.
I have never heard them ask about sending money to your country, and I do not know about limits, if any, for sending money out of the US. Supporting needy people back home sounds like a good thing, as long as the US government is confident that you are not supporting any terrorists or other bad guys. As to your asylum claim, that might be a basis for a case, but from what you told me, I really can’t comment, as I do not know enough about your situation. One important point in any asylum case is “nexus” – I wrote about that on March 13, 2014. Take care, Jason
Hi Jason,
I applied for asylum 3 years ago when I was on F1 status. I read somewhere that when you apply for asylum, your visa status doesn’t matter after that because your status changes to pending asylum. My F1 visa just ended last month. I saw your reply to one of the people here, you told them pending asylum status is not enough. I am confused by this. Can you renew your F1 visa while you are under pending asylum status?
If that is the case, for people who come here on visiting visa and they are supposed to leave the country every six months. How are they going to maintain their Visa if they apply for asylum and can’t leave the country?
Thanks for your time,
Pat
In the past, you could remain in F-1 status during the time your asylum case is pending. The new rule, which seems like it is not going into effect yet, and which is unclear, may mean that if asylum is denied, you would then be considered out of status. Of course, if you let your F-1 status lapse (by leaving school, for example), you will then be out of status. If you have a pending asylum case, you are allowed to remain here until the case is completed. Whether you can get back in to F-1 status now that your status is done, I do not know. Talk to the school, as they know the most about F-1 visas. For people who come on a visiting visa and apply for asylum, there status ends (usually after 6 months in the US) and they remain here based on the pending asylum. Take care, Jason
Hello Jason, I am so lost right now. I’m still a f1status but i have applied for asylum 2 years ago. My lawyer told me that until i still have my f1 status valid i can’t be granted asylum, is that true ? I am really scared of loosing my status tho. Also, my boyfriend recently got granted for the asylum a year ago to be honest, if we get married now, can that be helpful to me ?
I’m so lost and afraid right now, please give me some advice Thank you very much
The delay in your case is probably the same delay faced by 300,000+ people who are waiting for their interview. It is false that a person cannot be granted asylum if they are in valid F-1 status – we have had many such cases granted. If your lawyer really told you that (and maybe you misunderstood the lawyer’s advice), then I am concerned that the lawyer does not know much about asylum and you may want to find a new lawyer. As for the boyfriend, once he has a GC, and if you get married, he can petition for you to get a GC, but you have to maintain your lawful status (F-1 or something else – pending asylum alone is not enough) the entire time until you file for the GC – the waiting period for a GC person to file for a spouse is usually about 1.5 years – you can Google “DOS visa bulletin” and learn about that. Alternatively, you could leave the US to get your GC if he files for you. Talk to a lawyer about your options. Take care, Jason
I have applied for asylum in Jan 2016 in NY and still haven’t heard about my interview since then. Its been 2 and half years now. During these years i have met a guy who is green card holder and we plan to settle soon. What will happen if I get married to him ?.How soon can i get a green card ? What status will i have? Is marrying a better option or just waiting for my interview is better?
Will be waiting for ur answer .
Thank you
I will post something on this topic in the next couple weeks, but the short answer is that if you entered the US with a visa and do not have any criminal or immigration issues, and if the spouse is a US citizen, you should be able to get your GC based on marriage. Talk to a lawyer to be sure. You can just file the documents for the marriage-based GC and once you get the GC, you can withdraw the asylum case. Alternatively, you can wait for the asylum case, though no one can say when you will get an interview or a decision, especially since the new LIFO policy went into effect. Take care, Jason
hellp jason, its me milan from nepal. actually i became out of status from my f1 status recently. i am here in san fransisco and trying to file asylum.what is the approval rate right now?
i still have like 3 months left to reinstate back to my f1 satus but i think why not to take the risk. what do u think will be the better option?
Last I saw, the SF office still had the highest approval rate, but it was going down. You might Google “Asylum Division Quarterly Stakeholder Meeting 2018” and find some data. As for the better option, it depends whether you want asylum or want to remain as a student, but keep in mind the one-year asylum bar, and if the re-instatement fails, and it has been more than one year since last arrival in the US, your case could be denied as untimely. I wrote about this on January 18, 2017. Take care, Jason
Is it true that on interview if officer is not satisfied, it is marked down as interview did not happen, and applicants are ordered for deportation.
It is not true. They have to give a reason for the denial and have that reason approved by a supervisor. They do not have the power to deport someone. If the person is out of status, they have to see a judge, who can either grant asylum or other relief, or order the person deported. Take care, Jason
I have filed my case on November 2016 but still nothing appears still no interview how many years do u think it will take am very disappointed waiting cause my husband and my baby are in my home town and I miss them so much
No one knows how long you will wait if you filed in 2016, but it will probably be a long time. You can try expedite your case – I wrote about that on March 30, 2017. Take care, Jason
what are the chances of approval from uganda particulary political asylum at arlington office
It depends on the case, but I do not think such cases are any more difficult today than they were under the prior Administration. Take care, Jason
Hi there, I am from Yemen, I plan to seek asylum in Phoenix Arizona. Since I am a Muslim female coming from a banned country what is the likelihood that I get it. I am afraid of going through the whole process. I tried to look up statistics of 2017/ 2018 granted Asylum cases in Phoenix but couldn’t find much. I was told that New york and San Francisco is a good place to seek asylum most cases are granted.
I spoke to a lawyer and she said I had a strong case, yet I kinda felt uncomfortable to trust her. I am looking for good asylum lawyers in Phoenix if anyone could recommend! A well-experienced one. thanks
I do not know a lawyer in AZ, but we have done a lot of cases from Yemen and mostly they are successful. It depends on the specifics of the case, and the fact that you are from a “banned” country will probably not make much difference. Take care, Jason
I tried to call your law firm today to this no. (202) 328-1353 .. but no one picked up, instead there was a voice mail to leave a message, which I wasn’t comfortable to do so.
I hope I could access your office asap, cause my visa is expiring so soon and I am running out of time. I need to file my case within this month. Thanks
You can try calling my assistant at 202-328-1350. However, unless you leave a message, no one will know that you called. Take care, Jason
Would your office be able to handle my case when it is in Arizona? if yes, would you be able to send an attorney to represent me during the interview (I will cover the travel cost). Thanks
to represent my case** during the interview
We can, but normally we do not do that, as it is expensive to travel for an interview, and the attorney’s job at the interview is pretty minimal. If you want to contact me, you can reach me at jdzubow@dzubowlaw.com. Take care, Jason
Hii Jason
I had my interview in May 10th
And the officer told me to come and pick up the decision after two weeks , but before that time they sent me a mail saying not required to appear and changing from pick up to mail
And till now i didn’t recieve anything from them , do u think it will be take long time ?!
This is very common and has no relation to whether the case will be granted or denied. You can contact them and ask about the status of your case. You can find the contact info/email for the asylum office if you follow the link at right called Asylum Office Locator. Take care, Jason
hi jason hope u be fine .
i need some information about applying EAD i filled my I589 is pending since march 2 2018 how long it takes to get EAD approved from Arlington office .Do i have to apply by myself or i have to apply though my attorney .i was previously granted refugee status in 2001 but then i left usa in 2004 i already have my SSN which was issued in 2001 .
great thanks
EADs based on asylum pending seem to take 1 to 4 months. They are not filed in Arlington, so hopefully you filed it according to the instructions. If you got your receipt, you should be fine and the EAD should hopefully come soon. Take care, Jason
Hi Jason.
Let me give details of my process to encourage others
09/22/2017 = Asylum Application submitted
09/22/2017 = Application received by USCIS
02/15/2018 = Applied for EAD
02/22/2018 = Request for Expedited interview sent
03/21/2018 = EAD Received
04/03/2018 = Called asylum office to ascertain about my expedited request
04/15/2018 = Contacted two Senators to assist with expediting request
04/22/2018 = Got letters from both Senators indicating they have contacted Asylum office on my behalf
05/30/2018 = Got a letter from the Senator indicating that the Asylum office responded informing him that my Expedited request has been approved and I have been placed on a list to be contacted approximately 3 weeks before the interview date.
I’m waiting patiently to get a letter for Interview.
Applications and every info filled by myself with the help of the information I gathered here on ASYLUMIST.
Thank you Jason for being the voice of the voiceless and hope for the hopeless.
Thank you for sharing this – hopefully you will get your interview soon. Good luck, Jason
I ‘d like to repeat the last sentence. “Thank you Jason for being the voice of the voiceless and hope for the hopeless.”
My husband’s expedited request was denied recently. He filed application in Oct.2015 and we are in the black hole now. In god we trust. We just believe that God will give us the best.
You can try to put your name on the short list, if your asylum office has a short list. You can contact them to ask. You can find their contact info if you follow the link at right called Asylum Office Locator. Also, if there is a new reason to expedite or you have new evidence, you can try that again. Take care, Jason
Jason, thanks for your all responds. I am recommending you as a lawyer anytime to anyone. I wished I knew you earlier.
BTW, do you have any sense of Iranian asylum cases? Do they get approval more, or denial or send to the court more?
It depends on the case – We have had good success with such cases, including political and religious cases. But I do think things generally are getting more difficult, so that will likely affect Iranian cases too. Take care, Jason
Hi as Iranian did you get your interview yet? Any advise ? Any decision yet ?
I applied in November 2015. Had my Interview on October 2017.
Still waiting for decision! So frustrating time.
When and where have you applied? No interview yet?
Hello, dear Arjang. I am Sara. your fiancee Sanam and family lied to you. I’m not married . Five years ago, Sanam gave me an iPhone and he created the Apple ID himself and did not give me the password, then I returned the phone to him and the Apple ID that I corresponded with you, and the meeting when you came to Iran to sell. Your respected mother earth. After that, that account was under Sanam’s control, and if you received an email or correspondence from me, that person was Sanam. Sanam corresponded with you instead of me. I am a member of the Iranian Science Association and a researcher. My two theories were accepted. Along with Michivu Kakuvu, I won the title of the world’s best contributor in the seven platforms of Mr. Elon Musk and won valuable awards. But until now, because I could not take action to transfer the winnings, several points were stolen from me by my bad friends. Currently, I have to receive the Tesla car. But Sanam did not cooperate and even stole and sold the results of my years of research from my phone. Arjang I am surrounded by wolf people who did the worst to stop my life. I do not have your address and no one gave me your address. They even called me crazy. Arjang, whatever decision you have made, you must be present and say it yourself. I do not accept anyone’s words. I am trying to meet Mr. Elon Musk. We are very close friends with him. He wants my immigration for himself. This is the reality . In the future, the news of this issue will be published. I have to meet you. I saw death once because of not seeing you. My contact number is +989224662202 . I am at home now. Karaj, Kianmehr, Belovar Baharan, Shahrak Marwarid, block six, twenty-six units,
I’m planning on applying for assylum. I’m from Pakistan. I’m scared I might be denied. What are my chances. Also, how long would it take to get a hearing from the judge if my case gets denied?
Thanks
There is no way to evaluate that without understanding the specifics of the case. You might want to talk to a lawyer about that. In general, we have had pretty good success with Pakistani cases, and so certainly if you have a fear of return, you should have a chance for success in an asylum case. If the case gets referred to a judge, the wait time is very variable – it could be less than a year, but more commonly, it is 1 to 3 years, and it can be longer (depending on the judge and the case). Take care, Jason
Arlington is vary successfully for Asylum granted. Are your offer /office there.
I mean it’s in Virginia, Washington DC not other places
The statistics above only give a very general idea, and they are now a bit dated, so I do not know what the latest data shows. I do most of my cases in Arlington, which is just outside Washington, DC. Take care, Jason
Jason, Is calling Asylum office impolite to inquire the decision? or email or send a letter is better? Do you have contact info of New Orleans Asylum office? It is not said in the Asylum Office Locator. Thanks.
It is not impolite, but people rarely answer the phone. I always email or go in person. I think the NO office is a sub-office of Houston, TX, so you would contact them. You can find their contact info if you follow the link at right called Asylum Office Locator. Take care, Jason
Hi Jason,
Thanks for this website. After two years waiting, my interview with asylum office in New Orleans was on October 2017. It is now more than 6 month waiting for decision, although the interview was so smooth and the officer mentioned they will mail their decision or refer to a court.
A Congressman followed with asylum office in February and the answer was: case is in background check.
What is the best strategy now? Should I go to New Orleans and follow up? or just be patient and wait?
Thanks.
Jason,
I need to add that I am working with a government sector now and had been background check, earlier I was student and I was with OPT status when I applied as asylum.
You can email them, call or go in-person to follow up. You can find their contact info if you follow the link at right called Asylum Office Locator. If that does not work, try the USCIS Ombudsman – a link is at right. If all else fails, you can talk to a lawyer about a mandamus lawsuit. Take care, Jason
Thanks for your prompt respond. Is long waiting time usual for more cases recently or not usual?
Waiting a long time in the system is nothing new. The government keeps reshuffling, but the long waits remain. Take care, Jason